Chicago Cubs Should Expect an Offensive Resurgence in 2019
By Ryan Sanders
Several members of the Chicago Cubs should experience an offensive resurgence this coming year.
Usually, when a team wins 95 games, the players, management, and fans are pleased because it was a successful season. For the 2018 Chicago Cubs, this was not the case. From losing the division to the Brewers in game 163 to getting bounced by the Rockies on back to back days AT HOME.
Shortly after the season, it was announced that Chili Davis would not be returning (more on that later). It was a devastating end for a team that was expected to compete for another World Series trophy. Between the disturbing off field situations, the PECOTA projection, and the Cubs “declaring bankruptcy“, the players are ready to play some games and seek redemption.
The offense sputtered in the second half of 2018, but I am here to tell you that it may have been the best thing that could have happened long-term. In fact, the Cubs offense could be coming back in a big way led by breakouts and improvements across the roster.
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Normally, hitting coaches linger in obscurity but Chili Davis may have had real influence on the mindset of Cubs hitters. The 2018 team featured a cadre of young guys and Jason Heyward, who may have leaned on an experienced coach for guidance and instruction. Coaches are less important to say, Ben Zobrist, who has won two World Series and carried the mantle as the most underrated player ever during his time with the Rays and Royals.
Put simply, Davis isn’t going to substantively tell a guy like Zobrist how to hit. Davis takes a more old-school and fundamental approach to hitting. Generally, this school of thought emphasizes things like: moving guys over, staying in the middle of the field, contact is better than a strikeout, and other antiquated proverbs.
Luckily, there are new schools of thought that are training hitters to hit the ball hard at optimal launch angles. It would seem the Cubs intend to go back to that approach.
When I started researching for this post, I was using Statcast to identify hitters to watch for in Spring Training because they had started changing their swing profile to lift the ball more. I looked at the average Launch Angle (LA) of all hitters from the beginning of the season through July 1 and then the average LA of from July 2 to the end of the season. I then subtracted launch angles for the second half from the first.
The biggest takeaway from my first glance at the list is how many Cubs appear prominently in the list…at the bottom of it. Of the bottom 18 swing changers, four of them are Cubs. Two more find themselves just above that group and even superstars Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant make appearances. The full list:
Chicago Cubs
Ian Happ – LA Before 17.5° – LA After 9.5°
Addison Russell – LA Before 15.0° – LA After 7.3°
Willson Contreras – LA Before 9.5° – LA After 3.1°
Jason Heyward – LA Before 11.9° – LA After 6.0°
Tommy La Stella – LA Before 10.0° – LA After 5.4°
Albert Almora Jr. – LA Before 9.4° – LA After 5.3°
Kris Bryant – LA Before 18.7° – LA After 15.3°
Anthony Rizzo – LA Before 15.6° – LA After 13.3°
(Note: despite his presence on the list, Addison Russell is still a jack***)
This is a damning compilation since most of these hitters under performed in one way or another. At some point, the Chili Davis approach won out and the team took a sub-optimal approach to hitting.
Of course, there’s more to hitting than just LA. From the beginning of the season to July 1, the Cubs were tied for third in wRC+ with the Red Sox at 108. From that point on, the team hit like Trey Mancini (93 wRC+) the rest of the way.
Getting deeper into the numbers, it doesn’t get better. Up until July 1, the offensive unit hit 43.5% ground balls and 34.7% fly balls. After July 1, the number of grounders increased to 48.9% and fly balls 30.3%. The Cubs were also second to last in terms of hard-hit rate. Not the offensive direction you want to see when home runs are hit at record rates these days.
Pivoting back to the hitters listed above, I wanted to dig in deeper to their Statcast numbers. From the first half to the second, every current Cubs hitter saw a negative drop in LA, Exit Velocity (EV), and xwOBA. Tommy La Stella, who is no longer with the team, was the only hitter to increase his EV and xwOBA. Davis appears to have gotten his way in the second half of the season and the offense suffered for it.
But Davis is out, and Anthony Iopace is in as the new hitting coach. Iopace should be able to better communicate an optimal and data driven hitting strategy to the Cubs. He was a coach for the Rangers and previously was a special assistant to the Epstein/Hoyer duo. Usually, hitting coaches fly under the radar, in this case, you could argue Iopace was the most important acquisition for the Cubs this off-season.
Cubs projected to finish under .500. dark. Next
Watch for the Chicago Cubs offense to return in a big way this season. A united approach to hitting from organizational philosophy down to instruction is critically important to success. By removing Davis, the Cubs have removed the block that prevented that messages from flowing to the Cubs hitters. With Iopace as hitting coach, the Cubs should have just that.