Best offseason trade not made by Phillies GM
In November, 23 Phillies were available on the market including two named relievers, but general manager Matt Klentak now needs the better of those two setup men for the 2019 squad.
Unexpected developments:
Even though the Philadelphia Phillies faithful have long forgotten those autumn days due to free-agency distractions, that original strength is now weaker because of injuries and poor spring performances. Yes, early December’s excess has become March’s shortage.
IN OTHER WORDS: “The minute one utters a certainty, the opposite comes to mind.” – May Sarton
Out of the chute, Klentak was listening on most players but mentioning Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter specifically. They represent commitments of $6.5 million and $9 million respectively. However, the red pinstripes had younger, inexpensive, successful options and wanted to move dollars and/or receive prospects.
On the other hand, the front office addressed the urgency for a late-inning fireman by signing David Robertson. And since they only needed one, why ink Craig Kimbrel when they already had three qualified relievers too many? Plug another hole, no?
This winter, the Phils learned proven setup men weren’t atop the wish list of many GMs. That stated, Neshek at $6.5 million probably didn’t draw reasonable offers, and he wasn’t alone in that unexpected situation. Apparently, many like-minded teams cut corners in their pens.
Many organizations opted for cheaper bullpen alternatives. Basically, they spent elsewhere despite having relief-corps shortcomings, or they elected for in-house candidates. But while some are at ownership’s limits financially, others have interest in bargains or injury replacements.
Besides Kimbrel, Ryan Madson is still available, but he like the top-tier closer is in a higher price range. Moreover, even though some national publications blame the hurlers for unrealistic expectations, clubs aren’t showing interest even in a $5 million reliever.
When camp opened, the Fightins had Seranthony Dominguez, Hector Neris, Robertson, Neshek, and Hunter for five bullpen seats. But they also had six moundsmen for their three remaining openings: Victor Arano, Adam Morgan, Edubray Ramos, Jose Alvarez, James Pazos, and Juan Nicasio.
Final cuts:
One by one, the Phillies faced unanticipated difficulties because of injury and ineffectiveness. Therefore, those events determined the Opening Day pen more than Klentak making gut-wrenching decisions.
Hunter, who didn’t pitch in any games, will be on the injured list due to a grade 1 flexor strain in his right arm. Unfortunately, he became questionable on Feb. 27 for early April.
Based on his demotion to the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, Pazos lost the second lefty competition to Alvarez, who is out of options. But if anything happens, the Fightins want Pazos getting regular work to be ready. Acquired in December, Pazos had a 2.88 ERA for 50 frames with the 2018 Seattle Mariners.
While Pazos had three poor outings out of eight, Alvarez had four out of 11. Picked up from the Los Angeles Angels, he had produced a 2.71 ERA for 63 innings last summer and came to the red pinstripes for Luis Garcia.
As for Neshek, the Phils must be happy about not moving him during the Hot Stove season because Klentak now has less-appealing alternatives. Basically, Neshek has been his usual reliable self with only one bad appearance out of seven.
Morgan is another dependable bullpen piece who had only two poor outings out of nine this spring. Yes, he’s the primary southpaw reliever again this year, and the team will count on him to provide four decent performances out of every five.
Staying or going:
With Hunter and Pazos out of the mix, the Phillies decided to keep Ramos and Nicasio out of the three remaining possibilities. But while they haven’t had sparkling March results, the red pinstripes could cut Nicascio or demote Ramos when Hunter is ready.
FOR WHAT IT’S WORTH: “Opportunity often comes disguised in the form of misfortune, or temporary defeat.” – Napoleon Hill
As for Arano, he pitched his way to Lehigh Valley with no decent outings out of seven. And even though Kapler expected the hurler with a 2.73 ERA for 59 1/3 frames during the 2018 campaign to make the squad, he needs time with the IronPigs to redeem himself.
Regarding Nicasio, he had a 6.00 ERA for 42 innings with Seattle in ’18. But he also had two good outings for the 2017 Phils between being on the Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals. However, he’s struggled in four of his seven camp outings.
