The Philadelphia Phillies rotation needs a swing to the left.
In the excitement over the Bryce Harper signing, the MLB.com list of free agents had been neglected. It sat outside the back door, as it were, like a puppy whimpering in the rain. Philadelphia Phillies fans returning to it may have been shocked to find only a couple of hands full of free agents left unsigned after four months of hand-wringing about the slow market for untethered talent.
This should be of interest to Phillies fans because it is now time for their newly loaded team to address the one matter seemingly needed to make the Fightin’s a truly formidable contender. Of course, team chemistry will have to develop for a team that added four All-Star-caliber players to their starting lineup from four different places, but to be “ready” for their opener with the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies need only a left-handed starter.
The South Philly Nine’s starters are too right-handed and include – well, too many losers – on the back end of their rotation. After Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta, the expected starters – Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta, and Vince Velasquez – are a combined 50-68 in an aggregate nine years of MLB service. Two of those years, one of them had a winning record, Velasquez in 2016, at 8-6, and Elfin last season, at 11-8. Over 92 percent of all their appearances altogether have been starts.
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Of course, the won-lost record for a starter is now a discounted statistic, but it’s not meaningless, and Phillies fans have been hearing for years about the team’s confidence in these three guys. Would their win totals have been higher if they’d had the 2019 Phillies lineup behind them all nine of their years? Probably. But we’ll never know about that. What we do know, however, is that these starters together have lifetime WHIPs of 1.338 (Eflin) or higher (both are above 1.350).
So, maybe this year’s Phillies squad would have added five wins to their aggregate won-lost record. Does that seem excessively unfair?
What to Do
With no one on the spring training squad who seems a lock to break into the starting rotation, it seems the Phillies have to look elsewhere for a left-hander to break up their rotation. Cole Irvin, a successful, left-handed, Triple-A starter in 2018 is in camp, but thus far has thrown fewer than five innings, posting a 1-1 record and a 1.85 WHIP.
So, what would be the best move for the Phillies? The highest quality, unsigned left-hander still left among the free agents is Dallas Keuchel. Why he is still unsigned is a bit of a mystery, but Buster Olney has tried to explain this in terms of teams shying away from long-term contracts for players “in their 30s,” and MLB’s current tendency to “focus on hard-throwing pitchers, something Keuchel is not.”
OK, but honestly, Keuchel is 31. He’s a winner who, barring injury, seems a lock to throw 160-180 innings a season. He has topped out at 232.2 and threw 204.2 innings last season. Olney and others have reported the Phillies are interested, but only in the short term. Fine. Get it done.
But what if that doesn’t happen?
Gio Gonzalez is also available, but he’s older. He might be cheaper. However, Gonzalez sports a 1.316 lifetime WHIP, and was more than 0.1 higher than that in ’18. The Phillies should consider him a firm “meh.”
Outside of signing Keuchel, there is the notion of thinking outside the box. Philadelphia might consider pitchers now in their bullpen like James Pazos, but he hasn’t started a single one of the 137 games he’s pitched in to date. Adam Morgan, another lefty in the pen, is already a failed starter.
Can you say “way outside the box”? Besides signing Keuchel or waiting until the trade deadline, the Philadelphia Phillies might consider trading for and developing immediately someone from another organization.
How about that Taylor Rogers, the thin left-hander on the Twins? Rogers has been a reliever his whole career, but at 6-foot-3, 170 – he actually looks a bit heavier – he has the physical frame to put on a few more pounds. He seems durable enough and has enough control to be considered a potential starter, having appeared in 72 games last season and posting a 0.951 WHIP.
Yes, turning a spot left-hander into a starter is definitely thinking outside the box, but the Minnesota scout who found Rogers pitching for Kentucky has lauded the pitcher’s ability to throw strikes, his variety of pitches, work ethic, and toughness. In 2013, he was the Twins Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year, and he’s been throwing fastballs that touch 93 mph, sliders, and changeups since then.
I’d imagine Rogers would be excited to consider starting again.