Phillies rotation concerns for 2019 vs. 1980 and 2008
After the Phillies spent $488 million during the offseason, fans still want a southpaw for the five-man staff, but MLB front offices can’t fix every problem with financial resources alone.
Yesterday’s enlightenment:
Memories of the good times for the Philadelphia Phillies usually gloss over any deficiencies those championship teams had. Yes, we eye only the unblemished facade of those two red pennants flapping in a warm June breeze but overlook some worries we experienced during those 162s.
IN OTHER WORDS: “God bless the potholes on Memory Lane.” – Randy Newman
When you take the wayback machine to those glory days, you discover stars with down seasons, injuries and abbreviated campaigns you fused mentally to their brighter summers. Ultimately, those irrelevancies vanished in a celebratory haze.
On the other hand, the 2011 squad wasn’t victorious in a single playoff series after setting a franchise record of 102 triumphs. And although they had four aces and the most major league wins, they lost to a hot club. But could those Phils have beaten the most-talented 25 in the last 10 years? That’s the point exactly!
As for the team to beat, well, they lost to the New York Yankees in 2009’s Fall Classic, the San Francisco Giants in 2010’s NLCS and the St. Louis Cardinals in 2011’s NLDS. For what it’s worth, each of those organizations won the World Series in those 162s.
In ’80, the rotation’s number two made only 14 starts with none in June and July. He, fortunately, had five outings in his best month: September. Meanwhile, the three-slot hurler had arguably a career season, and those were unexpected outcomes in March.
Regarding ’08, the offense and the bullpen offset a rotation weaker than the current one, and they were behind an ace who only had 51 starts before Opening Day. And even though pitching and defense is a winning formula, those red pinstripes went 11-3 in their postseason romp.
Well, the current five-man staff has some of the faithful fretting about a missing piece, but a possible concern is developing. Two starters are coming along slowly, while a third was pitching his frames in relief until March 15. At this time, though, it’s merely questionable but worth eyeballing.
Behind the ace:
While Larry Christenson, a two-slot arm, missed roughly three months, the 1980 Phillies had Dick Ruthven, 29, having one of his best campaigns: 17-10 with a 3.55 ERA. Yes, that was the third year of his second tour lasting five summers with the Fightins.
For 2008’s starting staff, Brett Myers, 27, was 10-13 with a 4.55 ERA; but he certainly had his moments in that 162. And, especially, his nine-pitch walk to load the bases was emblematic of the ’08 NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers. Yes, he was the menacing cloud before the grand storm.
Regarding Jake Arrieta, he went 10-11 with a 3.96 ERA but played through a knee injury for four months. Yet if he’s healthy, he could match Ruthven, and he had better 2018 stats than Myers in 2008. So far, a plus!
Slotting third, rookie Bob “Whirly Bird” Walk, 23, was 11-7 with a 4.57 ERA. But because the NLCS against the Houston Astros had lasted five games, Walk started the first contest of the 1980 World Series. However, he struggled, but the offense outscored the Kansas City Royals to pick up the right-hander.
For 2008’s rotation, Jamie Moyer, 45, pitched his way into the three slot with a 16-7 mark and a 3.71 ERA. Plus his best October contest was Game 3 of the Fall Classic versus the Tampa Bay Rays: He went 6 1/3 innings and allowed three runs (all earned) without a decision.
Presently, Zach Eflin, 24, is the only hurler besides Nola and Arrieta to be starting without coming along slowly or mostly pitching in relief. And if things don’t change, he’ll slot third on the five-man staff.
Bottom rungs:
Based on availability, left-hander Randy Lerch, 25, was the Phillies fourth starter because Christenson missed three months of ’80. But Lerch had produced only a 4-14 record with a 5.16 ERA, and he didn’t pitch in the postseason because of Christenson’s August return.
As for Kyle Kendrick, 23, he was in the four slot during ’08 and had an 11-9 mark with a 5.49 ERA while making only regular-season appearances due to the acquisition of Joe Blanton from the Oakland A’s. Blanton was the fourth arm of the four-man October rotation.
For now, Vince Velasquez, 26, is not pitching in relief like Jerad Eickhoff. But management is also keeping him on a slower path to readiness because of his injury history, plus he appeared to run out of gas after Aug. 4 and limped to the finish line. Also, he will be more relaxed on the mound with strong offensive support.
Christenson, 26, had elbow surgery for bone spurs after going 3-0 with a 6.31 ERA for April and May. However, he returned in August to finish the last two months of 1980 with a 2-1 record plus a 2.81 ERA and the three slot in the NLCS.
When the ’08 campaign began, Adam Eaton was at the bottom of the five-man staff before struggling in most outings to go 4-8 with a 5.80 ERA. But the Phils traded for Blanton to replace Eaton in the rotation. Yes, the fix worked!
Regarding the bottom rung of the starting staff, Nick Pivetta will probably slot there with Eickhoff remaining in Clearwater for a couple of weeks due to missing almost all of ’18. Or If Eickhoff is ready, Pivetta will be in the pen or the rotation for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
Then and now:
In ’80, Marty Bystrom, 22, went 5-0 with a 1.50 ERA after his September call-up to the Phillies. Plus he also started the fourth contest in the NLCS and game two of the World Series with good and so-so performances respectively.
