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Phillies: Starting rotation’s looming, costly X factors

By Tal Venada

HOUSTON, TX - OCTOBER 16: Dallas Keuchel #60 of the Houston Astros reacts in the third inning as a play is reviewed against the Boston Red Sox during Game Three of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park on October 16, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TX - OCTOBER 16: Dallas Keuchel #60 of the Houston Astros reacts in the third inning as a play is reviewed against the Boston Red Sox during Game Three of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park on October 16, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /
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Machado is the best backup plan the Phillies have ever had. Photo by Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images. /

As is:     

Behind the Phillies one-two punch atop the rotation, the battle will be for the other spots. And, development-wise, the growth yardstick is in or after the third season: 30 starts per 162. Ergo, righty Enyel De Los Santos and lefty Cole Irvin will not be Phils in April, and Klentak won’t burn a 40-man slot on Irvin prematurely.

Phillies starts through 2018:

  • Nola with 93.
  • Velasquez with 76.
  • Eickhoff with 66.
  • Pivetta with 58.
  • Eflin with 46.
  • * De Los Santos with 2.
  • * Irvin with 0.
  • * Requires MLB development with 60-90 starts.

Since Zach Eflin will reach the 60-outing mark in 2019’s first half, he has breakout potential based on his improvement last summer. Mostly, he has struggled after breaks in his routine. But if you want to measure his progress, eye his performances during those times.

Many fans wrote Vince Velasquez off as a reliever or a pitcher because they didn’t allow for growing pains. Yes, he’s not a top-of-the-rotation stud, but he was decent in his first 20 games without injury through last Aug. 3: His outings were 15 good, two so-so and three bad, and he went six innings or more 12 times.

Jerad Eickhoff went from 11-14 with a 3.65 ERA in 2016 to 4-8 with a 4.71 ERA in 2017.  Additionally, he had pitched more than six frames nine times and six innings on another 14 occasions, but he had only 11 total in ’17 for six frames or more. In ’18, though, he was on the DL until September. Can he bounce back?

Through May 27, Nick Pivetta had excelled with boundless confidence producing a 4-3 mark plus a 3.26 ERA, but he regressed for the rest of 2018: a 3-11 record with a 5.60 ERA. Now, he and Eickhoff are roughly at the two-season mark for outings, but will either improve to the next developmental level?

With camp opening on Feb. 12, the hurlers’ starting order –barring unexpected circumstances– will reveal the franchise’s evaluative preference. For instance, 2018’s sequence was Pivetta, Eflin and Velasquez. So, will 2019’s order be Eflin, Velasquez and Pivetta?

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