AL East: What Needs to Go Right for Each Team to be Successful
The AL East is going to be led by the typical juggernauts, but each team will need several things to go their way to have a successful season.
Over the next couple of weeks, I will be going division by division highlighting what needs to go right for each team in 2019. I last discussed the National League East, now let’s move on to the AL East.
It was a big winter for many teams as they either positioned themselves for the 2019 playoff race or distanced themselves for future success. The off-season was also a quiet time for some teams that did not seem to have a clear path toward contention or rebuilding.
Regardless of how successful or disappointing each team’s off-season was, every team has things that can break right for them this season. Whether that means enough things go well that a surprise team sneaks into the playoffs, a juggernaut hits on all cylinders and wins the World Series or a rebuilding team has young players develop in a positive way.
Last year’s AL East was a story of David and Goliath. The Division had three 90 win teams, two 100 win teams and one team that had one of the greatest seasons of all time. With all the talent up top, it also had one of the worst teams ever.
Not a whole lot has changed heading into 2019. There are still three teams that have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, one team in no man’s land, and one team that should be picking first overall again in the 2020 draft.
The AL East should be the most exciting division in the league as it’s the only division that will likely have an actual race for the divisional crown. It’s very close at the top with a lot of things needing to break right for any team to come away victorious.
Hopefully, some things will break right for the teams at the bottom of the division as well so that fans in Baltimore and Toronto don’t completely check out by June.
New York Yankees
Pitcher health is likely going to be a common theme among the teams at the top of the AL East as health can be the biggest thing that knocks the king off the mountain. This holds true for most teams, but especially the Yankees. More than just health, the Yankees rotation is also going to need to perform up to their capabilities to hold off the Red Sox and Rays in this division.
Luis Severino is already dealing with shoulder issues, and Masahiro Tanaka will try to pitch another season on a partially torn UCL. James Paxton has never pitched more than 160 innings in a single season, and relying on a 38-year-old C.C. Sabathia sounds like a risky proposition.
The Yankees do have intriguing depth pieces for the rotation in Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga who should be able to fill in admirably throughout the season. However, the team will need a clean bill of health from most of their main guys to successfully navigate through the season.
This rotation is also going to need to live up to their fullest potential as the Yankees have a couple of incredibly talented teams in their division to hold off. The rotation is easily the weakest unit on the team and they are going to need the best out of Severino, Paxton, and Tanaka to come away with the division.
A surprise season from one of the young guys would be a welcome sign in the Bronx as well as that might be necessary with all the question marks in the rotation. The Yankees could even benefit from using the opener strategy now and then.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox had a remarkable season in 2018 with nearly everything going right on their way to 108 wins and a World Series title. Of all the teams in the AL East, the Sox enter 2019 with most of last year’s roster still intact, but they will need just as much, if not more to go right this year if they want to repeat as world champions.
While the Yankees basically just need their starting rotation to stay healthy, the same can be said about the Red Sox bullpen. After refusing to make upgrades to the pen all off-season, the team will be turning to the likes of Ryan Brasier, Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree to hold down the end of games.
This is a risky proposition that could backfire as there really isn’t a whole lot of depth either. The depth question could also be asked of the starting rotation that has five excellent starters but very little talent after that.
The Red Sox also have three holes in their lineup that will need at least some form of production to keep them in the race all year.
They are currently projected to get 1.4 wins above replacement from their catchers, 1.3 wins from their first basemen and 2.2 wins from second base. However, I am skeptical that Dustin Pedroia can be a league average player for a full season. Of course, the Sox won 108 games and a World Series last year with very little production from these three positions, but I have a hard time believing they will be able to repeat that magic trick.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays surprised a lot of people last season by producing one of the quietest 90 win seasons you’ll ever see. 90 wins is typically a good benchmark for a playoff caliber team. However, with the super teams in the American League in 2018, the Rays never even sniffed the playoffs with their 90 wins.
Many people are pointing toward 2019 for the Rays to put it all together and make a return trip to the playoffs. For that to happen the team will need some players to break out beyond their projections and they are going to need better health than they had a year ago.
