Mike Trout: Revisiting the 2009 MLB Draft

With the 25th pick in the 2009 MLB First-Year Player Draft, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim select….Mike Trout, Outfielder from New Jersey.

The MLB amateur draft is a fickle business.  Of the four major sports, it is likely the one draft that is most difficult to get right.  When you consider that future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols was drafted in the 13th round, and that HOF catcher Mike Piazza was drafted in the 62nd round, the baseball draft truly is a crapshoot.

The 2009 draft proved to be no exception.  With the news breaking earlier this week that Mike Trout had agreed to the largest contract in professional sports history, I thought I’d revisit the first round of the 2009 draft which saw Trout go to the Los Angeles Angels at pick #25.

Before we do, let’s consider some numbers from Trout’s 7+ year career so far:

• Starting with his first full season in MLB in 2012 (at age 20), Trout has appeared in every All Star Game.
• Trout has finished 1st or 2nd in the AL MVP race in 6 of the 7 years with 2 wins and one 4th place finish.
• His career OPS+ (park adjusted OPS – On Base % Plus Slugging %) is 175.  100 is considered league average.
• Trout has amassed a career WAR (per Baseball-Reference) of 64.3 (an average of over 9 WAR per season).  I’m not a big proponent of WAR, but it is a useful tool to use when comparing players.
• After his 3rd full season in the majors, Trout signed a 6 year, $144 million contract to give the Angels two additional seasons of control.  This type of contract that early in a player’s career is unheard of.

Considering all of that, it isn’t terribly presumptuous to state that Mike Trout is putting together an all-time-great career.  With that in mind, and with no offense intended to those players taken ahead of him, let’s take a look at the 24 players that were drafted ahead of Trout in the 2009 Draft…

1. Washington Nationals – Stephen Strasburg (P)

It’s hard to argue with the Nationals’ selection at the top of the draft.  As an organization looking to completely rebuild their standing in MLB, they were desperate for that cornerstone, once-in-a-lifetime pitcher to anchor their rotation for years to come.  Unfortunately, due to a series of injuries, Strasburg has only managed to start 30 or more games in just two seasons since making his debut in 2010.

Even with limiting his innings in 2012 and keeping him off of the playoff roster that season, he has not been able to stay healthy enough to be the top-of-the-rotation (TOR) starter that they sought in 2009.  To make matters worse, he has only started 3 postseason games in his 10 years with the Nationals. With all that said, he has 3 All Star Game appearances, two top-ten finishes in the Cy Young Award vote, and a contract that will pay him $38 million in 2019 and $45 million in 2023.  Strasburg is easily the most accomplished player, other than Trout, from the first round of that draft

2. Seattle Mariners – Dustin Ackley (OF)

Ackley spent 4.5 seasons with the club that drafted him in 2009.  Only managing to play in more than 140 games in two of those seasons, Ackley has not shown a consistent ability to get on base or hit for much power, and has spent the last few seasons in the Minor Leagues.  His best season was his rookie year where, in just 90 games, he managed to finish 6th in the Rookie-of-the-Year race.  The Mariners brought him back for 2019 on a minor league contract after a stint with the Yankees, but have since released him during Spring Training.

3. San Diego Padres – Donavan Tate (CF)

Tate was a two-sport star in high school and chose to forgo college football when he was taken 3rd overall in the 2009 draft.  As an athletic outfielder, Tate never managed to advance past A-Ball and left baseball in 2017 for a chance to play quarterback at the University of Arizona.  After one season, he left to return home to be closer to family.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates – Tony Sanchez (C)

Sanchez has 156 career plate appearances over a handful of seasons in MLB and is currently with the Texas Rangers.

5. Baltimore Orioles – Matt Hobgood (P)

Hobgood was unable to advance past AA ball during his career as a pitcher, and after spending time away from affiliated baseball he is attempting to make a comeback as a positional player.  He is currently unsigned.

6. San Francisco Giants – Zack Wheeler (P)

Wheeler was ultimately traded to the Mets in a deal for Carlos Beltran, and he made his debut in 2013.  The pitcher has been riddled with injuries throughout his career and has only completed two full seasons with the Mets.  He has shown flashes of dominance and continues to be a key factor in the Mets rotation moving forward.

