Phillies: Everyday 8 revisited as camp opens
With a potential Phillies slugger on the horizon, fans and writers are in limbo regarding a last-minute signing for an RBI slot in the batting order, while general manager Matt Klentak is working within his financial framework to achieve that goal.
Subject to expectations:
While the Philadelphia Phillies faithful still remember the season-ending collapse, many have moved on. But others are reluctant to free themselves from the disappointment and bitterness of 2018’s August and September.
IN OTHER WORDS: “New beginnings are often disguised as painful endings.” – Laozi
For now, Klentak has added three new regulars to these lineup holes: J.T. Realmuto (2), Jean Segura (3) and Andrew McCutchen (5). Translation: The GM picked up baseball’s top catcher, a .300 hitter, and a productive bat to slot behind Rhys Hoskins. Yes, three of the first five hitters!
Will Klentak address the right-heavy lineup? Well, the exec currently has Odubel Herrera and Nick Williams, but he could be pursuing two free agents. He may ink left fielder Bryce Harper or third sacker Mike Moustakas, and either could hit between right-side bats.
By adding Harper, though, the Phils could possibly have Cesar Hernandez (1), Hoskins (2), Segura (3), Harper (4), Realmuto (5) and McCutchen (6). Yes, the need for a left-handed cleanup hitter is glaring. And the bottom two holes could have Herrera and Maikel Franco for deadly offensive length.
The RBI spots are another consideration: Analytically, the two and four slots have the most base runners. Currently, Realmuto will probably bat second with Hoskins likely hitting fourth. But if Klentak acquires Harper, he would handle the middle of the order, and Hoskins would slot second.
The Phils could have a fantasy league lineup or an American League everyday eight. Presently, Hoskins and Harper have 35-homer power, while Realmuto, Franco, McCutchen, and Herrera can launch 20 to 30 bombs. And even signing Harper for roughly $34-35 million per year is doable due to the team’s financial resources.
As for defense, management has shored up their backstop shortcomings and their corner outfield gloves. In fact, right fielder McCutchen is now their best outfield defender. Additionally, the red pinstripes have strengthened two up-the-middle positions.
Attack mode:
In the second half, Hernandez played 63 of the final 66 games with a broken foot. Prior to that, the Phillies had a 55-44 mark before going 25-38 after the leadoff man’s injury due to a foul ball in the batter’s box. So, he ended with a .324 OBP after his first-half’s .378 OBP. Expect a healthy .370 OBP!
Realmuto’s statistics:
- Away: 66 Gms., 254 AB, .283, 13 HR, 45 RBI, a .350 OBP and an .870 OPS.
- Home: 59 Gms., 223 AB, .269, 8 HR, 29 RBI, a .329 OBP and a .773 OPS.
Because of his stats, Realmuto should thrive in the Bank’s offensive-friendly confines and blast 25 home runs. And while Hernandez eyes many pitches, the All-Star catcher can study them from the on-deck circle. However, an acquired slugger could involve a bigger threat in the two hole: Hoskins, Harper or Machado.
In the three slot, managers favor a .300 hitter like Segura: The shortstop has recorded these averages consecutively in the last three campaigns: .319, .300 and .304. And he’s achieved those stats in both leagues: the .319 in the National League.
Phillies OBPs:
- Hernandez: a .356 OBP.
- Realmuto: a .340 OBP.
- Segura: a .341 OBP.
- Hoskins: a .354 OBP.
- McCutchen: a .368 OBP.
Free-agent OBPs:
- Harper: a .393 OBP.
- Machado: a .367 OBP.
- Moustakas: a .315 OBP.
Batting cleanup, Hoskins will likely prove switching back to first base and having a full 162 on his resume will lead to increased production. Of course, the opposition –especially in the NL East– would prefer Cutch hitting behind him and no new slugger in the lineup. Either way, hurlers won’t prefer 2019 over 2018.
With their top outfield glove in right, the red pinstripes also have a 20-homer threat to protect Hoskins, unless a major free agent joins the squad. For now, though, the club has someone who has launched 20 long balls in each of the last eight summers. And he basically replaces Carlos Santana‘s numbers in the order.
Missing link:
With a switch-hitter atop the Phillies order and right-handers through the five hole, Herrera will probably bat sixth. But which El Torito will we get this season? Yes, he arrived for spring training in January and has something to prove after his unusual approach to increase his pitch count. Numerical emphasis by whom?
Herrera’s exploits:
- 2015: a .297-hitting rookie.
- 2016: more than doubled his walks with a selective first three months.
- 2017: averaged a bat-flipping .343 for June, July, and August.
- 2018: recorded career highs in home runs and RBIs due to management’s hitting approach.
Although Franco could hit .270 with 20 bombs in the unforgiving eight hole, he’ll probably slot seventh due to the left-side bats of Herrera and Nick Williams. For now, though, he’ll split those two to balance the bottom of the order with a left-right-left alignment.