The Rays currently have 10 position players and 6 pitchers projected to produce at least 0.9 WAR according to Fangraphs. That is incredibly good depth and gives the team a high floor.
However, they only have three players on the entire roster projected for 3 or more wins. That lack of star power could come back to bite this team before its all said and done. The Rays are going to need some of their 1-2 win projected players to step up and eclipse that 3 win mark if they are going to be able to overcome the behemoths in their division.
To compete in the AL East, the team is also going to have to have better luck with pitcher injuries.
Last spring training, the Rays lost Bent Honeywell, Jose de Leon and Anthony Banda all to Tommy John surgeries, thus creating the need for the opener. This simply cannot happen again if the Rays have aspirations of the playoffs. The Rays are going to need their full stable of arms and some of them to take that next step if they are going to improve on last year’s team.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are a team that’s going to need most everything to go right for them to be competitive in the AL East this season.
Much of what was said about the Tampa Bay Rays could also be said about the Blue Jays. This is a team with a lot of role players and average contributors, but not a lot of star power. They’re going to need their star prospects to come up and make an immediate impact while also having some breakout performances from some of the less heralded players. They’ll also need bounce-back seasons from their top pitchers if they want any chance.
The Toronto depth chart shows a great number of players that could have strong seasons even though you wouldn’t really project that success. Kevin Pillar and Justin Smoak have had good seasons in the past. Danny Jansen showed very well in his big league debut a season ago and Randall Grichuk has flashed tremendous tools at times.
Devon Travis, Lourdes Gurriel, Billy McKinney, Teoscar Hernandez and others have all shown abilities at one point or another, but can they put it all together at the same time? That’s going to be one of the biggest questions of the 2019 season. The biggest storyline of the season will, of course, be the arrival of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and he will need to live up to all the hype to propel this team to the playoffs.
Probably even more important to the success of the 2019 Toronto Blue Jays will be the performance of Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez.
These two pitchers have the talent to anchor a playoff rotation if everything else goes well, but they also could fetch an excellent prospect return in a trade mid-season. However, both pitchers have struggled with health and performance over the last two seasons delivering a blow to their value. Strong performances from either or both of these two pitchers would benefit the team in either present or future value.
Baltimore Orioles
After a historically bad season in 2018, the 2019 Orioles are likely in store for a similarly depressing year. The most unfortunate aspect of last year’s Orioles isn’t mentioned nearly enough. They went into the season actually trying to be competitive. After an off-season of stagnation, this Orioles team appears to be in store for another year of misery.
However, as with the Marlins from the NL East article, all hope is not lost for the 2019 Baltimore Orioles in the AL East.
The main goal for this season will be the development and maturation of their top prospects. Cedric Mullins and Trey Mancini need to take the next step while Austin Hayes and Hunter Harvey need to stay healthy and figure things out at the upper levels of the system. Yusniel Diaz and Ryan Mountcastle need to be knocking down the door to the major leagues by the end of the season, and DL Hall needs to solidify himself as one of the better left-handed pitching prospects in the minors.
Other than player development there are a few moves that the team will have to execute successfully to make this a positive season. First and foremost is the number 1 pick in this year’s amateur draft.
The Orioles need to select a franchise cornerstone with this pick and fortunately for them, there seem to be a few options to fill that role. They also need Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb and Mychal Givens to pitch well in the first half so that they can be flipped for prospects at the deadline. These are trades that will need to produce some talent that can help the next competitive Orioles team.
The AL East may not be as competitive as its National League counterpart, but it should be an exciting three-team race nonetheless.
The Red Sox had everything go right for them a year ago and they emerged the World Series champions. The same could happen to the Yankees or possibly even the Rays this season.
The Blue Jays have an outside shot at the playoffs, but they have plenty that can go right even if it doesn’t result in a playoff berth. The Orioles, on the other hand, are hoping for things to go right that help them in 2022. Regardless of the present value, each team in this division has things they need to happen to help them have a successful season.