Four years into an 8 year, $184 million dollar contract, Jason Heyward may finally be showing signs of improvement, which would excite Chicago Cubs fans.
It hasn’t been a great start to the 2019 season for the Chicago Cubs who are currently sitting in last place with the Cincinnati Reds at 3-8. Fans likely envisioned a better start after losing the division, getting bounced from the playoffs, and then doing basically nothing to improve over the off season.
There hasn’t been a ton of positives so far. However, Jason Heyward might be showing signs of life after an underwhelming start to his Cubs tenure. Heyward had produced like a star for the rival St. Louis Cardinals in his walk year, tallying a 5.6 fWAR which led to him signing an 8 year, $184M contract in 2015 with Chicago.
Since then, Heyward has only produced 4.0 fWAR over three full seasons with the Chicago Cubs, which has disappointed the masses. While things haven’t been great, Heyward may finally be making adjustments that will help him realize his potential.
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Before we go any further, the obvious caveat is that it is still early in the season and most statistics haven’t reached the point of stabilization. There are positive signs for Heyward but we will need more ABs to see if the adjustments hold.
One thing to understand is that Heyward has never been an elite hitter. Even in the year he posted over 5 WAR, his wRC+ was 121 both times, still above average but not elite.
He has only hit more than 20 bombs once and that was back in 2012. Nevertheless, there are a variety of ways a player can be a valuable hitter and Heyward may be getting back to that.
Through a minuscule 42 plate appearances, Heyward has a 188 wRC+ and 4 home runs to his name, including a tank that went dead center against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
So how is this Jason Heyward different? We can start with his batted ball profile.
Heyward has always been a ground ball hitter with a career rate of 48.9%. Mix that with a 42.4% pull rate and that is a recipe for a ton of 4-3s and 3 unassisteds.
This year though Heyward is doing something different by trading some of his grounders for fly balls. Currently, he is hitting ~47% of his balls in the air and dropped his ground ball rate by 10 points.
Also, he is starting to work more in the middle of the field with a Cent% of 46.9% up big from his career 34.6%. Statcast backs up the batted ball profile so far as Heyward is sporting an average launch angle of 18.9°, compared to a career average of 8.9°.
In addition to the positives above, Heyward has cut down his infield fly ball percentage from 18.5% to more in line with career norms 13%. Overall, Heyward’s batted ball profile is shifting to make teams work harder on defense to get him out.
There is another encouraging part about Jason Heyward’s start to the year as well. Optimal launch angles don’t matter if you don’t hit the ball hard. Heyward so far has an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph, the first time in his career he has averaged over 90 mph.
His biggest gains in exit velocity have come when he pulls the ball and goes in the middle of the field. While they are admittedly small samples, compare those two numbers to his combined 2017/18 exit velo and pull/middle numbers.
Key in on that Heyward is now hitting his hardest balls to center field at 96 mph and pair that with the majority of his hits going to the same place. Pitchers throw their best pitches at the highest rate and now Heyward is doing the same thing with his bat.
The best way to exploit Heyward’s possible gains is to pitch him inside. He has struggled with pitches inside, averaging a weak 80 mph (click here and click his EV numbers).
At 6’5″, his long levers make it difficult to attack those pitches. We cant definitively say whether Heyward is going to return to being an above average hitter but he’s still only 29 and early signs provide optimism.
While the Chicago Cubs might not have made any flashing signings this off season, the good version of Jason Heyward would be an acquisition of its own. The Cubs have their work cut out for them as they have to chase the Cardinals and the Brewers.
If Jason Heyward can hold these improvements and play like a 4 win player instead of the 1-2 win player he has been, that helps move the needle for the Cubs. After what we saw last year, every single win counts and Heyward providing more of them would be a boon for the Chicago Cubs.