St. Louis Cardinals: Breaking down the starting rotation

As spring training opens, seven pitchers, many of them plausible aces, compete for time on the mound with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Whatever one thinks of the 2019 St. Louis Cardinals, there’s general agreement that their starting rotation is among baseball’s deepest.

Certainly, there are questions, largely having to do with health. A couple are coming off injuries, which will make spring training important as a demonstration of their physical condition.

Still, the Cardinals’ depth chart lists seven plausible rotation starters, all of whom have a legitimate chance to make the opening day roster. Five of them made at least 15 starts in 2018, and the other two both have strong credentials to fit into the mix.

The rotation looks so good that over the winter the Cardinals took the unusual step of trading away Luke Weaver, who made 25 starts for them last season. Of course the return they got for Weaver, All Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, may have influenced their willingness.

Collectively, the five returning regular starters compiled a 3.23 ERA last year. How good was that? The National League average ERA was 4.02. Their average ERA+ was 126, meaning they performed at a rate about 26 percent better than their average counterparts.

They also have youth on their side. The average age of the seven is 27.7, and only one will be above 30 when the season begins. “Five No. 1 starters,” manager Mike Shildt recently told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “I know that’s a little bold, but…” he added.

It’s possible that the Mets with Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler, can compete at the top of the rotation. But, assuming St. Louis’ arms stay healthy, it’s less clear that any team goes as deep as the Cardinals in quality starting arms. Let’s take a look at Shildt’s numerous options.

Miles Mikolas

Mikolas came to the St. Louis Cardinals last season on a two-year, $15.5 million contract after establishing his reputation in Japan. In three seasons with the Yomiuri Giants, he had gone 31-13, including a 14-8 record and 2.24 ERA in 27 starts during 2017.

For the 30-year-old Florida native, it was a sharp turnaround from his previous big league experience, short, unremarkable stints with the San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers. That experience had led to just a 4-6 record between 2012 and 2014.

Back in the majors with St. Louis, the results were immediate. In his first season, he made 32 starts, running up an 18-4 record and a 2.83 ERA in 200 innings.

He led the National League in winning percentage (.818) and fewest walks per nine innings (1.3), tied for first in wins, ranked fourth in ERA, and sixth in innings pitched. For those accomplishments, he was named to the National League All Star team.

He finished the season especially strong, winning his five September starts and allowing just a 2.11 September ERA. He was 8-1 after the All Star break.

As good as Mikols’ season was, it might have been even more spectacular. In his four defeats, he allowed a total of just seven earned runs.

Although Shildt has not yet named an opening day starter, Mikolas is widely viewed as a likely selectee for the honor.

Carlos Martinez

When Martinez and the St. Louis Cardinals keep his focus on the field, the results can be imposing. When that focus wanders, almost anything is possible.

Until 2018, the focus was laser-like. Martinez initially made his reputation in 2013 and 2014 post-season play. Although only lightly used those two years, he worked nearly 17 post-season innings, compiling a 3.24 WRA.

That earned him an elevation to the rotation as a rookie in 2015. In three seasons as a full-time starter, he rolled up a 42-27 record with ERAs between 3.00 and 3.65. Between 2015 and 2017, Martinez average 193 innings of work across an average of 31 starts.

Problems, including injuries and concerns about his preparation, tarnished his image in 2018. Martinez was limited to 18 starts, and although he still presented a 3.11 ERA his record fell to 8-6 and his workload to just 119 innings. He did not make a start after July 30, although in the Cardinals’ ongoing search for a closer Martinez sometimes filled that role, accumulating five saves.

To cure the shoulder issues, they prescribed an off-season conditioning regimen. But there have been questions raised regarding how assiduously Martinez hewed to that regimen; he went through a couple of early throwing workouts and was sidelined in order to improve his rehab.
As spring games begin, it’s not clear when Martinez will return to throwing.

At his best, he’s a powerhouse, a 2015 and 2017 All-Star selectee.

Jack Flaherty

If Mikolas isn’t the opening day starter for the St. Louis Cardinals, it is likely to be Flaherty, a 23-year-old 2018 rookie find.

Flaherty went only 8-9 in his 28 starts, but his 3.34 tells a different story. He had a 116 ERA+, and struck out 182 opposing batters in just 151 innings.

