The Chicago Cubs have agreed to a four year, $55.5 million extension with Kyle Hendricks.
Kyle Hendricks and the Chicago Cubs came to agreement on an extension worth $55.5M over four years. The deal also comes with a $16M vesting option if he finishes top 3 in Cy Young voting and also comes with a $1.5M buyout. The deal will carry Hendricks through his age 33 season, and, for an additional year if the option vests.
Hendricks, an eight rounder out of Dartmouth College, was acquired from the Texas Rangers in a 2012 deadline deal for closer Ryan Dempster. Hendricks made his Cubs debut nearly 2 years later, chipping in 13 starts and 80 innings good for a 2.46 ERA and 1.6 WAR. From 2015 onward, Hendricks has thrown at least 180 innings in every season except 2017 (He threw 140).
Hendricks consistently draws Greg Maddux comps for succeeding with impeccable control and below average velocity. Everything in his arsenal spins and he can manipulate his fastball, change-up, breaking ball to do whatever he wants to keep hitters off balance. Contact management is a key part of Hendricks continuing success and he does just that, generating ground balls nearly 50% of the time and limiting contact to a weak average exit velocity of 85.2 MPH.
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In today’s game, velocity is king but Hendricks has shown that you can still have success with finesse. In fact, since Hendricks made his debut in 2014, he was 21st among all pitchers in WAR. If you change the parameters to 2015, Hendricks first full season in the rotation, he is a top 20 pitcher, and has been as good or better than guys like James Paxton, Madison Bumgarner, and Dallas Keuchel (more on him in a moment). So even though he doesn’t fit the archetype of a flame thrower, he is still one of the better pitchers in baseball.
Which brings us to the deal. In terms of pure dollars/WAR (using an $8M per win valuation), Hendricks only needs to be worth 7 WAR over the life of the deal to make this a win for the Cubs.
Given that Hendricks has put up 15 WAR over 5 seasons, this seems reasonably attainable for Hendricks. There are some risks however, Hendricks features one of the slowest fastballs in baseball and one could wonder how much velocity he could stand to lose and still be an effective pitcher.
At the end of the day, Hendricks produces and he provides value to the Cubs. Nathan Eovaldi was just a free agent who got $68M over 4 years. Interestingly, Eovaldi has less career WAR than Hendricks (12.4 vs 15) and hasn’t had a season as good as him either (3.3 vs 4.1). Eovaldi had the advantage of being a free agent but their deals aren’t that far off from each other. Eovaldi has the flame throwing arsenal teams covet along with possibly unrealized potential. Ultimately, Hendricks has been the better pitcher to date and is being paid comparably, which isn’t something you would think about until you dig into the numbers.
This feels like a fair deal for both player and team. From the Cubs perspective, they lock in a pitcher who has anchored the rotation and pitched successfully in the regular season and post season. For Kyle Hendricks, he gets guaranteed money and doesn’t have to go through free agency. Dallas Keuchel and Kyle Hendricks have produced virtually the same WAR and Keuchel remains a free agent as teams are wary of his diminishing velocity. Hendricks would likely be facing the same predicament had he held out and made it to free agency.
While comparing Hendricks to a Hall of Famer isn’t fair, a more realistic comp may be Doug Fister, who was an under appreciated but still valuable starting pitcher. Hendricks too, doesn’t get the appreciation he deserves as one of the games best pitchers, but the Professor is going to keep heading to the mound every fifth day to confuse hitters and paint masterpieces while helping the Chicago Cubs win games.