Reports: Red Sox, Chris Sale Agree on Extension Deal
By Ryan Sanders
Chris Sale is closing in on a contract extension with the Red Sox. The deal is rumored to be in the 5 year, $150M range.
This is the latest extension for superstars trading away free agent years in exchange for guaranteed security. Red Sox pitcher Chris Sale was expected to be one of the aces available next off-season but that will no longer be the case.
Sale has been an absolute animal since being drafted in the first round out of Florida Gulf Coast University. The White Sox took a chance on a wiry but electric pitcher who drew comparisons to Randy Johnson but also was pegged by some as a future reliever or injury risk due to his size.
Sale has been laughably good putting up no less than 4.8 WAR each season as full-time starter since 2012. Sale has turned in his best two years with the Red Socks with posting a 7.5 WAR and 6.2 WAR seasons in 2017 and 2018.
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There is a concern though, that the workload may have been catching up to him as he only pitched 158 innings this year, which ultimately cost him the Cy Young award. Boston smartly managed his workload throughout the year as Sale battled some ailments as all pitchers do.
Ultimately the Red Sox won the World Series and Sale got the last out striking out Manny Machado to end it. Sale has been as good as advertised and with the exception of 2018 has shown limited signs of slowing down.
He has shown that he is more than worthy of a massive extension. At 29, he is the same age as Patrick Corbin who just got $140M over 6 years from the Nats. Sale has been demonstrably better than Corbin for longer so it makes sense that he got the better deal despite not being a free agent. He isn’t getting David Price money or even Strasburg money, but Sale is hedging his bet by taking the money now. This was likely the best scenario for Sale with many large market teams sitting out of free agency even when there are elite players in it.
Using Fangraphs contract estimation tool, I punched in some data on Sale and it estimated his contributions over the next five years to be worth over $200M and nearly perfectly in line with the Zach Greinke’s contract. This analysis assumes Sale ages normally. Even if Sale ages poorly, he is expected to still be worth $188M.
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So while Sale appears to be leaving money on the table, the uncertain free agent market makes this a good deal for Sale, who is now set for the next 5 lifetimes, and the Red Socks who continue to get an ace pitcher.