Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto is not the Joey Votto we know anymore
By Yeon Lee
While it may be too early in the season, there are a few signs that this is not the Cincinnati Reds veteran Joey Votto whom we’ve grown to know.
Cincinnati Reds veteran Joey Votto is well known for his plate discipline. Even with his career-worst season last year, His career slash line is still .310/ .427 /.529. He is currently ranked at 12th on Based on Ball percentage leader of all time. Undoubtedly, his incredible walk & K rate makes him stand out to be one of the greatest players in our generation.
However, even though it could be contemplated as hasty speculation to evaluate a player on April, there are a few signs that this is not the Joey Votto whom we have enjoyed watching over the years.
Some people may argue that it is only nine games that he can pick up the momentum anytime soon as he has. Nevertheless, we need to take a look at some underlying stats that tell us what is going on.
One of the main problems is his plate discipline. Apparently, his BB & K% so far is respectively 11.4% and 17.1%. Compared to his career ratio, which is 16.3%, 17.6% each, it does not look too bad. However, he has never been aggressive this much ever before throughout his career.
It is generally known that whiff rate and K rate are strongly correlated, which gives us a clue that his current 17% K rate would increase sooner than later based on his career-high whiff rate. If you dig into his whiff rate deeper, it does not look any better.
He whiffs nearly double against fastball and slider. It may be the reason his declined batting average against the fastball. Although objective numbers are not too bad, it is a bit of surprise given his stupendous plate discipline for years.
Furthermore, as you can see above, his contact rate is reduced while his swing rate has noticeably increased. It is expected that his K rate would go higher based on increased whiff rate.
It is perhaps because of his recent swing change. The most important thing is that it does not mean he’s declining. He could adjust himself to be a different hitter to compete with younger generations for the rest of his career.
However, it is not Votto who we loved to see because of his uncomparable plate discipline. The most logical speculation is that he seems to be willing to sacrifice his plate discipline for more power. He is abnormally chasing pitchers compared to his previous season while not making enough contacts at all.
The Cincinnati Reds and Joey Votto might be preparing themselves for the next stage of his career. We have seen many veteran hitters who sacrificed batting average for more power in their later years. Votto seems to be one of them. We will have to wait and see if 2019 will be a bad year for Joey Votto.