After Tuesday’s home opener against the Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox ace Chris Sale said that he didn’t think he’s ever pitched this bad before. We checked, and he’s right.
This offseason, the Boston Red Sox rewarded their ace Chris Sale with a lucrative extension after leading the team to their fourth World Series since 2004. Their expectations were that Sale would continue his dominance over the American League and, perhaps, lead the Sox to the postseason for the fourth consecutive season, something the team has never done.
Instead, after 3 starts, Sale features an 0-3 record with a 9.00 ERA, 7.23 FIP, 1.54 WHIP, and -0.3 fWAR. By comparison, last season, Chris Sale featured just 4 losses in the entire season.
Tuesday’s home opener against the Toronto Blue Jays may have been rock bottom. While not the worst start of his 3 GS this season, it featured a rare sight in Boston, the Fenway faithful booing him after Lourdes Gurriel Jr. stole home.
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In the end, Sale went 4 IP while allowing 7 H, and allowing 5 R. This performance prompted Sale to shoulder the blame for his team’s performance, saying, “I don’t know if I’ve ever pitched like this in my life.”
He’s right… I checked.
While Sale has had a worse WHIP over a 3-game stretch several times in his career and he’s lost more consecutive games in a single season before, never has he featured a combined stat sheet as atrocious as his current one before.
There is a reason for that too. First, there’s Sale’s unusually low fastball velocity. Since becoming a starting pitcher in 2012, Sale averaged 94.7 MPH on his fastball, his career-high is 95.7 MPH. This season, his average fastball velocity is 91.6, down 4 MPH from last year.
This has resulted in Sale using his fastball significantly less. On top of that, he has also slightly increased his use of the slider, substantially increased the use of the changeup completely, and essentially abandoned his sinker.
In other words, Sale is less deceptive, more predictable, and imminently hittable.
Speaking of hittable, another reason for Sale’s struggles lies in his inability to miss bats. In fact, his Whiff Rate on his fastball this season is a career-low 1.32%. By comparison, last season he featured a career-high 15.5% Whiff Rate.
What’s more, batters are more aggressive against Sale and swinging at pretty much everything. His SwStr% (10.5) is the lowest since 2012, tied for a career-low. This has resulted in a career-high wOBA against (.399).
Don’t worry too much, Red Sox fans. Chris Sale isn’t this bad. Over the span of 30 GS (fingers crossed), there will be a course correction.
It’s not all good either, Sale, 30, has never experienced this type of performance before and we could be witnessing the decline of one of baseball’s best pitchers.