Phillies: February’s dollars vs. trades
While the Phillies faithful are on pins and needles regarding a major free-agent signing, general manager Matt Klentak is busy motivating his contemporaries with other bullpen options.
Countdown to Clearwater:
The Philadelphia Phillies front office is adapting to the changing market for free agency, trades and competitive-balance penalties. Today, franchises must study their 29 competitors’ rosters, financial situations and operating philosophies.
IN OTHER WORDS: “The best decision-makers are always armed with the best information and data!” – George Raveling
Until the red pinstripes add a big bat, the everyday eight will be the same from February 12 through March 27. And the rotation, barring a signing, will be a one-two punch plus four hurlers for the other three slots. So, for now, the current action involves the Phils’ relief corps and their competition’s.
While the hometown nine have the financial resources for an expensive, long-term commitment, many clubs are at or near their limit. Additionally, Luxury Tax consequences are not to most team owners’ liking: Other organizations are more budget-conscious due to their present circumstances.
With spring training just days away, most franchises have proceeded with their offseason objectives despite another slow free-agent market. In other words, they move on from players and agents who don’t make decisions within a reasonable time frame. Yeah, Scott Boras!
As for Klentak, he has determined the value of Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter and Juan Nicasio. But will he reassess his expectations from November before mid-March if it means inking a left-handed starter? Well, that might just be the reality the exec will be facing.
Even though the Boras Corporation doesn’t have a reliever currently involved, they are in the picture with a slugger and a rotation portsider. So, Klentak might swap Neshek and/or Hunter to sign a southpaw for the five-man staff. Translation: the GM would take a lower offer for either if the overall dollars work.
On the other hand, the red pinstripes have three extra relievers and could sustain three activation delays into April due to injuries. But another club may also experience an unexpected bullpen need for an arm or two. And if they do, Klentak will have the upper hand in negotiations to finalize a deal.
Competing GM:
For Phillies fans, unfortunately, the only named relief-pitching suitors of the 10 were the four who signed hurlers: the Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners and Arizona Diamondbacks. But while the Cubs are limiting their spending, the Rangers, Mariners and Diamondbacks are rebuilding.
Clubs and inked pitchers on one-year contracts:
- Cubs: Brad Brach for $4.35 million.
- Diamondbacks: Greg Holland for $3.5 million.
- Rangers: Shawn Kelley for $2.75 million.
- Mariners: Hunter Strickland for $1.3 million.
Regarding those six franchises, seven are possibilities in three different categories. The Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians and Colorado Rockies need bullpen help, but they have spending limits due to their financial restraints. As for Boston, they don’t want to trigger the highest tax rate by exceeding $246 million.
Meanwhile, the Kansas City Royals, Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox also want an inexpensive acquisition or will take a flier on a Nicasio. But they could additionally have interest in a Neshek or Hunter to flip in July for prospects.
However, Klentak’s prime target is probably the Minnesota Twins. They are a team with both the need, the resources and a reason to strike a deal with the Phils because the Indians are their main competitor in the American League Central. Ergo, an ALDS berth!
Since 10 unnamed clubs kicked the tires on relievers to produce four signings, six franchises are possible landing spots. But one of the above seven organizations still needing a reliever probably wasn’t in the hunt at that time.
Two-month warning:
The Phillies have four main competitors for Neshek, Hunter and Nicasio: Adam Warren, Ryan Madson, Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard: all right-handers. However, another club could decide on a lefty specialist, an expensive closer or a reclamation project.
Warren, 31, recorded a 3.14 ERA for 51 2/3 innings and earned $3.3 million with the 2018 Mariners. So, he should receive an offer in the neighborhood of $4-5 million, but camp is only a week away: Some exec could successfully lowball him.
As for Madson, 38, he produced a 5.47 ERA with 14 saves and four holds over 52 2/3 frames and made $7.5 million in ’18. And chances are he won’t want less than $4-5 million, but some GMs won’t want to risk that much. For now, though, he’ll probably hold out until spots dwindle down to two or three opportunities.
Although Romo, 35, had a 4.14 ERA with 25 saves and nine holds for 67 1/3 innings in 2018 with the Tampa Bay Rays, he earned only $2.5 million. But he is probably still available because of proposals for roughly what he made last season. Basically, players want a raise and clubs want to keep costs down.
