Minnesota Twins: Does Nelson Cruz Have A Path To 500 Home Runs?

Now in his late 30s, Minnesota Twins Slugger Nelson Cruz has been one of the best power hitters in baseball for several years now. It is possible that he might be able to get to 500 home runs?

Ten years ago, Nelson Cruz burst onto the scene with the Texas Rangers, hitting .260/.332/.524 (117 OPS+) with 33 home runs and 76 RBI during his age-28 season. Prior to 2009, Cruz had never hit more than nine home runs in a single year.

It could easily be argued that Cruz has continued to get even better with age. During a recent five-year stretch with the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners between 2014-18, Cruz led all of baseball with 203 homers, averaging a total of 41 long balls per season.  So far for the Minnesota Twins this year, he is hitting .333/.500/.611 (228 OPS+) with one homer and six RBIs. He is now sitting on 361 career long balls.

Since Cruz will not turn 39 years old until July, the 2019 campaign is considered his “age-38 season,” per Baseball Reference. If Cruz can continue hitting the way he has in recent years, a few more 40-homer seasons would have him knocking on the door of the 500 homer club. But is it even possible?

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For starters, Cruz is signed through only this season with a club option for next year. He would have to play beyond his current contract and continue hitting homers after the age of 40.

Per Baseball Almanac, Barry Bonds holds the record for most home runs hit by a player after turning 40 with 79. Former Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox catcher Carlton Fisk holds second place with 72 long balls. Bonds and Fisk played through their age-42 and age-45 seasons, respectively.

Although it is certainly possible that Cruz could get to 500 home runs, the odds appear to be very, very long. Here is one example of how he could possibly get there: If Cruz hits 40 home runs for the Twins this year, he will have an even 400  homers heading into the 2020 campaign. If he then hits 21 more home runs by July 1st 2020, which will be his 40th birthday, he would have to tie Bonds’ record and play long enough to hit another 79 homers after turning 40.

Moreover, age isn’t the only obstacle that could stand in the way of Cruz getting to 500 homers either. Being that he is mostly a DH these days, he loses at-bats when the Twins play in National League parks during interleague play. He would obviously have to stay healthy and avoid injuries as well.

Nevertheless, Cruz has been one of the best power hitters of the past decade. It will be interesting to see how many more homers he can tally to his total before all is said and done.