National League East: What Needs to go Right for Each Team
The National League East is going to be an intense battle all season long with each team needing multiple things to go right in order to win.
It was a big winter for many teams as they either positioned themselves for the 2019 playoff race or distanced themselves for future success. The off-season was also a quiet time for some teams that did not seem to have a clear path toward contention or rebuilding. Regardless of how successful or disappointing each team’s off-season was, every team has things that can break right for them this season. Whether that means enough things go well that a surprise team sneaks into the playoffs, a juggernaut hits on all cylinders and wins the World Series or a rebuilding team has young players develop in a positive way. Over the next couple of weeks, I will be going division by division highlighting what needs to go right for each team in 2019. Let’s begin with the National League East.
It was a crazy off-season for nearly every team in the National League East this winter. It seemed like every day another move was being made by a team in the division. It went from being a young, up and coming division to possibly the best in all of baseball. A flurry of moves quickly created four contenders and one bottom feeder. The Nationals, Phillies, Mets and Braves will likely be duking it out all summer to see who will be crowned champion this fall.
The division race is shaping up to be a nail-biter starting on opening day. Fangraphs’ projection has the four top teams in the division separated by only 7 games, while Baseball Prospectus has the spread at a mere 5 games. In a race this close the team that finishes victorious at the end of the season will have many things go right for them throughout the year. These can be any number of things, but they are often little advantages that add up over the course of the year. Let’s take a look at what needs to go right for each team in the National League East:
The Washington Nationals
The Nationals have the best roster on paper coming into the season. Even after all the moves that the Phillies and Mets made, the Nationals top to bottom look to be the class of the division. Being the favorites they are, the Nationals really just need to stay healthy and meet their projections in order to have a good season that should result in a trip to the playoffs.
While the Nationals have studs all over the field there isn’t a whole lot of talent behind the starters. For instance Anthony Rendon is projected to be a 5 win player according to Fangraphs which is great but him getting injured at any point this season would mean a lot more Wilmer Difo than the Nats want to see. The starting rotation is also extremely talented but quite thin. If Max Scherzer were to go down for a long stretch, they would essentially be out of the race. Not to mention that Stephen Strasburg always seems to have some sort of ailment every year. There’s obviously a ton of talent on the team, but they have to stay healthy for it to matter.
The Nationals also have several wild card players that are going to have to live up to their projections in order to fend off the National League East competition. Juan Soto had probably the greatest teenage season of all time last season and is projected to repeat that performance in 2019. Newly acquired Brian Dozier is expected to bounce back and be a 2 and a half win player for them, while Adam Eaton is also expected to finally produce a 3 win season after failing to record even 2 WAR in either of the past two seasons. The pitching staff is also relying heavily on a repeat performance of Anibal Sanchez‘s 2018 season as well as a bounce back season from Trevor Rosenthal. The Nationals will likely need all of these players to live up to these projections to come away victorious in the 2019 National League East.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies won the off-season like no other team has ever won an off-season. They acquired one of the best relievers in baseball in David Robertson and one of the better outfielders in the game with Andrew McCutchen. They improved both offensively and defensively at short stop with Jean Segura, and they traded for J.T. Realmuto, arguably the best catcher in the game. To top it all off they spent $330 million over 13 years to sign Bryce Harper. However, all of these moves still didn’t quite make them the clear favorites in the eyes of the projections. Even with the infusion of talent, the Phillies are going to need a few things to bounce right to win this division.
The 2018 Philadelphia Phillies were the worst defensive team ever according to Defensive Runs Saved. While they dramatically improved their over the winter by trading away Carlos Santana, moving Rhys Hoskins back to first base and adding Jean Segura, they still may be one of the worst defensive teams in the National League. While their lineup is formidable, most of their position player are projected to be below average at their position, which may take some value away from their pitchers.
The Phillies are also going to need at least one of their starting pitchers behind Aaron Nola to step up and be a reliable #2. Former Cy Young award winner, Jake Arrieta, could be that guy but I expect Nick Pivetta to break out this year into the Phillies second best pitcher. Pivetta’s strikeout and walk numbers were excellent last season, but he gave up a few too many long balls. If Pivetta can lower his home run rate and get some better batted ball luck in front of an improved defense, he should be able to be an excellent compliment to Nola in the Phillies’ rotation.
