MLB free agency: are certain owners just being jerks?!
The “light penalty”
If a team that neither exceeded the luxury tax nor receives revenue sharing happens to want to sign either of those players, even to a big one-year deal, they would forfeit their third-highest draft choice (the “least-costly” of the three tiers of “penalty” in the new CBA). That means if a team only had their standard draft picks, they’d be losing a pick in the third round (roughly pick 90-120) while the team who just gave the player a qualifying offer is only getting a pick somewhere around 150.
However, due to other compensations, primarily the fact that a team qualified for that least costly bracket is also eligible for a competitive balance pick, most teams are giving up a higher selection than a third-round pick.
The Atlanta Braves could have interest in Kimbrel or Harper, but they’d give up their 2nd round pick due to having two first-round selections in 2019. They’re likely not interested, but the Arizona Diamondbacks have two first-round picks and have acquired two compensatory picks after the first round due to losing Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock. That would mean that they would forfeit one of their compensatory picks. A few teams in this group that may have an interest in Harper or Kimbrel would be the Indians, Padres, and Twins.
The Indians would lose the 102nd selection in the 2019 draft if they would sign Kimbrel or Harper. The Padres would lose the 85th pick. The Twins would lose the 54th pick, the earliest of the four likely teams mentioned (the Braves’ pick is #61). The value of those picks in the 2018 draft was between $549,700 and $1,287,800. Obviously, that’s a big variance, but both the Twins and Braves would have over $1 million loss to their draft pool by signing either player.
Other tiers
If you go to the teams with “more costly” status in the draft picks that they would lose, the Nationals and Red Sox are the only teams that would face the most-expensive penalty for signing a qualifying player. They would lose their second- and fifth-highest selection in the 2019 draft along with $1 million from their international bonus pool. Interestingly, the Nationals have already surrendered exactly that by signing Patrick Corbin. If they were to sign a second qualifying offer player (Kimbrel, for instance), the Nationals would add losing their third- and sixth-highest draft picks.
The next tier down is the more common tier. That is the tier of teams that neither received revenue sharing money nor exceeded the luxury tax number. This season, that would include teams that have been linked to one or both of Harper and/or Kimbrel like the Angels, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies, White Sox, and Yankees.
Each of those teams would lose their second-highest draft pick and $500,000 from their international pool for the first qualified free agent signed. Signing a second qualified player would cost the team their third-highest pick and an additional $500,000.
The Dodgers have already given up their second-round pick and $500K in international pool for signing A.J. Pollock. Another signing would cost them the 103rd pick and an additional $500,000 in international pool funds.
The other teams would lose the following picks:
- Angels, #56, 2018 pool value of $1,228,000
- Cardinals, #59, $1,140,000
- Giants, #51, $1,382,400
- Phillies, #55, $1,257,500
- White Sox, #45, $1,587,600
- Yankees, #68, $917,000
That cost is significant for these teams, meaning over seven figures in draft pool money and/or international pool funds. Frankly, that’s going to obviously push down the markets on players as many will not want to be involved at that price.