Phillies: GM’s double-barreled trades and signings
For four consecutive seasons, the twofold strategy of Phillies general manager Matt Klentak has involved rotation and bullpen pieces through swaps and free agency.
Doubled-up approach:
Klentak’s offseason pattern for the Philadelphia Phillies has been to acquire two of each: starters, setup men or left-handed relievers. Additionally, when it comes to moundsmen, the exec revealed two years ago his expectation: He needs one hurler to be effective and healthy.
IN OTHER WORDS: “There is no fool like a careless gambler who starts taking victory for granted.” – Hunter S. Thompson
Constructing a roster is the equation’s first half, but performance and health determine the GM’s skill and good fortune. Of course, writers and fans should judge and base the results on the organization’s state when spring training begins.
Unfortunately, many locals harbor an improbable reality because players suffer injuries and have off years. And, yes, even stars must stick to a strict regimen during the winter, or they’ll pay the price in the next campaign. For instance, 2008 had produced demands on Cole Hamels‘ offseason time and affected his 2009.
In New York –believe it or not– some Yankees supporters blame the exec when he doesn’t have a backup plan for an injured important player. But management would need more than a 40-man roster to handle every eventuality, and who could replace a star cleanup hitter? Yeah, mission impossible!
As for Klentak, he believes in pitching alternatives because he has stated anticipating only one of the two hurlers will be productive for six months. And his thinking has merit. So each campaign, he has repeated this twofold method, and 2019 is no exception.
To illustrate, Klentak added Jeremy Hellickson from the Arizona Diamondbacks and Charlie Morton from the Pittsburgh Pirates for 2016 through salary dumps. And the following season, the decision-maker re-upped Hellickson with a qualifying offer before acquiring Clay Buchholz from the Boston Red Sox.
For 2018, Klentak inked Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter through free agency, but he only needed one to bolster the back end of the pen. Regarding ’19, the GM has dealt for two southpaw relievers: James Pazos from the Seattle Mariners and Jose Alvarez from the Los Angeles Angels.
Starting to win:
For the Phillies, Klentak’s approach in 2016 and 2017 was one of two starters would be productive and healthy. So, since he continues to rely on this method, how has his road map worked for the past three years?
In his first summer here, Klentak had success with Hellickson, who frequently pitched more than six frames and was a veteran presence atop the five-man staff. He recorded six innings 21 times with 10 for more than six frames: The right-hander made 31 starts not including his short season-ending appearance.
As for Morton, he only had four April outings because he suffered a campaign-ending injury leading to hamstring surgery. Translation: Klentak had one hit and one miss in his first effort as a general manager. Yeah, 50 percent.
2016 results:
- Hellickson: 32 Gms., 189 Inn. and 12-10 with a 3.71 ERA.
- Morton: 4 Gms., 17 1/3 Inn. and 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA.
2017 results:
- Hellickson: 20 Gms., 112 1/3 Inn. and 6-5 with a 4.73 ERA.
- Buchholz: 2 Gms., 7 1/3 Inn. and 0-1 with a 12.27 ERA.
Despite going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA for five solid April performances, Hellickson subsequently went 2-5 here with a 5.79 ERA. And after the Phils had moved him on July 29, he finished the 162 with a 2-6 mark and a 6.97 ERA for the Baltimore Orioles.
On the other hand, Buchholz produced two clunkers in 2017 before suffering a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow. So, Klentak came up empty: One was ineffective and the other had landed on the disabled list. And neither pitched beyond July for the red pinstripes.
Relief spells victory:
Entering ’18, the Phillies had Hector Neris, Luis Garcia and Adam Morgan at the back end of the pen, but Klentak needed a solid setup man. And, again, the exec added two hurlers, but this time Neshek and Hunter were relievers.
Yes, Klentak re-signed Neshek after trading him to the Colorado Rockies the previous July. But the right-hander entered 2018 on the DL due to a right shoulder strain before making his first appearance on July 1. So keep in mind, he was excellent for half a season.
