Phillies: Estimating new contention window

NAGOYA, JAPAN - NOVEMBER 15: Designated hitter Rhys Hoskins #17 of the Philadelphia Phillies is seen prior to the game six between Japan and MLB All Stars at Nagoya Dome on November 15, 2018 in Nagoya, Aichi, Japan. (Photo by Kiyoshi Ota/Getty Images)
NAGOYA, JAPAN - NOVEMBER 15: Designated hitter Rhys Hoskins #17 of the Philadelphia Phillies is seen prior to the game six between Japan and MLB All Stars at Nagoya Dome on November 15, 2018 in Nagoya, Aichi, Japan. (Photo by Kiyoshi Ota/Getty Images)
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Phillies
Nola is the first piece of the core four to commit for five years. Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images.

After seven years in the also-ran wilderness, the Phillies are at the threshold of contending for first place in the National League East and competing for more than a divisional pennant.

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While the Philadelphia Phillies faithful wait for the announcement of a slugger for an RBI slot in the lineup, some are eager to overpay for the privilege. But, apparently, general manager Matt Klentak doesn’t want to sign one superstar for $40 million a season instead of two stars in 2019 for $50 million.

"IN OTHER WORDS:    “The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it and become blind to the arguments against it.” – George Bernard Shaw"

The red pinstripes’ last winning 162 was in 2011: 102-60, when they had four aces, the Man, the Big Piece and J-Roll. And, then, age, health and luck caught up to them, while time ran out on the scoreboard clock. No clock in baseball?

According to four national sources, the Phils will have these 2019 victory totals: 81, 85, 85 and 87 or an 84.5 average. As for the NL East, the crown will require these predicted win tallies: 89, 90, 91 and 91: a 90.3 average. But Klentak will soon know if he has another piece or two to increase the locals’ forecast.

In order of standard position number, the regulars are closer in youth to 28, 26, 29, 26, 29, 25, 27 and 32, while the starters are nearest to 26, 33, 25, 27 and 26. Agewise, the average for the everyday eight is 27.8, and the rotation is 27.4. Translation: the Fightins could have 7-8 productive campaigns.

Regarding team control and financial certainty, writers and fans are bemoaning negotiations in an instant-expectation society. But hammering out a deal will allow the monetary resources to add other stars for more competitiveness. For now, nine of the regulars and five-man staff (13 total) are under control for four summers.

The batting order has four regulars who are still developing: Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera and Nick Williams. Additionally, Cesar Hernandez and Jake Arrieta played the second half through injuries. And the other four rotation pieces are improving each season.

While a championship core four is not a settled issue, Aaron Nola and Hoskins are progressing rapidly as its first half. To finish, J.T. Realmuto will be the next extension candidate because the free-agent market isn’t the same desirable bidding war. And Bryce Harper will probably complete this core.