Instead of manipulating service time, the San Diego Padres are committed to putting the best possible team on the field.
Over the past few days, the San Diego Padres have told two of their top prospects that instead of going to AAA to work on their defense and getting lefties out, they are going to be on the roster in the big leagues. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack are two of the Padres most exciting prospects and project to be among their best regulars.
It is quite refreshing to see a team say to hell with service time to start the season after we have seen Nick Senzel and Eloy Jiminez (temporarily) be sent down because of service time manipulation poor defense, and to have Mark Shapiro say asinine things about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. not being a major league player. After signing Manny Machado, the Padres have clearly indicated they want to challenge the Dodgers and Rockies for the Throne now.
This is going to be an excellent test case for Major League Baseball moving forward in regards to handling service time for top prospects. Just because the Padres best prospects are on the big league roster now doesn’t necessarily mean they will stay there for the full season. The team could still send them down throughout the season for X amount of days and ensure that they gain that seventh year of control then. Let’s walk through a few scenarios to see how this could play out.
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Padres Struggle, Tatis and Paddack Struggle
In this scenario, the Padres fall flat out of the gate and have an 8-17 record after the first month of the season. Additionally, Tatis Jr. has struggled offensively and is sitting around replacement level despite hitting near the top of the order and getting everyday reps at SS.
Likewise, Paddack struggles through his first month of starts and is sitting on a 5.50 ERA and doesn’t have peripherals that say it is a fluke. In this scenario, it would be pretty easy for the Padres brass to say “Not our Year” and option them both back to the minors for additional seasoning, while also ensuring they gain the 7th year of control over both.
Padres Succeed, Tatis and Paddack Succeed
In this scenario, the San Diego Padres are tied at the top of the division with the Dodgers and the prospects have been producing so far. Tatis is the everyday shortstop and has already been worth 1 WAR in just a month of games. Paddack carries over his spring training and is looking like a young James Shields carving up hitters with his fastball change-up combo sparking calls that both could be the Rookies of the Year. The Padres would, of course, be happiest with this arrangement because the team is winning and its young stars are shining. The chance they get sent back is pretty low in this scenario.
Padres are Average, Tatis and Paddack are Average/Streaky
This feels like the most likely scenario and also the trickiest for both the Padres, Players Union and MLB as a whole. The Padres are 13-12, Tatis looks more like Starlin Castro than Carlos Correa, and Paddack looks more like a number 5 starter than mid rotation anchor. Both still are adding value to the big league club, though it’s an uninspiring amount. Now what?
The Padres could tactically wait for either Tatis or Paddack to struggle for a week and then use that as an excuse to send them down to work on something just long enough to gain that seventh year of control. The question is what level of production warrants sending a player down?
While not directly the same, Ian Happ represents an interesting proxy. Despite being an above average hitter that plays everywhere, the Cubs sent him down to AAA to cut down on strikeouts and play every day. Happ was worth 1.9 WAR in his first season and 1.5 WAR in his second.
So the barometer for being sent down despite MLB performance appears to be producing at a rate less than that of the average player. Put simply, if you aren’t approaching the 2 win threshold, the team could send you down.
The San Diego Padres should be applauded for the boldness of breaking camp with their best team. While that feels stupid to write, that is unfortunately how the business of baseball works. It will be an interesting story line to follow what the Padres do if the scenarios above materialize.