MLB: The Five Pitchers on the Brink of a Breakout in 2019

#5 Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber originally came up in 2018 with a relative degree of success, eleven victories, and a 4.55 ERA. However, his FIP was a mere 3.23 and his BABIP was .356. This would seem to indicate that he was the recipient of some faulty luck in his initial MLB season.

FIP, or fielding independent pitching, just examines strikeouts, walks, and home runs to better gauge how a pitcher is performing without the assistance or hindrance of his defense. 3.20 is considered to be an excellent mark for FIP, therefore the underlying numbers would indicate there is more to the story than just his ERA.

Then, one may ask how he received such an elevated ERA with other impressive numbers?

The easy answer is luck. The batting average on balls in play was an exorbitant .356, which when combined with his FIP would indicate that luck was indeed involved. Such a BABIP is unsustainable and as that falls so will his ERA, WHIP, and FIP.

Over 114 IP at the MLB level, Bieber had a minuscule walk rate of 4.7% and he amassed a total of 5.13 strikeouts per walk. As a pitcher such as Bieber learns at the MLB level he will develop tactics for strikeouts, it is part of the growing process. He was practically dominant over the last two months of 2018, two or three rough starts aside.

Here one can see that he focuses around the four-seam fastball, which can get past bats in the 93-94 mph range, but is not what some may offer. Therefore, he must incorporate his other pitches too.

His slider is the pitch he uses most frequently after the fastball. It has the capability of being utilized as a strikeout pitch, falling down and away from right-handed batters and low and into lefties. Finally, his signature strikeout pitch is his wicked curveball, which has a devastating break that is enough to cause many a batter to give up.

The slider has a chase rate, or percentage of times a batter chased this pitch out of the zone, of 52.9%, while his curveball had a 40.6% rate of the same statistic. Those are both bonafide strikeout pitches that may even be built upon in 2019. However, he must find a way to mix in his fastball and do so more effectively, as it does not miss bats nearly as often.

His arsenal highlights exactly why his underlying numbers are what they are. The combination of the two make for high hopes and lofty possibilities in 2019.