Kansas City Royals: Turning Ian Kennedy into a Fireman

Look closer at Kansas City Royals pitcher Ian Kennedy’s advanced metrics and you’ll find that the former starter could make a resurgence as a relief ace.

Amidst the flurry of extensions handed out to young stars over the past few days, you probably missed that Ian Kennedy will no longer be pitching out of the rotation for the Kansas City Royals. Instead, he’ll be making a transition to the Royals bullpen.

It is safe to say the Royals can’t be thrilled about signing Kennedy to a $70M deal back in 2015 as they are now on the hook for some big salaries for a mere reliever. This isn’t a death knell though and Kansas City may be able to get some value out of Kennedy in the meantime.

A lot about pitching has changed since 2015, reliever usage is rampant and multi-inning relievers are some of the most valuable commodities in the game down the stretch and in the postseason. Since the Kansas City Royals are poised to be sellers at the trade deadline this season, let’s find a way to turn Ian Kennedy into a lights-out fireman.

Kennedy features a four-pitch mix, however, we can simplify that by eliminating the change-up and cutter and having him rely on a fastball/curveball combo.

According to Fangraphs, Kennedy threw his fastball 60% of the time and his curve 20% so that gives him another 20% to reallocate to either his fastball or curveball.  Using Statcast, how could Kennedy best optimize his repertoire.

Starting with velocity, Kennedy possesses a fastball that averages 91.9 MPH. By moving to relief and having to face fewer hitters, this should give him a boost into the 94-95 range where seemingly every reliever is operating these days.

In terms of raw spin rate, his fastball checks in at a strong 2371 RPMs (comparable to Trevor Bauer) and his curveball RPM is a little below average at 2428 but shares practically the same rate as Max Scherzer.

At least on raw pitch information, we have some interesting pieces to work with.  Kennedy is a fly ball pitcher who strikes out 20% of hitters and walks 8%.  Since 82% of Kennedy’s hitters put the ball in play, contact management is critical.

Kennedy fairs alright in the category, with an 88.9 average exit velocity against (average is 90 mph).  Looking at his pitch heat map, we can identify some of his problems.  Kennedy lives in the middle of the zone and as a contact pitcher, that is too much.

In fact, all of Kennedy’s hardest exit velocities come in the middle horizontal third of the plate.  Kennedy has the lowest exit velocities in the top outside third (87.6 MPH) and bottom outside third (85.9 MPH) but rarely gets his pitches there.  He is even better on out-of-zone exit velocity, registering around 80 mph on the outside batter’s box.

Getting more granular, Kennedy’s curveball has an average exit velocity of 86.4 mph.  It is even better in the previously mentioned zone quadrants.

So Ian Kennedy has displayed a curveball that limits exit velocities, especially when thrown down and away to right-handed hitters and a fastball that that plays well in the same locations, but also can be thrown up in the zone.  If I’m the Kansas City Royals, I would encourage Kennedy to throw his fastball curve-ball combo 60/40 down and away to righties and try to get them to chase out of the zone later in the count.

With his fastball velocity up and his already good spin, Kennedy could potentially miss more bats and set up his curve better.  This approach would keep hitters off balance and lead to more strikeouts and less hard contact.

Based on this analysis, Kennedy has the pitching tools to be an effective and exciting reliever.  He wouldn’t be the first and won’t be the last to find a second gear in the bullpen.  While he has around $33M left on his contract, the Kansas City Royals could pay that down in order to get a better prospect at the deadline when reliever prices are at their highest.

Years ago, moving to the bullpen was the first step to being out of baseball for a lot of guys.  Now, it can be a step to stardom and resurgence.  Ian Kennedy is getting his turn to give it a shot.  If he can change his pitch repertoire to thrive in relief, teams will be calling the Kansas City Royals asking about Ian Kennedy, fireman extraordinaire.