San Diego Padres: Analyzing Ian Kinsler’s Hall of Fame Chances
By Brad Faber
San Diego Padres second baseman Ian Kinsler has put together a great career. But is he Hall of Fame worthy?
Last Friday, San Diego Padres second baseman Ian Kinsler slugged the 249th home run of his career. He is now just three home runs away from tying Bret Boone for ninth on the all-time list among second basemen. As long as Kinsler stays healthy this season, once he passes Boone, he will also be well within striking distance of several others, including Hall of Famers.
While Kinsler is coming off of a couple of down years at the plate , he has still averaged 18 home runs per season since the start of 2017. An 18-homer season would easily push Kinsler past Joe Gordon (253) and Chase Utley (259). Kinsler would also be just two home runs shy of Joe Morgan (268).
Gordon and Morgan are both Hall of Famers. Utley will not be eligible for the Hall of Fame ballot until 2024. While it is possible that Utley may come up a bit short of Cooperstown, his Hall of Fame case is something that many have already begun to discuss. It is also fair to wonder about Kinsler’s Hall of Fame chances as well.
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Kinsler has a career bWAR of 57.5. The average bWAR of Hall of Fame second basemen is 69.4. While Kinsler isn’t there yet, it is certainly possible that he could come reasonably close with a strong finish to his career. Over the past two seasons, Kinsler has been about a 2.5-win player. Kinsler is only under contract through 2020, with a club option for 2021, but another pair of 2.5-win seasons would get him up to a career bWAR of 62.5. For what it’s worth, Utley had a 65.4 career bWAR.
Between 2013-16, Kinsler was consistently a 5.0-plus win player, going by bWAR. While he will turn 37 years old this summer, perhaps it is still possible that he can get back to being the player he was just a few years ago.
Furthermore, a large portion of Kinsler’s value comes from his defense. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, Kinsler ranks first among all qualified second basemen with 79 defensive runs saved. Even as his offense has slowed, he has continued to “pick it” at second base.
Of course, even if Kinsler does end up bringing his career bWAR comparably close to that of the average Hall of Fame second baseman, it still isn’t a slam dunk that he would be a Hall of Famer. For instance, Lou Whitaker has a career bWAR of 75.1, and as of now, is still not in Cooperstown. Moreover, Kinsler JAWS, or “career war averaged with his 7-year peak,” is 49.0, which is also below the average of Hall of Fame second basemen (56.9).
Moreover, while Kinsler’s power numbers could certainly be a decent enough barometer to help measure his Hall of Fame chances, it is also worth noting that Jeff Kent currently holds the record for the most home runs by a second baseman with 377. Kent has never received more than 18.1 percent of the vote in six years on the ballot.
That said, Kinsler’s resume continues to grow. In addition increasing his home run total and positioning himself to surpass other second basemen on the all-time list, Kinsler is nearing the 2,000-hit milestone as well. He currently has 1,946 career knocks, leaving him just 54 hits shy.
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A big part of whether or not Kinsler can further bolster his Hall of Fame case will likely hinge on how he performs over the next couple of seasons and if he can continue playing beyond his current contract. Right now, odds are he isn’t quite a Hall of Famer, but if he can string together a few more solid seasons, his case for Cooperstown should at least warrant a fair amount of consideration.