NL East crown: Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
In a four-team race, the Phillies will face the defending division champion Atlanta Braves 16 more times, and the faithful of both organizations can expect hard-fought games if health isn’t a factor.
Continuing the rivalry:
While Philadelphia Phillies fans are basking in the sunshine of heralded expectations, Atlanta is briefly missing a prominent rotation piece. However, before it’s over, the Braves will make their presence felt because they too have youngsters trying to make their mark. And they won’t forget those three losses.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Emulation is not rivalry. Emulation is the child of ambition; rivalry is the unlovable daughter of envy.” – Honore de Balzac
In 2018, both franchises arrived a season early with only Atlanta reaching the finish line to capture the divisional pennant. Meanwhile, the Fightins had an 80-82 record after a dismal second half, as the Braves advanced to the NLDS with a 90-72 mark.
Regarding offseason changes, Atlanta signed Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann, but they did not re-up Anibal Sanchez. As for the red pinstripes, they acquired Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson and Jose Alvarez.
While the Braves lineup is solid one through six, their middle relief is thin, and their five-man staff may be too dependent on rookie hurlers. Concerning the Phils, the addition of four hitters has transformed their everyday eight into arguably the National League’s best, but their rotation has three still-developing arms.
Based on NL East predictions currently, the average of four national sites has Atlanta finishing fourth with 82 victories: Their top forecast is 84 wins to a low of 79. On the other hand, the hometown nine’s midpoint for third place is 86.6 with a ceiling of 88 triumphs to a floor of 85.
Injurywise, the Braves are waiting for ace Mike Foltynewicz‘s return, while the Fightins will be without a setup man due to his recent setback. But regressions and surprises will also be factors. So, will this be the 162 when a developing player makes an impact?
Intangibles are usually a difference-maker. For example, adding a marque name can boost clubhouse spirits to produce a winning attitude and higher expectations. But the opposite can also be true due to a campaign-ending surgery.
Before game one:
After four solid months, the Phillies had produced a 63-48 record through Aug. 5, but they crashed and burned with a 17-34 finish. However, Jake Arrieta pitched despite June’s knee injury, and Cesar Hernandez played with a broken foot from July 22 through September. Both then were only a shadow of themselves.
As for the Braves, they followed up a 52-42 mark before the All-Star break with a 38-30 showing. But one reason for their continued success was a six-man rotation after mid-July’s vacation despite manager Snitker’s misgivings toward analytical data trumping his old-school preferences.
Regarding head-to-head results, the Braves went 12-7 capturing both halves: 7-5 and 5-2. But the clubs did not face each other from May 24 through Sept.19, Unfortunately, 10 of the 19 contests came during rookie skipper Kapler’s first series and the Phils’ collapse.
Over the winter, Atlanta inked Donaldson for a 162 after his injury-riddled ’18, but he is only one year removed from averaging .270 with 33 home runs and 78 RBIs. On the other hand, they are now without Sanchez who had his best summer since 2013: He went 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA for 136 2/3 innings.
For the Phils, they acquired Robertson plus four of their lineup’s first five during the offseason: McCutchen (1), Segura (2), Harper (3) and Realmuto (5). This allowed Kapler to move three productive hitters to the bottom of the order. So far, they’ve plated 57 runs for a 6.3 average with a plus-21 scoring differential.
New Phillies hitting stats for 2018:
- McCutchen, 32.5: 155 Gms., 682 PA, a .255 Avg., a .368 OBP, 20 HR, 65 RBI and a .792 OPS.
- Segura, 29: 144 Gms., 632 PA, a .304 Avg., a .341 OBP, 10 HR, 63 RBI and a .755 OPS.
- Harper, 26.5: 159 Gms., 695 PA, a .249 Avg., a .393 OBP, 34 HR, 100 RBI and an .889 OPS.
- Realmuto, 28: 125 Gms., 531 PA, a .277 Avg., a .340 OBP, 21 HR, 74 RBI and an .825 OPS.
New Phillies pitching stats for 2018:
- Robertson, 34: 69 Gms., 69 2/3 Inn., a 3.23 ERA, 5 Saves and 21 Holds.
- Alvarez, almost 30: 76 Gms., 63 Inn., a 2.71 ERA and 14 Holds.
