Bryce Harper Should Sign a One-Year Deal
Manny Machado is off the market and that means that Bryce Harper should be gone soon as well. We all kind of know what to expect in a Harper deal, but maybe those aren’t the right kind of deals.
Sure, Bryce Harper could land a huge deal for at least $400 million that lasts at least a decade, but the smart thing to do in Harper’s case would be to take a small deal.
In that case, he should sign a one year deal. This would be a win-win deal for everybody involved, the team that signs Harper and definitely Harper himself.
By waiting for a mega-deal, Harper is only limited to a handful of teams who can either afford him or want him at that price. But, pretty much everybody should be in on him for a one year deal, especially teams who have a window to win now.
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But why would this be a good deal for Harper? Think of it this way, things can’t get worse unless he suffers from some crazy injury. If he takes a one year deal and performs well in 2019, he can enter the free agent market again next season and command even more.
In 2018, he hit just .249. It was the second time in the last three seasons that he hit below .250. If he takes a one year deal and performs better, hits even.270, he could command an even bigger deal a year from now while still being only 27 years old.
If he repeats his 2018 season and only hits .240, it would be as if nothing happened and he would earn about the same amount that he would get now.
Things would only look up for Harper, but that’s not the only way that he would get more money. If he signs a 10-year deal now, he would be a free agent again in 2029 at the age of 36. Whatever contract he signs at 36 would be nowhere near as close as what he gets now.
But, if he signs a one or two year deal now and then gets another 10-year deal at 27 or 28, he’d in effect be having 11 to 12 years of $30-40 million. By signing a short deal now and then testing free agency again later, he’s extending how many years he can have a big salary.
There’s another reason why this would be a good idea for Harper. It allows him to spend a year on a team he normally wouldn’t play for, a championship caliber team, or simply a team he would like to play for that isn’t able to pay for 10 years of his service.
For example, you’d have to think that both the Mets and Yankees would be able to pay for Harper for one year. With the Mets bringing in Robinson Cano you’d have to think that they expect their window for success to last only a couple years, so one year of Harper would be a huge success.
Same goes for the Yankees. One super-powered year with Harper, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton would almost guarantee a championship while allowing for the team to not worry about future contracts for guys like Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Miguel Andujar.
Let’s not forget that a team such as the Mets would probably get some of the money back in the form of extra ticket and merchandise sales. The same goes for lots of teams.
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It’s a no-brainer for Bryce Harper and all 30 teams to consider this, and a likely value for one year of Harper would probably be between $38 million and $42 million.