PECOTA is right: The Chicago Cubs will finish under .500
By Joey Brasch
Projection systems have not been favoring a positive season for the Chicago Cubs in 2019. Are they right?
It is impossible to understate the moment of catharsis for Chicago Cubs fans when their team won the World Series in 2016. Ending a 108-year drought would be more than enough for a fan, but the way they did it made it even sweeter. The 2016 Cubs weren’t an 87-win team that rode a hot streak to a title; they were a 103-win juggernaut with a young core. They seemed like the furthest thing from a fluke.
Yet two seasons later, the Cubs have underperformed the expectation of becoming a dynasty. They’ve been good, making the playoffs both years, but they certainly haven’t been the worldbeaters that everyone expected.
Nevertheless, the general consensus was that the Cubs were still a very good team going into the 2019 season. But Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projection system sees another story. As of now, PECOTA projects the Cubs to win just 79 games in 2019, a 16-game decline from 2018.
Before we get into why PECOTA projects the Cubs to decline so much, let’s talk about PECOTA. First off, it is not a sentient being. In other words, PECOTA doesn’t really “believe” anything. It’s a computer. That’s not to say that it’s always right, but it does take out a lot of human bias. Nevertheless, the Cubs are using their projection as a “nobody believes in us” motivator, which seems…odd to say the least.
An important aspect as to why the Cubs will decline in 2019 is the quality of competition. Baseball teams do not exist in a vacuum. The NL Central and the National League as a whole is really strong in 2019. As of now, PECOTA projects 13 teams to finish with 79 or more wins in the National League, including every team in the NL Central. Other teams have improved while the Cubs have remained pretty stagnant.
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A big narrative around the 2016 Cubs is that their young players would grow into starts and they would continue to get better. Yet come 2019,
and
are their only well-above-average players. Sure,
had a very good 2018 campaign, but his sky-high BABIP and low walk rate suggest that he is due for regression in 2019. Outside of Bryant and Rizzo, the Cubs lineup simply isn’t very strong.
The philosophy of building the Cubs dynasty revolved around developing position players and acquiring starting pitchers via trades and free agent signings. But after spending a huge amount of capital on Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, and Jose Quintana, their rotation still seems rather mediocre. Darvish still has great potential, but it is difficult to see him staying on the field for the whole season. There is value to having five starters that project to put up average seasons, but the Cubs are not getting the kind of elite pitching that they had hoped. Also, if the Cubs have to deal with injuries to their top-five starters, their depth is quite poor.
The bullpen is the weakest part of the 2019 Cubs. They lack high-upside relievers and they look primed to cough up some leads in the upcoming season.
Next. Cubs bullpen options. dark
It’s important to mention that PECOTA does not project the Chicago Cubs to be bad, but rather, mediocre. Their current spot in PECOTA as the worst team in the NL Central simply suggests that the division will be extremely competitive. But once you put away your preconceptions about the Cubs’ past success and simply look at their roster, it’s not too difficult to see this team finishing below .500 in 2019.