MLB former top prospects that need to have a big year in 2019
Scouting MLB prospects has never been an exact science, and sometimes we get it wrong. Here are five guys hoping not to become a bust.
While projecting what MLB prospects will do in the big leagues has gotten better, we still see guys who never quite live up to the expectations put on them.
That is why MLB prospects are still considered prospects until they prove themselves at the major league level.
For the sake of this list, we are going to be looking at players who ranked in MLB.com’s top 10 MLB prospects list over the past five years.
We’ve already had great success stories over the past five years with guys like Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Andrew Benintendi, Shohei Ohtani, Gleyber Torres, and Ronald Acuna.
But we’ve also had just as many players who either weren’t as great as some predicted, or have struggled to just stay on the major league roster period.
One of the guys I wanted to include in this list is J.P. Crawford, who ranked as the second-best prospect in 2016, but he’s not even guaranteed a starting job in 2019.
After flaming out with the Philadelphia Phillies, he’s currently listed as a back-up shortstop for the Seattle Mariners.
Alex Reyes is another guy you could put on this list, but he’s mainly be set back by injuries. Still, this will be a big year for him with the St. Louis Cardinals.
And while Joey Gallo hasn’t lived up to the hype that some predicted, I think we know what he’s going to be at the major league level having hit 41 and 40 home runs the past two seasons, but with averages of .209 and .206.
Here are five former top prospects who need to step up in 2019.
Yoan Moncada – White Sox
In 2015 Yoan Moncada finished the season ranked as the eighth best prospect in Major League Baseball — then in the Boston Red Sox organization.
The following season the MLB prospects list had Moncada ranked as the top prospect in all of baseball — now with the Chicago White Sox.
He made is major league debut with the Red Sox in 2016 playing in eight games. The following year he played in 54 games for the White Sox and hit just .231 with 8 home runs and 74 strikeouts in 199 at-bats.
Last year was his first full season with the White Sox and the prize of the Chris Sale trade did not live up to expectations.
In 2018 he hit just .235 with a .315 on-base percentage to go along with 17 home runs, 73 runs scored, 61 RBI, and 12 stolen bases. He also led all of baseball with 217 strikeouts.
That’s a far cry from his minor league numbers where he hit .285 with a .390 on-base percentage over 1,020 at-bats with 35 home runs, 136 RBI, and 111 stolen bases.
If the White Sox’ rebuild is going to be successful, they need Moncada to be the player everyone thought he was going to be. This season will be crucial for him.
Lucas Giolito – White Sox
We’ll stay with the White Sox and talk about the starting pitcher who was supposed to help the franchise turn things around in Lucas Giolito.
The big right-handed pitcher was the White Sox return for sending Adam Eaton to the Washington Nationals. At the time, many thought the White Sox got a steal by getting Giolito who was considered the top pitching prospect in baseball in 2016.
He made a solid seven starts for the White Sox in 2017 posting a 2.38 ERA in 45.1 innings pitched with 34 strikeouts and a WHIP of 0.95.
That gave a lot of White Sox fans hope that he would break out as their ace in 2018, but that was far from the case.
Last season he made 32 starts with an ERA of 6.13 in 173.1 innings pitched with just 125 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.48.
In the minor leagues he posted a 3.18 ERA in 497.2 innings pitched with 531 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.25.
The dip in his K/9 rate from the minor leagues to the big leagues is very concerning going from 9.6 to 6.4. You expect it to fall a little when jump leagues, but not to that extent.
Byron Buxton – Minnesota Twins
If I were ranking these in order of most crucial, Byron Buxton would be at the top of the list. He is on his very last straw at the major league level at this point.
Buxton was the can’t miss prospect back in 2014, 2015, and 2016. Everyone said he was going to be a superstar at the big league level.
That was after hitting .299 in the minors with a .375 on-base percentage to go along with 282 runs scored, 41 triples, 45 home runs, 199 RBI, and 104 stolen bases over 1,411 at-bats.
He got his first taste in the big leagues in 2015 hitting .209 in 129 at-bats. That next season he wasn’t much better hitting .225 with 44 runs scored, 10 home runs, 38 RBI, and 10 stolen baes.
Buxton showed flashes of breaking out in 2017 hitting .253 with a .314 on-base percentage to go along with 69 runs scored, 16 home runs, 51 RBI, and 29 stolen bases.
But then he took another step back in 2018 playing in just 28 big league games with a .156 average.
He should be the starting center fielder for Minnesota on Opening Day. But for Buxton, as well as teammate Miguel Sano, this could be their last chance to prove they can be superstars.
Dansby Swanson – Atlanta Braves
A former number one overall prospect, Dansby Swanson was dealt to the Atlanta Braves for Shelby Miller in what is considered theft by Atlanta — mainly because they also got Ender Inciarte.
Swanson shot through the minor leagues where he hit .276 with a .367 on-baes percentage in 536 at-bats with 11 home runs and 71 RBI.
The shortstop made his debut for the Braves at the end of the 2016 season and set the bar for the number four overall prospect even higher by hitting .302 with 3 home runs in 129 at-bats.
Coming into the 2017 season many picked Swanson to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. Instead, he struggled mightily hitting .232 with 6 home runs in 488 at-bats.
Last year he started out hot at the plate before suffering a wrist injury that slowed him down. He ended up hitting just .238, but he did have 14 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 478 at-bats.
Dansby did become an above-average defender for the Braves in 2018, which is what kept him on the field despite his offensive struggled.
Still, a lot of Braves fans are already calling for him to be replaced. Needless to say, 2019 will be a crucial season for Dansby.
Tyler Glasnow – Tampa Bay Rays
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Tyler Glasnow had a decent 2018 season for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Tampa Bay Rays, but nothing close to what we expected out him.
He was ranked as the eighth best prospect in MLB back in 2016 after posting a 1.93 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A with 144 strikeouts in 116.2 innings pitched.
Glasnow also made his major league debut during that 2016 season and posted a 4.24 ERA in 23.1 innings pitched (four starts) with 24 strikeouts.
The following season did not go nearly as well as he made 13 starts for the Pirates and posted a 7.69 ERA in 62 innings pitched with 56 strikeouts.
This past season the Pirates moved him to the bullpen where he had a 4.34 ERA in 34 games with 72 strikeouts in 56 innings pitched.
Ironically enough, the Rays turned him back into a starting pitcher and he was solid for them to end the season posting a 4.20 ERA in 55.2 innings with 64 strikeouts.
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Of all the players on this list, Glasnow has given the most hope going into 2019. He lasted at least 5.1 innings in his last four starts of 2018 giving up three runs or less in each of those starts.