As for Clippard, 33, he had 73 outings with a 3.67 ERA, seven saves and 15 holds for 68 2/3 frames and earned $1.5 million in ’18. So, execs must believe they can pick up a better reliever for $2-3 million with Clippard as their backup plan.
If Neshek, Hunter or Nicasio are still Phillies on Feb. 22, they will battle with Victor Arano, Adam Morgan, Edubray Ramos and both acquired southpaws for five slots on the 25-man roster. On the other hand, will spring-training games cure 2019’s dearth of action? Yes!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Phillies statistical results toward 80 percent:
- Neshek: 24 good, 2 so-so and 1 blowup out of 30 total for 86.7%
- Hunter: 40 good, 7 so-so and 0 blowups out of 65 total for 72.3%
- Nicasio: 28 good, 2 so-so and 3 blowups out of 65 total for 65.2%
A blowup is 4 ER for less than 2 innings or 3 ER for less than 1 inning.
Bad outings are the numerical difference.
Rule of thumb is 4 good and so-so outings out of every 5 or 80%.
Free-agent statistical results toward 80 percent:
- Warren: 31 good, 3 so-so and 1 blowup out of 47 total for 72.3%
- Clippard: 54 good, 2 so-so and 3 blowups out of 73 total for 76.7%
- Romo’s total: 53 good, 0 so-so and 4 blowups out of 73 total for 72.6%
- Romo as opener: 3 good, 1 bad and 1 blowup out of 5 total.
- Madson: 38 good, 4 so-so and 3 blowups out of 58 total for 72.4%
- Kelley: 41 good, 2 so-so and 0 blowups out of 54 total for 79.6%
- Brach: 46 good, 6 so-so and 3 blowups out of 69 total for 75.4%
- Strickland: 35 good, 0 so-so and 2 blowups out of 49 total for 71.4%
- Holland: 40 good, 2 so-so and 1 blowup out of 69 total for 71.4%
Phillies setup men:
- Neshek, 38: 30 Gms., 24 1/3 Inn., a 2.59 ERA, 5 Saves, 6 Holds, a 3.61 FIP, a 4.99 xFIP, a 4.51 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
- Hunter, 32.5: 65 Gms., 64 Inn., a 3.80 ERA, 4 Saves, 25 Holds, a 3.63 FIP, a 4.01 xFIP, a 3.69 SIERA, a 0.7 fWAR and a 1.25 WHIP.
- Nicasio, 32: 46 Gms., 42 Inn., a 6.00 ERA, 19 Holds, a 2.99 FIP, a 3.18 xFIP, a 2.60 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.
Free-agent alternatives:
- Warren, 31: 47 Gms., 51 2/3 Inn., a 3.14 ERA, 4 Holds, a 3.94 FIP, a 4.31 xFIP, a 3.84 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 1.32 WHIP.
- Clippard, almost 34: 73 Gms., 68 2/3 Inn., a 3.67 ERA, 7 Saves, 15 Holds, a 4.24 FIP, a 4.28 xFIP, a 3.42 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.17 WHIP.
- Romo, 35.5: 73 Gms., 67 1/3 Inn., a 4.14 ERA, 25 Saves, 9 Holds, a 4.04 FIP, a 3.90 xFIP, a 3.32 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.
- Madson, 38: 58 Gms., 52 2/3 Inn., a 5.47 ERA, 14 Saves, 4 Holds, a 3.98 FIP, a 3.97 xFIP, a 3.54 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.41 WHIP.
- Kelley, 34.5: 54 Gms., 49 Inn., a 2.94 ERA, 4 Holds, a 3.71 FIP, a 4.15 xFIP, a 3.36 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 0.90 WHIP.
- Brach, 32.5: 69 Gms., 62 2/3 Inn., a 3.59 ERA, 12 Saves, 11 Holds, a 3.67 FIP, a 4.22 xFIP, a 4.09 SIERA, a 0.7 fWAR and a 1.60 WHIP.
- Strickland, 30: 49 Gms., 45 1/3 Inn., a 3.97 ERA, 14 Saves, 4 Holds, a 4.42 FIP, a 4.99 xFIP, a 4.62 SIERA, a -0.2 fWAR and a 1.41 WHIP.
- Holland, 33: 56 Gms., 46 1/3 Inn., a 4.66 ERA, 3 Saves, 6 Holds, a 3.83 FIP, a 4.05 xFIP, a 4.79 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.62 WHIP.
Phillies: GM's double-barreled trades and signings. dark. Next
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