As for Williams, Kapler has a tendency to slot a player eighth to force him to be selective at the plate, like he did with Franco last year. On the other hand, the skipper could bat Herrera and Williams fifth and seventh to break up the right-handed hitters. This is why Santana had signable value.
Batting order:
- Harper: Hernandez (1), Hoskins (2), Segura (3), Harper (4), Realmuto (5) and McCutchen (6).
- Machado: Hernandez (1), Machado (2), Segura (3), Hoskins (4), Realmuto (5) and McCutchen (6).
Regarding a major free-agent acquisition, left-handed Harper (4) would be a better fit between Segura (3) and Realmuto (5) in the order. But while picking up Machado would replace Franco, the Phils could instead ink left-handed Moustakas (4) to man the hot corner.
The bench will have switch-hitter Roman Quinn and Scott Kingery to rest the regulars, pinch-hit, and fill in due to injuries. Additionally, Quinn will motivate Herrera, and Kingery should receive more playing time because Hernandez will be a free agent after the 2020 campaign. A trade after this 162?
Harper, Moustakas, and southpaw Dallas Keuchel have another thing in common: super agent Scott Boras. Yes, all three left-handed free agents are in the negotiations between Klentak and Boras. But when outcomes are up in the air, what are your plans? Subject to change!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Phillies plate-discipline comparison to free agents:
- Hernandez: 21.9 K% and 13.4 BB% with a .356 OBP.
- Realmuto: 19.6 K% and 7.2 BB% with a .340 OBP.
- Segura: 10.9 K% and 5.1 BB% with a .341 OBP.
- Hoskins: 22.7 K% and 13.2 BB% with a .354 OBP.
- McCutchen: 21.3 K% and 13.9 BB% with a .368 OBP.
- Herrera: 20.4 K% and 6.4 BB% with a .310 OBP.
- Franco: 13.3 K% and 6.2 BB% with a .314 OBP.
- Williams: 24.8 K% and 7.1 BB% with a .324 OBP.
- Machado: 14.7 K% and 9.9 BB% with a .367 OBP.
- Harper: 24.3 K% and 18.7 BB% with a .393 OBP.
- Moustakas: 16.2 K% and 7.7 BB% with a .315 OBP.
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
Phillies statistical comparison to free agents:
- Hernandez, 28.5: 161 Gms., 708 PA, a .253 Avg., a .356 OBP, a .362 SLG, a .109 ISO, a .315 BABIP, 15 HR, 60 RBI, a .718 OPS and a 2.2 fWAR.
- Realmuto, almost 28: 125 Gms., 531 PA, a .277 Avg., a .340 OBP, a .484 SLG, a .208 ISO, a .312 BABIP, 21 HR, 74 RBI, an .825 OPS and a 4.8 fWAR.
- Segura, almost 29: 144 Gms., 632 PA, a .304 Avg., a .341 OBP, a .415 SLG, a .111 ISO, a .327 BABIP, 10 HR, 63 RBI, a .755 OPS and a 3.8 fWAR.
- Hoskins, almost 26: 153 Gms., 660 PA, a .246 Avg., a .354 OBP, a .496 SLG, a .251 ISO, a .272 BABIP, 34 HR, 96 RBI, an .850 OPS and a 2.9 fWAR.
- McCutchen, 32: 155 Gms., 682 PA, a .255 Avg., a .368 OBP, a .424 SLG, a .169 ISO, a .304 BABIP, 20 HR, 65 RBI, a .792 OPS and a 2.6 fWAR.
- Herrera, 27: 148 Gms., 597 PA, a .255 Avg., a .310 OBP, a .420 SLG, a .165 ISO, a .290 BABIP, 22 HR, 71 RBI, a .730 OPS and a 0.9 fWAR.
- Franco, 26.5: 131 Gms., 465 PA, a .270 Avg., a .314 OBP, a .467 SLG, a .196 ISO, a .270 BABIP, 22 HR, 68 RBI, a .780 OPS and a 1.2 fWAR.
- Williams, 25.5: 140 Gms., 448 PA, a .256 Avg., a .324 OBP, a .425 SLG, a .170 ISO, a .312 BABIP, 17 HR, 50 RBI, a .749 OPS and a 0.3 fWAR.
- Harper, 26: 159 Gms., 695 PA, a .249 Avg., a .393 OBP, a .496 SLG, a .247 ISO, a .289 BABIP, 34 HR, 100 RBI, an .889 OPS and a 3.5 fWAR.
- Machado, 26.5: 162 Gms., 709 PA, a .297 Avg., a .367 OBP, a .538 SLG, a .241 ISO, a .304 BABIP, 37 HR, 107 RBI, a .905 OPS and a 6.2 fWAR.
- Moustakas, 30.5: 152 Gms., 635 PA, a .251 Avg., a .315 OBP, a .469 SLG, a .208 ISO, a .259 BABIP, 28 HR, 95 RBI, a .774 OPS and a 2.4 fWAR.
Phillies: Starting rotation's looming, costly X factors. dark. Next
If you have any questions or opinions regarding Philadelphia Phillies players, please open the comments section.