Still, Flaherty’s season log showed a pronounced unevenness. In his eight victories, he allowed just six earned runs, and in his 11 no-decisions he gave up just 14. But in his nine losses, Flaherty allowed 29 earned runs to cross the plate.

His +2.6 WAR ranked second among Cardinal pitchers behind only Mikolas’s 4.1.

A 2014 Cardinal draftee, he came to the major following five seasons in the farm system during which he ran up a 33-18 record in 77 starts.

To the extent there’s any question about Flaherty, it focuses entirely on his lack of experience. He has only that one season in the majors, and at 23 he could be either a sensation or a sensational bust. His final month performance – no wins, three losses, three no-decisions, and a 5.33 ERA in six September starts — raises the question of whether he fatigued down the stretch.

But even if he did, there was no evidence of an arm issue, and no particular reason to believe in a carry-over effect to 2019. That’s evidenced by the fact that Flaherty is considered a viable opening day option to Mikolas.

Michael Wacha

Wacha is only 27, yet he may be the staff’s predictable, stabilizing element.

Entering his fifth full season as a starter, he went 8-2 in 15 starts before a scapular stress injury sidelined him for the season in June. The prescription was rest but no surgery, and he’s expected back at full strength this spring.

That’s good news for St. Louis because a healthy Wacha is a match for any opponent. Before being forced out, he had made 15 starts, more than three runs in only two of them. He was equally effective against both right (.218 BA)- and left (.210)-handed batters.

His 3.20 ERA would have represented the best of his career had he finished the season at that level. The injury, however, limited him to just 84 innings. In those 84 innings, he allowed just 68 hits, a 1.23 WHIP that put him on course for his best season in that respect since 2015.

A 2015 All Star when he went 17-7, he won a dozen more in 2017.

Wacha also has financial incentive to return to form in 2019. He is a free agent at season’s end, and needs to demonstrate his continued ability to last the full season in order to improve his attractiveness on the open market.

Adam Wainwright
In several respects, Wainwright is the most intriguing wild card on the St. Louis Cardinals staff.

He’s entering his age 37 season, and coming off a year in which he was limited by elbow inflammation to just eight appearances, all of them starts.

September amounted to a test for Wainwright, and it’s arguable whether he passed with flying colors. The good news was that he made four starts and lasted at least five innings in all of them. The bad news was that he gave up four earned runs in three of those starts, leading to an un-Wainwright-like 4.84 ERA for the month.

If Wainwright has lost some of the zip and talent that carried him to a 148-85 career record, spring training may demonstrate that. But if he can return to the form he displayed as recently as 2017, when he went 12-5 in 23 starts, the Cardinals will view that as a bonus.

Wainwright is by far the elder statesman among Cardinal rotation candidates. He has twice led the National League in innings pitched, but hasn’t produced an ERA below 4.50 for a full season since 2014.

At least the Cardinals have a backup. If Wainwight demonstrates during the spring that the game has passed him by, that likely makes room for…

Alex Reyes
Every deep staff needs a flame-throwing prodigy to push it. On the St. Louis Cardinals, Reyes fills that role.

Returning from shoulder surgery followed by a drug suspension, Martinez was expected to hit the majors in 2017. Tommy John surgery changed the time frame.

Instead, Martinez pitched perfectly – if that is not too strong a term – in field tests at various levels last season. Limited to just 23 innings of effort that was divided between Classes A, High A, AA, AAA and the majors, he did not allow a single run and gave up just seven hits while striking out 44, nearly two per inning. He showed easy triple-digit stuff. Then another injury, a torn lat tendon, sidelined him one more time.

Understandably, he enters 2019 as the No. 1 rated prospect in the Cardinals system.

Understandably, too, the questions today revolve whether Reyes’ limited 2018 performance is truly indicative of his ability and whether he can stand up to the strain of a full season of work. Control is one additional question. When healthy in 2016, he pitched 111 innings, allowing just 96 base hits but 55 bases on balls.

In sum, Reyes enters 2019 as one of those pitchers with a sensational upside, but needs to prove he’s matured enough – both in rehab of his injuries and in command of his stuff – to achieve that upside.