New York Mets
The Mets had a huge off-season as well this winter. While they did acquire a few potential difference makers in Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz and Jed Lowrie, much of what the Mets did this winter was building depth to protect against injuries and slumps. Looking at the team’s depth chart its hard to imagine many if any positions being much worse than average this season with the quality depth that they have. This gives the Mets a solid floor for the 2019 season, though their ceiling will be mostly dependent on big time performances from their biggest players.
Given the floor of the lineup, the pitching staff will likely be the X-factor for the Mets this season. While its unrealistic to expect a repeat performance from Jacob deGrom in 2019, he and Noah Syndergaard are once again going to need to be capital “A” aces to take the Mets to the heights their fans so desire from them. The team is also going to require health and premium performance from Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler. There isn’t much starting pitching talent behind these four guys so the team will need most of its production out of this quartet.
In order for the Mets to get over the hump and actually win this division, they are also going to need some of their players to beat their projections such as Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Amed Rosario. Pete Alonso is going to have to overcome any rookie hiccups and be this year’s Rhys Hoskins. Brandon Nimmo is going to need to take his next step toward becoming the anchor of the lineup, and Amed Rosario needs to breakout and become the stud shortstop he was projected to be as a prospect. If these three guys can take these steps, along with the pitching success, the Mets might actually have a chance to win the division.
Atlanta Braves
After several years of a full rebuilding effort, the Atlanta Braves shocked everyone and won 90 games and the division in 2018. However, nearly every team in the division improved more this off-season, making a repeat division title difficult to envision. Not only are the Braves going to have to play exceptional baseball this season to make it back to the playoffs, they are also going to need some things to break right for them as they did a year ago.
The young pitchers taking a big step in development is the most important thing that has to happen in order for the Braves to have a successful season in 2019. Beyond the health and continued performance of Mike Foltynewicz as well as positive contributions from Kevin Gausman, Sean Newcomb and Julio Teheran, the Braves youngsters will have to perform.
Mike Soroka needs to get back on the mound where his excellent command and control have already proven successful against big leaguers. Touki Toussaint needs to learn how to control his fastball and attack hitters. Max Fried and Luiz Gohara need to figure out how to stay healthy so that they can contribute as well. Not to mention Kyle Wright, Kolby Allard and Bryse Wilson who should all factor into the pitching staff as well.
There are enough quality arms here that you can imagine five of them working out in the rotation this year and enough of them helping out the bullpen as well. The Braves will likely need the 80th percentile outcome or better from their young staff in order to tackle the giants in the division.
The other big factor that has to happen for the Braves is Josh Donaldson. Donaldson needs to bounce all the way back from a disappointing past couple of years. He needs to not only produce at a near MVP caliber level but also stay on the field for 140 games or more. While the Braves have excellent depth all over the field, they don’t have anyone else outside of perhaps Ronald Acuña Jr. and Freddie Freeman that can match Josh Donaldson‘s level of offensive production.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins began the rebuilding process last winter by trading away their entire starting outfield. They have since traded their last marquee trade chip, J.T. Realmuto, to the division rival Phillies. They are still in the early stages of this rebuild and the odds of the Marlins winning the division have to be about as close to zero as they can be. However, that doesn’t mean that this season will be useless. There are still many things that the Marlins would like to go right this season.
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First and foremost the Marlins need to see positive development from many of their young hitters. Brian Anderson needs to repeat his excellent rookie season, while Lewis Brinson needs to take a big step forward after a lousy 2018 big league debut. Monte Harrison and Isan Diaz need to continue to improve as hitters and push their way toward the big leagues.
They would also love to see some improvement in Jorge Alfaro‘s approach at the plate. Alfaro has the raw tools to become a monster behind the plate, but his approach has kept him from even being average to this point.
The Marlins would also like to see solid development from newly acquired Sixto Sanchez. His stuff is ridiculous so there isn’t a whole lot of room for improvement there, but he needs to figure out a way to stay on the mound and silence the durability concerns. If he can do that he may be knocking on the door of the big leagues for the 2020 season.
Next. 2019 NL East preview. dark
This division is absolutely stacked and it’s going to be a battle from opening day. Each contender is not only going to have to perform well against each other but also not slip up against weaker competition such as the Marlins, who certainly aren’t going to simply lay down against these juggernauts. The team with the most things that bounce right for them will likely be the champion when all is said and done.