SURPRISE, AZ - OCTOBER 17: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Surprise Saguaros and Toronto Blue Jays looks on during the 2018 Arizona Fall League on October 17, 2018 at Surprise Stadium in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
In the first of our series of scouting reports from our top 150 prospects list, we cover our #1 prospect, Toronto Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
As part of our minor league coverage with Call To The Pen, we will be putting together a scouting report on each of the top 25 players on our recently-published top 150 prospects list. Today, we begin with #1 on that list, Toronto Blue Jays infielder Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
Player Profile
Guerrero has been known around Major League Baseball circles for his entire life. Having a father who is a Major League Baseball Hall of Fame player helps with that!
When Vladdy came on the international market, he wasn’t going to come cheap due to his name and talent, but he also wanted to weigh the situation he was going into as well. The Toronto Blue Jays ended up being the winners of the Guerrero Junior sweepstakes in the summer of 2015, signing the young Dominican for $3.9 million.
Vladdy’s first professional assignment was Bluefield in the advanced rookie Appalachian League, where Guerrero was playing primarily against recent college draftees. His performance against players predominantly 5 years his senior was incredibly impressive, however, as he hit .271/.359/.449 with a 33/35 BB/K ratio over 62 games with 12 doubles, 3 triples, 8 home runs, and 15 stolen bases.
After that first year, he made enough of an impression that he was Baseball America’s #20 overall prospect in their top 100 list and #34 on MLB Pipeline’s list.
At just 18 in 2017, Guerrero played across both A-ball levels in the Jays organization, hitting a combined .323/.425/.485 with 28 doubles, 2 triples, 13 home runs, and 8 stolen bases, posting a 76/62 BB/K ratio over 527 plate appearances. He rocketed up rankings to the #3 prospect with both BA and Pipeline and #4 on Baseball Prospectus’ list.
Vladdy’s 2018 was spent primarily in the upper levels of the minor leagues in the Toronto Blue Jays system, though an injury mid-season did mean he spent some time at the GCL and high-A level rehabbing. Overall, he had an incredible stat line, slashing .381/.437/.636 with 29 doubles, a triple, 20 home runs, and 3 steals in 408 plate appearances while posting a 37/38 BB/K ratio. Incredibly, once promoted to AAA, he was even more impressive with his eye, posting a 15/10 BB/K over 128 plate appearances.
Guerrero then went to the Arizona Fall League, where he put on a show at times, but in general, he exhibited his advanced contact skills, with a .351/.409/.442 line over 88 plate appearances. He was the #1 consensus prospect with BA, Pipeline, and BP.
Scouting Report
Size/Build
There’s no questioning that Guerrero’s built like a tank, especially in his lower-half. Michael Strahan used to call his younger build “BOB”, which meant “booty on back”, and in scouting circles, a “high butt (usually a different term used, but we’ll keep it PG here!)” is a very desired trait in a player looking to generate power.
There’s no doubt that Vladdy would fit that description as he is built thick through his legs, but never “fat” anywhere in his frame, with any seeming fat on his frame in uniform revealed to be quite fit the moment he unbuttons his uniform. He just has a very unique body frame to put a uniform over without leading to looking “fat”.
He stands 6’1″ and is listed at 200 pounds. That listed weight is probably as much as 25-40 pounds light at this point, but he has surprising foot quickness for a man of his size.
Hitting
Contact (80) – In the video posted here, you see him on the first pitch of the video miss on a pitch. Needless to say, to truly see him miss on a pitch is a rare, rare thing. He did strike out at times in 2018, but much of that was due to disagreements with the umpire regarding the zone when you watch closer. He rarely ever got fooled by a pitch. Not only did he rarely get fooled, but when he put the bat to the ball, he put the best of the bat on the ball in such an incredibly consistent way that I’ve never seen it.
In fact, going back to find that level of consistent ability to put the barrel to the ball, I had to go back to Tony Gwynn. Tony did it very differently, but both had the ability to put the best of the bat to every ball they contact.
