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MLB: Why the 4-Man Outfield Will Be Baseball’s New Shift

By Manny Gómez

SAN DIEGO, CA - AUGUST 29: Los Angeles Dodgers players line up using an extreme infield shift as Seth Smith #12 of the San Diego Padres comes up to bat during the twelfth inning of a baseball game at Petco Park August, 29, 2014 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA - AUGUST 29: Los Angeles Dodgers players line up using an extreme infield shift as Seth Smith #12 of the San Diego Padres comes up to bat during the twelfth inning of a baseball game at Petco Park August, 29, 2014 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /
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With each passing season, MLB sees a rise in shifts. With the “ban-the-shift” movement gaining traction, baseball will soon have a new “problem” on their hands: the 4-man outfield.

I use the word “problem” lightly when referring to the shift in MLB. The fact of the matter is that the shift isn’t actually a real problem at all.

Sure, seeing an entire infield shift to one side of the field looks bad, but if we look at the data, not much has actually changed in baseball since teams starting shifting so frequently over the past decade. At least not when we look at the results.

While teams are shifting at an unprecedented rate, batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) over the last decade have remained virtually the same, hovering right around the .300 mark. What’s more, players weighted on-base average (wOBA), a more complex measure of a hitters performance, have also remained virtually the same over the same time period.

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If we think closely about what it truly is that bothers us about the shift, it’s not that we’re seeing less action on the ballfield, it’s that hitters haven’t taken enough advantage of it.

At least, not yet.

You see, the shift is nothing new in baseball. In fact, over 60-years ago, teams tried to utilize the shift in order to neutralize baseball’s greatest hitter, Ted Williams. According to a brilliant piece by Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight, in 1946 Lou Boudreau, player-manager of the Cleveland Indians designed the shift in an attempt to rob Williams of his hits.

MLB, Ted Williams Shift
(Original Caption) This photo diagram shows the positions of the Cleveland infield and outfield in the so-called “Cleveland Shift” defense against terrible hitting of Ted Williams of the Boston Red Sox during the game in Boston. This photo was made after Williams had found a chink in the defense and slapped one to the left for a single. Left fielder case of the Indians recovered the ball to hold Williams on first. The Indians won the game 6-3. /

Knowing that Williams was a pull hitter, Boudreau instructed his players to stack the right side of the field. To Bourdreau’s surprise, initially, it worked. However, Williams was later able to beat the shift by slapping the ball to a wide-open left field (pictured above). For the rest of his career, his batting average would remain virtually the same despite seeing more versions of the “Cleveland Shift”.

The point is that by banning the shift, all MLB is doing is regulating where fielders should play. The results will inherently remain the same while strategy is ultimately being discouraged.

Instead, what front offices and managers will dictate is for their players to stack the outfield like we saw 65 times last season, and like we’ve already seen twice already during Spring Training.

You see, one apparent problem gives rise to another. The issue is not being solved.

Instead, what MLB should do is to encourage teams and players to continue implementing creative strategies and just let the game play out. Naturally, if teams continue to shift, hitters will begin to expose its weaknesses and something else will arise from that.

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Once the league starts to impose rules that restrict strategy, the entire essence of the game starts to go. So, don’t create a problem where there is none and just let them play ball.

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