- Nicasio, 32.5: 46 Gms., 42 Inn., a 6.00 ERA and 19 Holds.
Predictions:
On the “ledger’s” plus side, the Phillies lineup can come back in most games, and they have enough pitching to reach the trading deadline. Minuses: The relief corps has had some early hiccups, while the bottom of the five-man staff still must live up to their potential.
As for the Braves, they have a solid offense: 52 runs (10 games) to the Fightins’ 57. And they’re sixth in NL runs to the Phils’ fourth. Unfortunately, middle relief is a weakness along with rookie starters: A player –according to a retired GM from a third organization– makes an impact in or after his third year.
Phillies total starts based on 30 annually:
- Nola at 95 for 3 campaigns of development.
- Velasquez at 77 for 2.5.
- Eickhoff at 66 for 2.
- Pivetta at 60 for 2.
- Eflin at 48 for 1.5.
Braves total starts based on 30 annually:
- Foltynewicz at 96 for 3 campaigns of development.
- Newcomb at 51 for 1.5.
- Fried at 10 for 0.5.
- Toussaint at 5.
- Soroka at 5.
- Wilson at 2.
- Wright at 2.
Like the red pinstripes, the Braves have moundsmen with less than 60-90 starts, and these hurlers are experiencing growing pains. To illustrate, Sean Newcomb is having control problems, and so is Nick Pivetta: 70 percent accuracy is the major league average or 70 of every 100 pitches.
Regarding forecasts, these numbers will change throughout the season due to injuries, trades and the overall performance of the franchise. In other words, any of four organizations could win the NL East, and you should expect a roller-coaster stretch drive to September’s end.
Victory predictions from four national sources:
- Nationals: 90, 86, 89 and 87 for an average of 88.
- Mets: 87, 86, 88 and 85 for an average of 87.
- Phillies: 87, 86, 88 and 85 for an average of 86.5.
- Braves: 83, 82, 84 and 79 for an average of 82.
From the above foretelling, one difference is each franchise’s rotation. But the Nats won the division on paper last season too. Therefore, the 2011 Phillies with four aces would top this list.
Hoped-for outcomes:
After the Phillies winter of stupid money, many fans are anticipating the playoffs, but no club can plug every hole. In fact, no organization wants to pay the 77.5 percent tax annually and lose draft slotting on dollars exceeding the threshold by $40 million. Translation: Parity rules.
Regarding Atlanta, their supporters now have expectations after making 2018’s postseason and adding Donaldson to a solid offense. On the other hand, their five-man staff, even healthy, has question marks; and some fans are pointing to the lack of a signing or two by the front office.
The contending franchise without season-altering injuries has the best shot at the divisional crown. However, regressions from stellar campaigns last summer must not outweigh the surprises of the current 162. For the most part, though, the faithful can count on veterans to produce accordingly.
Another consideration: A star in his first year with a new club tends to produce at a career-high level. And if that player is a Harper, a Donaldson or a Realmuto, their contributions will be substantial. But one exception is a hitter in a new league.
Perhaps, intangibles are a factor analytics-oriented devotees can’t –or are willing to– admit. For instance, while injuries and struggles dampen a team’s enthusiasm, riding an emotional high leads to having fun and a fast start.
Like catching a bug, lacking success or putting up crooked numbers can spread like wildfire. But secure leads relax hitters while producing essential contributions and a positive outcome almost daily. Yes, winning is contagious!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
New Phillies plate-discipline for 2018:
- McCutchen: 21.3 K% and 13.9 BB% with a .368 OBP.
- Segura: 10.9 K% and 5.1 BB% with a .341 OBP.
- Harper: 24.3 K% and 18.7 BB% with a .393 OBP.
- Realmuto: 19.6 K% and 7.2 BB% with a .340 OBP.
New Braves plate-discipline for 2018:
- Donaldson: 24.7 K% and 14.2 BB% with a .352 OBP.
- McCann: 18.5 K% and 8.8 BB% with a .301 OBP.
Former Phillies plate-discipline for 2018:
- Santana: 13.7 K% and 16.2 BB% with a .352 OBP.
- Alfaro: 28.9 K% and 2.6 BB% with a .324 OBP.
