New York Yankees: Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez or Neither?
The New York Yankees will likely be without Luis Severino to start the season. Do they need to sign another starter to carry the load while he’s gone?
Last year, even with his rough second half, Luis Severino was the rock of the New York Yankees rotation. Because of this, the news that he is going to miss an unknown amount of time at the start of the season might make you panic a little if you’re a Yankees fan.
Don’t panic.
Things are going to be OK.
The Yankees have a bevy of options in front of them right now. Honestly, if it turns out that Severino is only going to be out for a week or two to start things off then they could probably get away with doing little to nothing.
Having Jonathan Loaisiga start a few games in the first month of the season won’t kill them, and the team’s bullpen is more than capable of picking up the slack if there are a few weak starts. Aaron Boone has said he might even give the opener a try, which could potentially be deadly (for other teams) with the squad the Yankees have.
If it turns out that Severino will be out for a longer period of time, then things get a little more complicated.
Loaisiga, at least from what we saw last year, is more cut out to be a spot starter than a fifth starter at this point, and in a hyper-competitive AL East, any weak spot will be exploited. The Yankees wouldn’t necessarily be in a crisis situation thanks to other areas of strength, but they still would need to do something to ensure they don’t fall behind to start things off.
Which brings us to Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez.
Keuchel and Gonzalez are the two best starters on the market right now, and they’re also pretty different players. Both have come up throughout the offseason as possible targets for the Yankees, so it wouldn’t be super surprising to see one of them in pinstripes come March 28th.
Which one the Yankees sign (if they sign either) has a lot to do with how Severino’s injury shakes out.
Since 2015 Keuchel and Gonzalez have provided similar value, racking up 13.6 and 11.9 in bWAR respectively, but Keuchel, who was the AL Cy Young winner in 2015, is widely considered to be the better player, which equals a bigger price tag.
It was reported in December by MLB Trade Rumors that Keuchel was looking for a “lofty” 5-year deal; you also have to keep in mind that his agent is Scott Boras. Because of this, it would only be worth it for the Yankees to take on Keuchel if they viewed him as more than just a band-aid to cover for Severino.
This seems unlikely. If the New York Yankees thought of Keuchel as a viable addition to the staff, then it stands to reason that they would have already signed him.
Still, it’s fun to think about.
Even once Severino returns CC Sabathia’s status as a regular starter for 2019 is questionable, and a rotation of Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, and Keuchel with whatever Sabathia can be sprinkled in would be naaaaasty.
This would bring the Yankees arguably the best rotation and the best bullpen in baseball, which paired with their overpowered offense, would make them unbeatable on paper. Of course, we don’t live on paper, and, coincidentally, the Yankees don’t seem to want to spend much more paper. The super-rotation might have to remain a pipe dream.
Which brings us to the next question: how might Gio Gonzalez fit?
There has been less buzz around Gio Gonzalez this offseason and his desires as far as a contract is concerned aren’t entirely clear. With what we do know it’s safe to assume he’d be fine signing a shorter deal than Keuchel, and it’s also safe to assume that he’d be asking for less money. This would make him the more desirable option as a temporary option to cover for Severino.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
One thing Gonzalez would bring to the New York Yankees rotation that they desperately need is durability. Over the last nine season, Gonzalez has started 30+ games eight times; his addition to the team would give the rotation some assured consistency next to the older Sabathia and the oft-injured Paxton.
We also can’t forget that Gonzalez has looked like an elite pitcher as recently as 2017 when he had a 6.4 WAR season with the Washington Nationals. It’s hard to stand out when you’re pitching in the same rotation as Max Scherzer but Gonzalez managed to, finishing the season with a 2.96 ERA over 201 innings.
His 2018 wasn’t as impressive but things also didn’t totally drop off a cliff. In general, he’s one of baseball’s more underappreciated pitchers.
With all of this considered it’s much more likely that the Yankees sign Gonzalez than Keuchel. There’s no indication that Severino’s arm is so shot that they need a super long term solution, so signing Keuchel to a big 4+ year deal would be pretty hard to justify, especially after they decided to pay J.A. Happ in December.
Next. Yankees: Luis Severino Shut Down 2-Weeks. dark
Even if it does turn out that Severino will only miss a start or two Gonzalez would be a good get for the New York Yankees and would be more than capable as a fifth starter. This would give the team more flexibility should injuries come down the stretch (which isn’t unlikely), and would guarantee they aren’t put into a situation where they need to trade assets mid-season for a starter to ensure contention.