Which MLB staffs are built to throw strikes in 2019? From 30 to 1, a review
The most important pitch in baseball, the saying goes, is strike one.
Statistically, that’s not actually true; strike two is a bigger determinant of an at-bat’s outcome in MLB. But hey, let’s roll with the premise. Plainly, throwing strikes is a very good thing.
That fact raises an interesting question: Which mound staffs exercise the best control? Conversely, which ones have the most trouble finding the plate?
To make that determination, we’ve examined the statistical profiles of every pitcher projected to be a rotation starter for each MLB team. Based on a projection of the number of starts they’re likely to make in 2019, we’ve calculated the percentage of strikes likely to be thrown by the rotation as a whole.
For background, just under two-thirds of pitches in a typical major league game are strikes, either because the batter swung at them or because the umpire said so.
It should be no surprise that a list of the most reliable strike-throwing rotation starters looks very much like a list of the best starting pitchers. The name at the very top of the list, however, probably is a surprise; it’s Joe Musgrove, who will be in Pittsburgh’s rotation this season. In 2018, 70.3 percent of Musgrove’s more than 1,600 pitches were strikes.
Given that Musgrove only went 6-9 with a 4.06 ERA for the Pirates, that fact may call into question the actual value of throwing strikes. The remainder of the majors’ top 5, however, argues differently. Here are those five most accurate strike-throwers:
1 Joe Musgrove, Pittsburgh, 70.3
2 Miles Mikolas, St. Louis, 69.3
3 Nathan Eovaldi, Tampa Bay-Boston, 69.2
4. Justin Verlander, Houston, 69.0
T-5 Max Scherzer, Washington, 68.9
T-5, Jacob deGrom, New York Mets, 68.9
But one pitcher does not a successful rotation make. From worst to best, here’s a current projection of the most accurate rotations in the majors. Note that not all rotations have taken a final form yet, and note also that not all likely free agent starters have signed. One procedural point: If it was impossible to predict a pitcher who would fill one of a team’s 162 rotation slots, those slots are indicated by question marks and scored as if the replacement pitcher threw strikes on 60 percent of pitches. That is toward the low end of the 2018 scale.
The heading information shows the team as well as its rank and the percentage of strikes projected to be thrown by its 2019 rotation.