- Crawford 26.8 K% and 9.4 BB% with a .341 OBP.
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
New Phillies statistics for 2018:
- McCutchen, 32.5: 155 Gms., 682 PA, a .255 Avg., a .368 OBP, a .424 SLG, a .169 ISO, a .304 BABIP, 20 HR, 65 RBI, a .792 OPS and a 2.6 fWAR.
- Segura, 29: 144 Gms., 632 PA, a .304 Avg., a .341 OBP, a .415 SLG, a .111 ISO, a .327 BABIP, 10 HR, 63 RBI, a .755 OPS and a 3.8 fWAR.
- Harper, 26.5: 159 Gms., 695 PA, a .249 Avg., a .393 OBP, a .496 SLG, a .247 ISO, a .289 BABIP, 34 HR, 100 RBI, an .889 OPS and a 3.5 fWAR.
- Realmuto, 28: 125 Gms., 531 PA, a .277 Avg., a .340 OBP, a .484 SLG, a .208 ISO, a .312 BABIP, 21 HR, 74 RBI, an .825 OPS and a 4.8 fWAR.
Former Phillies statistics for 2018:
- Santana, 33: 161 Gms., 679 PA, a .229 Avg., a .352 OBP, a .414 SLG, a .186 ISO, a .231 BABIP, 24 HR, 86 RBI, a .766 OPS and a 1.9 fWAR.
- Alfaro, 25.5: 106 Gms., 377 PA, a .262 Avg., a .324 OBP, a .407 SLG, a .145 ISO, a .406 BABIP, 10 HR, 37 RBI, a .731 OPS and a 3.1 fWAR.
- Crawford, 24: 49 Gms., 138 PA, a .214 Avg., a .319 OBP, a .393 SLG, a .179 ISO, a .286 BABIP, 3 HR, 12 RBI, a .712 OPS and a 0.3 fWAR.
New Braves statistics for 2018:
- Donaldson, 33: 52 Gms., 219 PA, a .246 Avg., a .352 OBP, a .449 SLG, a .203 ISO, a .302 BABIP, 8 HR, 23 RBI, an .801 OPS and a 1.3 fWAR.
- McCann, 35: 63 Gms., 216 PA, a .212 Avg., a .301 OBP, a .339 SLG, a .127 ISO, a .229 BABIP, 7 HR, 23 RBI, a .640 OPS and a 0.1 fWAR.
Former Phillies statistics for 2018:
- Santana, 33: 161 Gms., 679 PA, a .229 Avg., a .352 OBP, a .414 SLG, a .186 ISO, a .231 BABIP, 24 HR, 86 RBI, a .766 OPS and a 1.9 fWAR.
- Alfaro, 25.5: 106 Gms., 377 PA, a .262 Avg., a .324 OBP, a .407 SLG, a .145 ISO, a .406 BABIP, 10 HR, 37 RBI, a .731 OPS and a 3.1 fWAR.
- Crawford, 24: 49 Gms., 138 PA, a .214 Avg., a .319 OBP, a .393 SLG, a .179 ISO, a .286 BABIP, 3 HR, 12 RBI, a .712 OPS and a 0.3 fWAR.
New Phillies statistics for 2018:
- Robertson, 34: 69 Gms., 69 2/3 Inn., a 3.23 ERA, 5 Saves, 21 Holds, a 2.97 FIP, a 3.09 xFIP, a 2.88 SIERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 1.03 WHIP.
- Alvarez, almost 30: 76 Gms., 63 Inn., a 2.71 ERA, 14 Holds, a 3.05 FIP, a 3.98 xFIP, a 3.78 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.16 WHIP.
- Nicasio, 32.5: 46 Gms., 42 Inn., a 6.00 ERA, 19 Holds, a 2.99 FIP, a 3.18 xFIP, a 2.60 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.
Former Braves statistics for 2018:
- Sanchez, 35: 25 Gms. (1 relief), 136 2/3 Inn., 7-6, a 2.83 ERA, a 3.62 FIP, a 3.81 xFIP, a 3.85 SIERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 1.08 WHIP.
Next. Phillies: Push-button lineup's hurdles. dark
If you have any questions or opinions regarding Philadelphia Phillies players, please open the comments section.