2018 results:
- Neshek: 30 Gms., 24 1/3 Inn., a 2.59 ERA, 5 Saves and 6 Holds.
- Hunter: 65 Gms., 64 Inn., a 3.80 ERA, 4 Saves and 25 Holds.
As for Hunter, he had a 3.80 ERA overall and a 3.00 ERA in the second half. And since fans weren’t expecting David Robertson numbers, Hunter qualifies as a front-office success. So, 2018’s result was 1.5 out of two, but for his three campaigns Klentak had acceptable outcomes in 2.5 out of six for his goal of three.
Regarding ’19, the situation is far different than a year ago due to Seranthony Dominguez‘s arrival, Neris’ dramatic improvement after his reactivation, and Robertson’s signing. Plus Victor Arano‘s emergence is another breakthrough for the relief corps. Ergo, Neshek and Hunter are available after one summer.
2018 stats:
- Pazos: 60 Gms., 50 Inn., a 2.88 ERA and 19 Holds.
- Alvarez: 76 Gms., 63 Inn., a 2.71 ERA and 14 Holds.
Klentak acquired portside relievers Pazos and Alvarez for his fourth season with the same method: one to be healthy and effective. To date, the exec had one of two in ’16, zero of two in ’17 and 1.5 of two in ’18. But what do many always expect of a real GM? Two for two!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Phillies statistical results toward 80 percent:
- Neshek: 24 good, 2 so-so and 1 blowup out of 30 total for 86.7%
- Hunter: 40 good, 7 so-so and 0 blowups out of 65 total for 72.3%
- A blowup is 4 ER for less than 2 innings or 3 ER for less than 1 inning.
- Bad outings are the numerical difference.
- Rule of thumb is 4 good and so-so outings out of every 5 or 80%.
Phillies statistical results from new left-handers toward 80 percent:
- Pazos: 44 good, 4 so-so and 1 blowup out of 60 total for 80.0%
- Alvarez: 58 good, 3 so-so and 2 blowups out of 76 total for 80.3%
Starters statistical results as Phillies toward 80 percent:
- Hellickson for 2016: 20 good and 6 so-so out of 32 for 81.4%
- Morton: 2 good and 0 so-so out of 3 for 66.7%
- Hellickson for 2017: 11 good and 3 so-so out of 20 for 70.0%
- Buchholz: 0 good and 0 so-so out of 2 for 00.0%
Phillies starters:
Hellickson, 31.5:
- 2016: 32 Gms., 189 Inn., 12-10, a 3.71 ERA, a 3.98 FIP, a 3.99 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 3.2 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
- 2017: 30 Gms., 164 Inn., 8-11, a 5.43 ERA, a 5.77 FIP, a 5.51 xFIP, a 5.37 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.
- Morton, 35: 4 Gms., 17 1/3 Inn., 1-1, a 4.15 ERA, a 3.09 FIP, a 3.01 xFIP, a 3.56 SIERA, a 0.4 fWAR and a 1.33 WHIP.
- Buchholz, 34.5: 2 Gms., 7 1/3 Inn., 0-1, a 12.27 ERA, a 4.79 FIP, a 6.66 xFIP, a 5.82 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 2.59 WHIP.
Phillies setup men:
- Neshek, 38: 30 Gms., 24 1/3 Inn., a 2.59 ERA, 5 Saves, 6 Holds, a 3.61 FIP, a 4.99 xFIP, a 4.51 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
- Hunter, 32.5: 65 Gms., 64 Inn., a 3.80 ERA, 4 Saves, 25 Holds, a 3.63 FIP, a 4.01 xFIP, a 3.69 SIERA, a 0.7 fWAR and a 1.25 WHIP.
New Phillies southpaw relievers:
- Pazos, 27.5: 60 Gms., 50 Inn., a 2.88 ERA, 19 Holds, a 3.60 FIP, a 4.15 xFIP, a 3.75 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.24 WHIP.
- Alvarez, 29.5: 76 Gms., 63 Inn., a 2.71 ERA, 14 Holds, a 3.05 FIP, a 3.98 xFIP, a 3.78 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.16 WHIP.
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