Regarding 2008, Blanton, 28, was a second-half addition; and he went 4-0 with a 4.20 ERA. He also slotted behind Hamels, Myers and Moyer in October, and he had solid outings in the NLDS and World Series but a so-so NLCS appearance. Despite that, most only remember his home run in the Fall Classic.
If the Phils need a lefty starter, two or three will probably be available in July. Of course, Eickhoff or Pivetta might claim that slot long before the trade deadline with a solid first half.
As you can now see, 1980’s five-man staff had an ace and a strong number two, but the rest were an injured moundsman, a so-so rookie and a struggling portsider. But a healthy Christenson and a promoted Bystrom were unplanned successes.
As for the starters of 2008, the Fightins had an ace, a two-slot performance from an aging veteran, a so-so number two, and disappointing summers from Kendrick and Eaton. But Blanton provided just enough for the offense to win the multi-tiered postseason.
Basically, every team has warts. For the Phils, it’s a southpaw between Nola and Arrieta, but those previous champs also had strong lineups and bullpens, not four aces. So, what can you expect for ’19 after last year’s crash and burn in August and September? This phoenix rising from those ashes!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
The ages listed are their ages in the championship season.
Pitching for the 1980 Phillies:
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- Carlton, 35: 38 Gms., 304 Inn., 24-9, a 2.34 ERA, a 2.42 FIP, an 8.8 fWAR and a 1.10 WHIP.
- Ruthven, 29: 33 Gms., 223 1/3 Inn., 17-10, a 3.55 ERA, a 3.54 FIP, a 3.2 fWAR and a 1.41 WHIP.
- Walk, 23: 27 Gms., 151 2/3 Inn., 11-7, a 4.57 ERA, a 3.64 FIP, a 2.0 fWAR and a 1.54 WHIP.
- Lerch, 25: 30 Gms. (8 relief), 150 Inn., 4-14, a 5.16 ERA, a 4.39 FIP, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.55 WHIP.
- Christenson, 26: 14 Gms., 73 2/3 Inn., 5-1, a 4.03 ERA, a 3.35 FIP, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.
- Bystrom, 22: 6 Gms. (1 relief), 36 Inn., 5-0, a 1.50 ERA, a 2.70 FIP, a 0.9 fWAR and a 0.97 WHIP.
Pitching for the 2008 Phillies:
- Hamels, 24: 33 Gms., 227 1/3 Inn., 14-10, a 3.09 ERA, a 3.72 FIP, a 3.58 xFIP, a 3.63 SIERA, a 4.8 fWAR and a 1.08 WHIP.
- Myers, 27: 30 Gms., 190 Inn., 10-13, a 4.55 ERA, a 4.52 FIP, a 3.82 xFIP, a 3.91 SIERA, a 2.1 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.
- Moyer, 45: 33 Gms., 196 1/3 Inn., 16-7, a 3.71 ERA, a 4.32 FIP, a 4.48 xFIP, a 4.56 SIERA, a 2.8 fWAR and a 1.33 WHIP.
- Kendrick, 23: 31 Gms. (1 relief), 155 2/3 Inn., 11-9, a 5.49 ERA, a 5.55 FIP, a 5.02 xFIP, a 4.04 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.61 WHIP.
- Eaton, 30: 21 Gms. (2 relief), 107 Inn., 4-8, a 5.80 ERA, a 5.29 FIP, a 5.01 xFIP, a 5.17 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.64 WHIP.
- Blanton, 28: 33 Gms., 197 2/3 Inn., 9-12, a 4.69 ERA, a 4.52 FIP, a 4.64 xFIP, a 4.81 SIERA, a 1.9 fWAR and a 1.40 WHIP.
The 2019 Phillies pitchers with 2018’s stats:
- Nola, 25.5: 33 Gms., 212 1/3 Inn., 17-6, a 2.37 ERA, a 3.01 FIP, a 3.21 xFIP, a 3.40 SIERA, a 5.6 fWAR and a 0.97 WHIP.
- Arrieta, 33: 31 Gms., 172 2/3 Inn., 10-11, a 3.96 ERA, a 4.26 FIP, a 4.08 xFIP, a 4.29 SIERA, a 2.0 fWAR and a 1.29 WHIP.
- Eflin, almost 25: 24 Gms., 128 Inn., 11-8, a 4.36 ERA, a 3.80 FIP, a 4.02 xFIP, a 4.02 SIERA, a 2.2 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.
- Velasquez, 26.5: 31 Gms. (1 relief), 146 2/3 Inn., 9-12, a 4.85 ERA, a 3.75 FIP, a 4.12 xFIP, a 4.00 SIERA, a 2.6 fWAR and a 1.34 WHIP.
- Pivetta, 26: 33 Gms. (1 relief), 164 Inn., 7-14, a 4.77 ERA, a 3.80 FIP, a 3.42 xFIP, a 3.51 SIERA, a 2.8 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.
- Eickhoff, 28.5: 3 Gms. (2 relief), 5 1/3 Inn., 0-1, a 6.75 ERA, a 1.47 FIP, a 0.89 xFIP, a 1.42 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.88 WHIP.
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