Pivotal in-season decisions for embattled Phillies manager
Beginning with Opening Day, the Phillies skipper will answer critical questions regardless of any additional acquisitions by general manager Matt Klentak in February and/or March.
Bat, glove and ball:
Some Philadelphia Phillies fans are restating their dissenting conclusions regarding management’s modern approach. Basically, when the campaign opens at March’s end, these critics already have their scapegoat, but the skipper knows he must win games, not popularity contests.
IN OTHER WORDS: “I am an unpopular electric eel set in a pond of goldfish.” – Edith Sitwell
When your youthful memories of old-fashioned baseball intersect with today’s game, the results are predictable. Your squawks go unheard by the decision-makers because they are following victory-based trends. Translation: They want to keep the job you want them fired from. Imagine that!
Regarding 2018’s batting order, the red pinstripes used 138 different lineups. And if you cherry-pick that stat, it only proves you detest analytics. But the Phils were 15th in the majors between the Los Angeles Dodgers with 155 at the top and the Atlanta Braves with 105 at the bottom.
Meanwhile, bullpen roles are changing because some franchises are using ninth-inning matchups. And while the closer stopped being a multi-frame position long ago, the three-out “hammer” now has less relevance. Yes, the necessity to win leads to new methods.
What’s next? The six-man rotation in the second half was successful for Atlanta last year. And because the Braves old-school manager had better results with it, he reluctantly continued the successful plan despite his misgivings. Ergo, the “extra day’s rest” strategy could be more widespread after 2019’s All-Star break.
When clubs heavily relying on analytics go to or win the World Series like the Dodgers or the Boston Red Sox, the number crunching is here to stay. Unlike the starter’s W to measure a hurler’s ability, new ways compensate for stadium size and situations out of a pitcher’s control: his defense.
And a new financial structure is forming to prevent monetary commitments from escalating into the stratosphere or deferred past a star’s retirement. Yes, the days of limitless spending are coming to a screeching halt.
Bats:
Before the Harper signing, the Phillies had J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins for the two and four holes –the RBI slots– with the first baseman batting cleanup. Yes, the All-Star catcher can fly around the bases, and he hit 30 doubles last summer, while only two of his new teammates had more: Hoskins with 38 and Harper with 34.
On the other hand, the Fightins needed a left-handed threat to balance their right-heavy lineup: Realmuto (2), Jean Segura (3), Hoskins (4) and Andrew McCutchen (5). Regarding Bryce Harper, he could bat third, so now who will hit second (RBI spot) and fifth?
As for other left-side bats, a hot Odubel Herrera and/or Nick Williams could also break up some right-handed hitters. But hurlers could still pitch around the others and take their chances with Herrera or Williams. Unfortunately, both have inadequate plate discipline.
For Kapler and Klentak, the big question will be handling Herrera. The center fielder averaged .255 in 2018, which was a big drop from his first three seasons: .297 (2015), .288 (2016) and .284 (2017). Basically, he produced those numbers before the higher-up’s new system in ’18.
With the analytical approach, the red pinstripes are working the counts, tallying pitches per at-bat, and preaching the benefits of launch angles: three-run homers. But regulars like Herrera are free swingers and don’t try to blast long balls. In fact, he stepped away from the plate once or twice during pitches in many ABs. Stats?
When Kapler said he is changing parts of his managerial approach, he only mentioned less positivity in postgame interviews. As for Herrera, if they again enforce a one-size-fits-all method, will the center fielder’s time in Philly be nearing an end? Basically, every rule has exceptions like this one.
Ball and glove:
Regarding the Phillies defense, the national media believes McCutchen is a left fielder because he can no longer play center. But he also was a strong right fielder last summer. Does Harper change that?
In the pen, Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez and David Robertson could have interchangeable roles. Normally, Neris will shut down rallies in the fifth through seventh innings, Dominguez will work the seventh and eighth frames, and Robertson will close out the eighth and ninth.
Aside from other relievers working lower-leveraged innings, Kapler may sit a struggling game-on-the-line fireman. Ergo, the other two who are getting the job done will handle bigger opportunities, and the same is true of some of last year’s setup men.
Nothing happens until the starter fires the contest’s first pitch. In Arrieta’s case, his performance suffered after May due to an injured knee, so he may be more of a two-slot arm if he’s healthy. And he’ll pitch behind Nola unless Klentak adds a rotation southpaw to start between them.
Arrieta’s stats:
- April and May: 5-2 with a 2.16 ERA for 10 starts.
- Injured knee in June.
- June through September: 5-9 with a 5.35 ERA for 21 starts.
- Final 9 starts: 1-5 with a 6.30 ERA.
Based on 2018’s results, two possible starters are Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez. Eflin struggled after deviating from his routine or blisters, and Velasquez was solid through Aug. 4. Yes, his pre-2018 reputation will probably haunt him again in ’19. But many fans favor Nick Pivetta who finished with four bad months.
Acquisitions:
Although the Phillies signed Harper, the five-man staff is still a concern. They have starters battling for the bottom two or three rungs, but will Eickhoff be one of them? Additionally, could the red pinstripes also add a free-agent starter?
The front office felt the pressure, but they understood the competition for Harper more than some media personalities. Months ago, the Washington Nationals had moved on by signing other players with an emphasis on their rotation.
As for west coast franchises, Los Angeles (NL) had made only a short-term proposal, while the San Francisco Giants owner concerned about poor ticket sales offered $310 million for 12 seasons. Realistically, the San Diego Padres inking one superstar was surprising, But two? In fact, even signing Dallas Keuchel is beyond their current financial ceiling.
Harper wanted to surpass the $325 million record, while Boras had to maintain his reputation. And he knew his interested customer promised stupid money. Yes, the slugger received the most expensive contract at $330 million for 13 years: ergo, a lower-than-expected AAV (average annual value). Yes, $25 million AAVl!
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