MLB free agency: Pitchers in the Statcast bargain bin

MLB free agency still has plenty to offer to teams that are still shopping. We look today at those who could be a bargain based on their Statcast profiles from 2018.

The other day, I investigated what free agent hitters are still available and have favorable metrics on Statcast that could make them valuable depth pieces with upside for contending teams.  Today, I am going to again analyze Statcast data in MLB free agency, this time for remaining free agent pitchers.

With pitching roles becoming more obscure and bullpens dominating the postseason, quality pitching depth is critical to success in the regular season and October.  That, along with the year to year volatility of relievers means that you can never have enough depth and talent in the bullpen.  I used MLBTR’s free agent tracking tool and ran these guys through several Fangraphs and Statcast searches and found interesting guys who could make a difference.

I looked at a mix of average velocity, pitch spin rates, and pitch usage rates to identify these pitchers.  As mentioned before, these aren’t the marquee free agents you get stoked about, but nevertheless, these guys can help you win games.

Ryan Madson

The 2018 World Series and 2018 regular season aside, Ryan Madson has been a solid, and maybe even an excellent reliever the past several years.  He also still brings it with an average FB of 95.6 MPH, 2nd among remaining free agents behind some guy named Craig Kimbrel.

Per Fangraphs, He throws that fastball over 60% of the time and mixes in a curve and change to keep hitters honest.  Despite his 5.47 ERA in 2018, Madson delivered a 2.0 WAR season as a reliever in 2017 and posted better than average ERAs since his return to baseball in 2015.  Presumably, he would prefer to pitch for a contender but either way, Madson will be throwing innings that matter down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Clay Buchholz

Did you know that last year Clay Buchholz was worth 1.9 WAR in 98 innings for the Diamondbacks?  I sure didn’t until I started writing this piece.

Buchholz just turned in his best performance since 2015 when he donned a Red Socks uniform.  He struck out 20% of hitters and only walked 5% and did it while not lighting up the radar gun (90.2 on his FB and 85.8 on his cutter).  Buchholz was able to lean on a 4-pitch mix to keep hitters off-balance.

His breaking ball is arguably the most impressive piece of the arsenal generating a spin rate of nearly 2700 RPMs.  While you can’t expect him to go 200 innings, Buchholz could add value at the back-end of a rotation and then in the postseason as a multi-inning option.  While their stuff couldn’t be more different, we watched an inconsistent and injury-prone Nathan Eovaldi become a postseason hero and then get paid.  This would obviously be a top of the scale outcome for Buchholz but it goes to show you that pitching is as unpredictable as it gets.

Bud Norris

While the results haven’t always been there for Norris, he turned in an acceptable year for the Cardinals in 2018.  His velocity won’t blow you away, averaging 92.6 on his heater, but he does come with some tantalizing Statcast numbers that indicate he could turn into something better.  Particularly, Norris’s fastball spin rate is 2491 RPMs which is top 35 in the league and best among remaining free agents.  Pair that with a slider that averages 2773 RPMs, which compares to the breakers thrown by Justin Verlander and Walker Buehler.  Norris only throws that slider 7% and, looking at his heatmap, throws most of his pitches down in the zone.

Norris might thrive pitching for a team with a more modern approach to pitch usage, who would probably encourage him to throw his slider more and throw fastballs up in the zone.  Norris could be worth a flyer to see if additional value could be squeezed out of him.

Blake Wood

Relievers are baseball’s most volatile year-to-year asset.  It literally takes one bullpen session for it all to magically click and then a guy turns into a monster.

More from Call to the Pen

• Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
• Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
• 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals

While Blake Wood hasn’t yet put it together in his career, from a pure stuff perspective, rebuilding teams should be signing this guy up to pitch for them.  From a pure stuff perspective, Wood averages 95 on the heater and 88 on the slider.

Of course, there is more to pitching than velocity but that’s a pretty good place to start.  The spin rate on the slider mirrors that of Max Scherzer and the fastball has enough spin to make it an interesting package.  This is not a super deep analysis or look at how his pitches complement each other.  Simply put, if I said there’s a guy out back throwing 95 with an 88 mph slider, every scout is going to go look.  He is another guy who could be one tweak away from being lights-out.

We all know the value of pitching and that pitcher usage is being re-imagined daily.  This group of guys either have present value in relief or could be a few tweaks away from something more.  While it is cliché, there is truth to the fact that you can never have too much pitching.

With spring training already underway, a team seeking bullpen help in MLB free agency should give these guys a call and see what happens.  Sometimes these signings turn into nothing, but then other times, we end up writing in July about the new dominant reliever on the block.