Milwaukee Brewers: Mike Moustakas and moving to second base
By Ryan Sanders
The Milwaukee Brewers plan to play Mike Moustakas at second base just might work out.
The Milwaukee Brewers signed Mike Moustakas to a one-year deal on Tuesday to play third base for the Brewers. Or at least, that’s what we thought until reports came out that the Brewers will try him out at second base.
Now on its head, this seems like a questionable decision with free agents like Brian Dozier and DJ LeMahieu previously available this off-season. Let’s walk through the rationale of why the Brewers would do this and then if it’s a good idea.
From a total value perspective, the Brewers ranked 27th in the league in 2B WAR coming in at -.1 WAR and a pitcher-esque 68 wRC+ offensive contribution. The combination of Jonathan VIllar and then Jonathan Schoop underwhelmed, so they naturally plugged the hole with Travis Shaw and got Moustakas to pay third.
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While OBP has never been Moustakas’s thing, he is fresh off a season where he hit 28 home runs and contributed a 105 wRC+ along with positive defense, good for a 2.4 WAR season. So just on offense we are looking at a huge improvement.
If Moustakas finishes with the same wRC+, that would put him in the top 10 2B in terms of offensive contributions. If he regresses positively to the 110-115 range he has contributed in past years, that would put him even higher on the list. So offensively, this makes sense, the Brewers have not received great production from 2B and now should get at least an average bat there.
The real question then is can Moustakas play at second? The Brewers just bet $10M that he can so that’s a good qualitative indication, but let’s see what the numbers and video think. By Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Moose was +2 which is good but not spectacular. Using Fangraph’s Inside Edge data, we can see that he is top five in converting routine plays at a 97% rate.
For plays assessed to be Likely, Even, and Unlikely, Moose doesn’t stand out in either direction as being exceptional or a black hole. What gets interesting is when you look at Remote Plays (1-10% conversion rate), Moustakas ranks fourth and is practically tied with Alex Bregman. Clearly, Moustakas is a capable defender in terms of fielding and should be able to convert a majority of the routine plays at 2B. Moustakas has more mobility than Daniel Murphy, who has been a 2B on multiple playoff teams, so his range should be acceptable. If Moustakas can make all the routine plays and enough plays in between his glove should more than suffice even if it isn’t plus.
The biggest difference between his new position and his old is that now he will be required to turn double plays. The critical components of turning two are the footwork, the transfer, and the arm strength. For arm strength, I would refer you to this video. Arm Strength CHECK!
Now footwork is a little trickier, but watch Moustakas field this slow roller. He charges the ball, bare hands it, and flicks it from the side not so different from when a 2B steps through the bag. It isn’t the perfect analogy, but it gives us an idea. More encouraging, Moustakas is now further removed from his ACL surgery and rehab so despite now being in his 30s, he should be more confident and capable in his lateral movements.
Now, Moustakas won’t be a gold glover at 2B but looking at the numbers and video it seems reasonable to think he could play there adequately, especially for the offense he’ll bring. David Stearns will help Craig Counsell with all kinds of data to ensure Moustakas is positioned as optimally from pitch to pitch.
The Brewers are familiar and obviously like Moustakas enough to have traded for him mid-season and then signed him as a free agent. This move isn’t without risk, if Moustakas can’t play the position then Travis Shaw and his excellent defense will have to move over for some amount of time.
dark. Next. Brewers extension candidate - Travis Shaw
At the end of the day, this is only a temporary solution as their top second base prospect, Keston Hiura, could be ready by mid-season. For now, Mike Moustakas will play second base and the Milwaukee Brewers improve one of their holes from last year. It’s exactly the type of signing a team with World Series aspirations should make.