5 reasons for the San Francisco Giants to rebuild right now
We look at five reasons why the time is right for the San Francisco Giants to start their rebuild and look towards the future.
The San Francisco Giants have tried to piece together a contender for a couple of years now, but it has not worked with 64 and 73 wins the past two seasons.
Farhan Zaidi took over as the leader of the front office this offseason. He comes from the Dodgers who currently have a stranglehold on the division. The hope is that he helps bring the Giants into this new age of baseball where analytics are a priority.
So far, nothing has been made official about the direction of this team. While the lack of offseason moves would lead one to believe they are ready to rebuild, the front office has not said that’s the case.
The silence there could be because they don’t want to scare off part of the fanbase, and to make sure the stadium is filled at least to begin the 2019 season.
Maybe they will try to sell the fans on the hope that if everyone stays healthy this year there is a chance this team could reach the Wild Card game.
They could base that on the fact that guys like Evan Longoria and Jeff Samardzija bounce back, and Brandon Belt finally becomes the offensive threat we hoped he would be.
But let’s be realistic, this team has no hope in 2019. It’s past time for them to rebuild, but if they need more evidence why that’s the case, here are five reasons.
San Francisco Giants – The Core is Done
I hate to be the one to break this to San Francisco Giants fans, but the core of this team is finished.
Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Madison Bumgarner are still considered the core of this team from World Series past.
They all are now either in their 30s or about to be in their 30s, so you have to figure they are on the decline of their careers in the non-steroid era of baseball. The days of hoping those players performing at an All-Star level are over.
And to depress the fanbase, even more, I think we are definitely seeing the decline for Posey — at least as a catcher. It looks like he is on the Joe Mauer path where he hits .280-.300 but doesn’t give you much power.
Bumgarner is probably the only one of this group who could still perform at an All-Star level and he’s on the last year of his team-friendly contract.
And when I say All-Star level, I’m talking about the production. Just because Giants fans stuff the box and make all their players All-Stars, that does not mean they are playing at an All-Star level.
I could understand why the front office wanted to try to make another run the past couple of seasons with these guys, but that time is over.
The Next Wave is Not Coming for the San Francisco Giants
What helped the San Francisco Giants go on an epic run at the beginning of this decade was that they always had another wave of great players coming through the farm system. But after years of bad scouting and drafting, that well has dried up and there is no help on the way.
As we already mentioned, the core that helped bring the Giants their last World Series is on their way out, but yet there is no one ready to replace them.
The San Francisco Giants have one of the worst farm systems in all of baseball. And the prospects they have brought up to the majors have not panned out yet.
Tyler Beede and Chris Shaw were recently two of the top prospects in their organization, but they both struggled in their first taste of the big leagues — albeit small sample sizes.
Right now, the only legit prospect they have in their organization is their second overall pick from last year’s draft in Joey Bart. There is a chance he could be the replacement for Posey.
Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez each had solid rookie campaigns in 2018, but I don’t think anyone sees them replacing Bumgarner in the rotation.
They’ve had a lot of solid outfield prospects over the last several years, but none of them have lived up to the hype so far.
It’s hard to sustain success when you don’t have the next wave coming through the farm system. You can’t rely on free agency to fill all your holes.
The Giants had success by building from within, and they need to get back to that mentality.
The Dodgers Reign Supreme
I know I’m not making any friends with San Francisco Giants fans right now, and this won’t help, but the Los Angeles Dodgers have a stranglehold on the NL West right now.
The Dodgers have been to back-to-back World Series and there is no sign of them slowing down. They have everything that the Giants had back in 2010. They have a great group of veterans with plenty of incoming talent through the farm system.
As we are seeing now with the Giants, that pendulum will likely swing at some point and the well will run dry. But for now, no one can touch the Dodgers in the division. They already look like the overwhelming favorites to win the division this season, and it will probably be the same in 2020.
It would be smart for the Giants to start rebuilding now and looking towards the 2021 season when hopefully the Dodgers reign will be coming to an end.
The Colorado Rockies are also still competing for at least one more season with Nolan Arenado, and then perhaps they take a step back.
The San Diego Padres are already ahead of the Giants and looking to start competing in the 2020 season. And the Arizona Diamondbacks have started a mini-rebuild focusing on competing in a couple of years.
So the Giants need to wake up and realize what other teams in the division are doing. They can’t compete with the Dodgers and Rockies right now, so start building towards when you can compete.
Times Are Changing
Another reason the San Francisco Giants need to rebuild right now is that the game of baseball is changing, and the Giants have yet to adjust. The age of analytics is upon us in baseball whether we like it or not.
Zaidi was brought in for this very purpose, to take the Giants into the new generation of baseball. However, it’s going to take some time for him to filter all of those ideas into the organization.
And to be honest, it might take a new manager. While I love Bruce Bochy, I think it’s time for both sides to move on.
From shifting to building the optimal lineup, the San Francisco Giants have to do a better job of playing in this new age of baseball.
The recipe for winning in baseball is still the same — pitching, defense, and timely hitting. That’s what the Giants used to win three World Series in five years. But the way teams get that production is changing, and that’s where the Giants are falling behind.
Teams who win also know how to create power throughout the lineup, while not sacrificing the ability to put balls in play.
The Red Sox were ninth in the league in home runs last year and had the fifth fewest strikeouts. That’s the type of lineup you need to build in today’s game to be successful.
San Francisco had the exact opposite last year with the fifth most strikeouts in baseball and the second-fewest home runs — that has to change.
Losing the San Francisco Giants Fanbase
I think people forget that the San Francisco Giants haven’t always had one of the most supportive fan bases in the league. In the 90s they consistently ranked towards the bottom of the National League in attendance.
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It wasn’t until the 2000 season when the Giants started to be near the top of the league in attendance, and that had a lot to do with Barry Bonds breaking home run records and AT&T Park opening.
From 2000-2007 they ranked in the top five in terms of attendance in the NL. That picked back up in 2010 when they started their run of three World Series in five years.
Since then they’ve been in the top five every year in the NL in attendance. However, last year was the first time since 2010 that they dipped people 40,000 fans per game.
They still drew over 3 million fans last year but averaged just under 39,000 fans per game.
Their sellout streak of 530 games ended on July 17, 2017, starting a downward trend in attendance, which coincides with the team’s current lack of winning.
The longer the front office goes without giving any kind of direction for with this team is going, the more fans they are going to lose.
Next. J.T. Realmuto: Down to Three Teams, Odds for Each Contender. dark
At this point, I feel like Giants fans just want to know that there is a plan in place. And I’ve stated very clearly in this article, that plan should be to sell off any valuable assets and rebuild for the future.