While Ramos has had three poor appearances out of seven in camp, he had produced a 2.32 ERA for 42 2/3 frames last summer. But he’ll probably avoid a demotion when Hunter returns.
To sum up, Klentak faced decisions opposite to those he probably had anticipated in February. Yes, he had to pick who to keep and hope for good fortune, but he had expected the problem of having a surplus and needing to do what? Flip a coin!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
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Phillies statistical results toward 80 percent:
- Dominguez: 43 good, 1 so-so and 1 blowup out of 53 total for 83.0%
- Neris: 38 good, 2 so-so and 4 blowups out of 53 total for 75.5%
- Neshek: 24 good, 2 so-so and 1 blowup out of 30 total for 86.7%
- Morgan: 42 good, 9 so-so and 1 blowup out of 67 total for 76.1%
- Ramos: 38 good, 8 so-so and 1 blowup out of 52 total for 88.5%
- Hunter: 40 good, 7 so-so and 0 blowups out of 65 total for 72.3%
- Arano: 48 good, 7 so-so and 2 blowups out of 60 total for 80.0%
A blowup is 4 ER for less than 2 innings or 3 ER for less than 1 inning.
Bad outings are the numerical difference.
Rule of thumb is 4 good and so-so outings out of every 5 or 80%.
New Phillies statistical results toward 80 percent:
- Robertson: 54 good, 0 so-so and 2 blowups out of 69 total for 78.3%
- Alvarez: 58 good, 3 so-so and 2 blowups out of 76 total for 80.3%
- Nicasio: 28 good, 2 so-so and 3 blowups out of 65 total for 65.2%
- Pazos: 44 good, 4 so-so and 1 blowup out of 60 total for 80.0%
Phillies relievers:
- Dominguez, 24: 53 Gms., 58 Inn., a 2.95 ERA, 16 Saves, 14 Holds, 4 BS, a 2.85 FIP, a 3.04 xFIP, a 2.81 SIERA, a 1.3 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.
- Neris, 29.5: 53 Gms., 47 2/3 Inn., a 5.10 ERA, 11 Saves, 4 Holds, 3 BS, a 4.04 FIP, a 2.71 xFIP, a 2.28 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.
- Neshek, 38.5: 30 Gms., 24 1/3 Inn., a 2.59 ERA, 5 Saves, 6 Holds, a 3.61 FIP, a 4.99 xFIP, a 4.51 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
- Morgan, 29: 67 Gms., 49 1/3 Inn., a 3.83 ERA, 1 Save, 14 Holds, a 3.79 FIP, a 3.81 xFIP, a 3.77 SIERA, a 0.4 fWAR and a 1.44 WHIP.
- Ramos, 26: 52 Gms., 42 2/3 Inn., a 2.32 ERA, 1 Save, 12 Holds, a 3.54 FIP, a 4.37 xFIP, a 3.79 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
- Hunter, 32.5: 65 Gms., 64 Inn., a 3.80 ERA, 4 Saves, 25 Holds, a 3.63 FIP, a 4.01 xFIP, a 3.69 SIERA, a 0.7 fWAR and a 1.25 WHIP.
- Arano, 24: 60 Gms., 59 1/3 Inn., a 2.73 ERA, 3 Saves, 10 Holds, a 3.36 FIP, a 3.94 xFIP, a 3.48 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.20 WHIP.
New Phillies relievers:
- Robertson, almost 34: 69 Gms., 69 2/3 Inn., a 3.23 ERA, 5 Saves, 21 Holds, a 2.97 FIP, a 3.09 xFIP, a 2.88 SIERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 1.03 WHIP.
- Alvarez, 29.5: 76 Gms., 63 Inn., a 2.71 ERA, 14 Holds, a 3.05 FIP, a 3.98 xFIP, a 3.78 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.16 WHIP.
- Nicasio, 32.5: 46 Gms., 42 Inn., a 6.00 ERA, 19 Holds, a 2.99 FIP, a 3.18 xFIP, a 2.60 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.
- Pazos, 27.5: 60 Gms., 50 Inn., a 2.88 ERA, 19 Holds, a 3.60 FIP, a 4.15 xFIP, a 3.75 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.24 WHIP.
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