7. Atlanta Braves – Mike Minor (P)

Minor experienced some success early in his career with the Braves, posting several decent seasons in a row with the club.  Shoulder injuries derailed him, but he has managed to come back strong after pitching from the bullpen in Kansas City in 2017.  Minor was a fixture in the Rangers rotation in 2018 and is pencilled in to start opening day for the club later this month.

8. Cincinnati Reds – Mike Leake (P)

Leake has proven to be a consistent league average starter over the course of his 9-year career with stints in the NL and AL.  To date, he has a career ERA of 4.03 and an adjusted ERA (ERA+) of 99 (league average ERA+ is 100). Leake is currently with the Seattle Mariners.

9. Detroit Tigers – Jacob Turner (P)

Turner has been unable to maintain a steady spot on an MLB roster, although he has appeared in 102 games and sports an ERA over 5.  Turner is currently unsigned.

10. Washington Nationals – Drew Storen (P)

The Nationals hold the distinction of being one of two teams who passed on Trout not once, but twice in the 2009 Draft.

Storen showed a lot of promise as a back-end-of-the-bullpen arm by saving 43 games for the Nationals in just his second season.  He has been unable to hold on to the closer’s role for a team that had World Series aspirations, and is now pitching in the Royals pen.

11. Colorado Rockies – Tyler Matzek (P)

Matzek pitched 2 seasons for the Rockies before being sidelined with injuries.  Since then, he has spent time in the minors and the independent leagues before being out of baseball altogether.  In 2019, he is trying to catch back on and signed a minor league contract with Arizona.

12. Kansas City Royals – Aaron Crow (P)

Crow experienced initial success in the majors by spending four seasons in the Royals bullpen.  He posted a 3.43 ERA over that span and made one All Star team.  Since being traded to the Marlins, he has been unable to make it back to the MLB level.  Crow is now pitching in the Mexican League.

13. Oakland Athletics – Grant Green (2B/SS/OF)

Green has spent portions of 5 seasons at the MLB level, amassing 353 plate appearances with an OPS of .620, and is now playing in the Mexican League.

14. Texas Rangers – Matt Purke (P)

Purke is currently unsigned (and possibly out of baseball now) after logging just 18 innings pitched with the Chicago White Sox.

15. Cleveland Indians – Alex White (P)

White started 30 games over the course of 2 seasons for the Indians and finished with a career ERA of 6.03.  He is now pitching in an independent league.

21. Houston Astros – Jiovanni Mier (IF)

Mier has been a career minor leaguer and is currently playing in the Mexican League.

22. Minnesota Twins – Kyle Gibson (P)

Gibson has been a mainstay in the back end of the Twins’ starting rotation over the past 6 seasons.  He has a career ERA of 4.47 and ERA+ of 94.

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23. Chicago White Sox – Jared Mitchell (OF)

Mitchell has been a career minor leaguer and is currently playing in an independent league.

24. Los Angeles Angels – Randal Grichuk (OF)

Even the Angels don’t get a pass for this draft, as they ultimately decided to take Grichuk before drafting Trout.  I’d imagine this was for contract reasons, but it’s still amusing that they too belong on the list of teams that passed on the future Hall of Famer.

Grichuk has had a good career averaging about 450 at bats per year since debuting with St. Louis showcasing good power and speed and has a career OPS of .789.

First round picks are never a sure thing

One of the common threads illustrated with this list of players is that a career can easily go off track for a multitude of reasons, primarily injuries.  Major League Baseball clubs are always trying to stockpile arms, as evidenced by the  15 pitchers taken in the first 24 picks of the 2009 draft.  The double edged sword of pitchers being the most volatile position on the field and hardest position to acquire a frontline player leads to teams hoarding as many as possible due to the high flameout rate.

Ultimately, Trout will likely retire as an Angel, and 21 teams are left wondering “what could have been?”  There were a number of high potential guys to come out of this group of picks, but Trout will undoubtedly finish as an all time great.