The Cleveland Indians and Their Other-Other-Other Ace

The Cleveland Indians have ridden the backs of incredible pitching to success. After two GS, its time to pay attention to the teams other-other-other ace.

The Cleveland Indians rotation features two-time Cy Young Winner Corey Kluber, mad scientist Trevor Bauer, and the excellent Carlos Carrasco who flew under the radar for far too long.  Now, there is another Indians pitcher to pay attention to.  Indians fans already knew he was very good last year but after his first two starts of 2019, it is time to pay attention to Mike Clevinger.

Let’s start with what he has done lately, in his two starts this year he has struck out 22 hitters and has yet to allow an earned run.  His 22 strikeouts ranks him top five in the league so far (small sample size but still) this year and very close to reigning CY Young champion Jacob deGrom, who seems to be immune from any #LOLMets tomfoolery.

Back to Clevinger, his average fastball velocity this year has been 95.3 MPH, up from 93.6 in 2018.  That jump represents one of the largest jumps in velocity from last year to this year.  This likely isn’t a blip in the radar or a gun running hot because Clevinger worked this offseason on increasing his velocity.  This velocity could give him the next gear to propel him into the upper echelon of Aces in baseball.

Most people probably don’t think of Clevinger as an ace, he isn’t even the best pitcher in his own rotation but maybe you should.  In 2018, he was worth 4.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) good enough to be within the top 15 pitchers in baseball.  If you do the same exercise from 2017 to the present day, you will find Clevinger in the top 20 with three of his fellow rotation mates ahead of him.

To understand how Clevinger has been so effective, we will hone in on his 2018 season.

In 2018, Clevinger made 32 starts, pitched 200 innings with a 3.02 ERA.  His repertoire, a fastball, slider, curveball, and change-up helped to mow down 207 hitters over the year.

If you look at adjusted stats, Clevinger’s  Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.52 and FIP- of 83 (meaning he was 17% better than the average pitcher), both lend support to Clevinger being a very good pitcher.  Statcast also paints a rosy picture as Clevinger induces weak contact with his average exit velocity of 85.5 MPH.

Looking ahead, Clevinger should be exciting to watch and could find another level of production.  He has already begun bumping up the usage of his fastball with his newfound velocity (from 52.9% to 57.5%).   Looking at his pitch heat map, you can see a concerted effort to pump his fastball up in the zone to generate more swings and misses.

Conversely, if you look at his 2018 map here, you see a pitcher living down in the zone and away from right-handers.  Now compare that to his 2019 map, we see a pitcher starting to work up in the zone.  Yes, it is only two starts, but things like this are usually deliberate and point towards new tendencies.

If Mike Clevinger pitched somewhere else, he would likely be considered an ace and one of the better pitchers in baseball.  Since he pitches in Cleveland, however, he is the fourth starter in the rotation and doesn’t get the notoriety he deserves.

If his increase in velocity sticks and each start includes double-digit punch outs, the league and fans will be talking about Clevinger in the same breath as Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Cleveland Indians teammate Corey Kluber.  He could even be a dark horse for the CY Young award this year.

You may not have appreciated his greatness until now, but Mike Clevinger could rapidly become must-see TV, not bad for a “fourth” starter.