Power (70) – This is where a Gwynn comparison disappears in a real hurry. Vladdy’s hands are seemingly always perfectly leveraging the ball when he strikes the ball. I will say that in pure raw power, this could also be an 80, but Vlad does seek contact over seeking home runs, and that leads to him often driving a good pitch in the at-bat instead of unleashing on the best pitch of the at-bat to drive.
Eye (80) – For his raw strength, this is where Vlad is truly, truly special. Finding another player with his ability to hit the ball with power that also has the control of the strike zone that he does at such a young age as well as the ability to consistently put that heart of the bat onto the ball is a combination that is really not something to compare in recent memory in the game, not even with his father.
Base Running/Fielding
Speed (45) – Because of his name, many had visions of Vlad Junior being an exceptional athlete as well, but while he has impressive foot quickness for his size, his top-end speed at best is average, which could make any potential move into the outfield a challenge, but don’t be surprised if his quickness and incredible game instincts allows him to steal double-digit bags quite a few times in his career.
Defense (45) – At third base, Vlad’s no butcher, but he’s still average-at-best defensively. His offense will certainly cover that, but it is entirely likely that he will end up moving across the diamond or even to an outfield corner to utilize his arm. His quick feet and soft hands could be a big asset at first base.
Arm (60) – There is no doubt that Vlad has a plus arm in pure arm strength. While his footwork is quick, he can sometimes struggle with getting his feet out of position to support his throws, and his accuracy suffers from the hot corner. This could end up being a potential asset if he can handle an outfield spot.
MLB Player Comp
While Gwynn was the only one I could find that consistently put the barrel to the ball, it was a player with a similarly odd Dominican background that matched best with Vlad in recent history.
While Vladdy was born in Montreal, but was a signee from the Dominican, Albert Pujols was originally born in the Dominican Republic but came to the United States, graduating from high school in Missouri and attending community college in Kansas City before he was a 13th round selection.
Regardless of their diverse paths to being a top player, both zoomed through the minor leagues much faster than anyone had projected, and both will end up entering the league at the hot corner. Pujols played third, first, right field, and left field in his first season in 2001 with the Cardinals, and he played the next two seasons more in left field than anywhere else before settling in at first base in 2004.
Of course, by 2004, Pujols had already placed second in the MVP voting twice, made two All-Star games, won a batting title, and clubbed 138 doubles and 114 home runs over his first three seasons.
Comparing anyone to what was seen from Albert Pujols from 2001 to 2011 in St. Louis is akin to comparing any pitcher to Greg Maddux, but that is absolutely the type of talent that Vlad has, with the ability to control the strike zone the way Pujols did (975/704 BB/K over 7,433 plate appearances in that time), hit for average the way Pujols did (.328 BA), and hit for power (averaged 41 doubles and 40 HR over that 11-year span). Obviously, Toronto Blue Jays fans would be overjoyed to get that from him, but if Vladdy can stay healthy, that’s the type of bat he truly has.
Future Role
Vlad will open the 2019 season likely in the minor leagues for manipulation of his service clock, which will be BS, but it’s expected at this point.
From the point he does come up, though, he should give Toronto Blue Jays fans something to be excited about every time he’s at the plate, though he may give them some worries while he’s in the field for his first season. An excellent defensive coach could certainly mold Vlad’s quick feet into an average 3B, but whether the Toronto Blue Jays want him to focus that effort into his defense or leave his concentration on his bat will be interesting to watch early in his career as I’d wager he likely finds a long-term destination, whether outfield, first base, or even full-time DH, by his third or fourth year and then just settles in to mash for a long, long time.
Next. MLB top 150 prospects for 2019. dark
That’s our first of our top 25 scouting reports, one that should make Toronto Blue Jays fans outright giddy for their 2019 season. What do you think on Vlad? Is this too rosey a projection? Too harsh? Comment below!!
