Atlanta Braves: Why Keuchel Should Wait Until June to Sign Deal

As the Atlanta Braves and “a couple” of other teams continue to monitor Dallas Keuchel, here’s why the lefty should wait until June to sign a deal.

On Thursday, MLB’s Jon Morosi reported, per a source, that the Atlanta Braves are continuing to “monitor the market” on Dallas Keuchel. However, according to Morosi, “the team is wary of surrendering the Draft pick required to sign Keuchel.”

That’s right! Another one of baseball’s asinine rules comes back to bite a veteran player in the rear end. I mean, why should a team have to surrender a draft pick for signing a free agent?

It all has to do with baseball’s free agent compensation rules broken down nicely HERE by SI’s Jon Tayler.

Now, I understand that the idea of free agent compensation is to help small market teams be more competitive, but the side-effect seems to be much worse. The rules discourage middle-of-the-road teams, like the Braves, who rely on their farm system, to go out and sign free agents like Keuchel.

More from Call to the Pen

• Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
• Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
• 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals

Keuchel isn’t going to break any team’s bank. He’s not going to command 13-years, $330M like Bryce Harper did. He’s an above-average, unique starting pitcher in today’s game.

He features an uncanny 5-pitch repertoire made up of a sinker, slider, cutter, changeup and four-seam fastball. And speaking of his fastball, while most teams seek a hurler, Keuchel’s averages just under 90 MPH.

Instead, he relies on contact to get outs.

Keuchel induces more ground balls (53.7%) than any other pitcher in baseball. What’s more, his GB/FB ratio is also by far the highest in MLB (2.20). This is a unique characteristic as we live in the age of launch angle and analytics, where the 3-run HR is akin to basketball’s 3-pointer.

Everybody is doing it, and Keuchel can neutralize it.

So, in this day and age, where a team has to surrender a draft pick for signing a free agent, what is said free agent to do to entice teams, like the Atlanta Braves?

Wait until after the MLB June amateur draft.

Why? Well, this way teams don’t have to surrender a draft pick and will have a – fingers crossed – healthy and solid starting pitcher down the stretch.

After all, sometimes the best way to manipulate foolish rules is to make foolish decisions. For Keuchel, sitting out 3+ months of the season might just be the solution to his free agency problems.