Over the course of a season, analytics will win games. However, numbers don’t have feelings and the most recent start by Yankees LHP CC Sabathia is the latest evidence of that.
New York Yankees veteran CC Sabathia held the Chicago White Sox to one hit through 5 innings yesterday, having only thrown 62 pitches including 42 strikes. After being told that he wouldn’t be coming out for the 6th inning, Sabathia had a puzzled look on his face, and frankly so did I.
You see, at that point in the game, Sabathia was generating weak contract, his signature attribute as an older pitcher, and was 13-pitches below the limit (75) that had been set for him prior to the game. To put this into context, 62 pitches thrown divided by 5 IP equals 12.4 pitches thrown per inning.
Sabathia had enough in the predetermined tank to go one more if needed.
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It’s absurd that Sabathia wasn’t let out for the 6th inning, especially considering that the first two batters he would face were the 8 and 9 hitters in the ChiSox lineup. The 8th hitter, Yolmer Sánchez is currently hitting 0.94 on the season while the 9-hitter, Adam Engel has a career BA of .205.
The fact of the matter is that the reason Sabathia was removed from this game is that the Yankees, like many organizations, are married to their analytics department. Unfortunately, for Sabathia, the script which written like a television drama that unfolds daily, called for him to be removed at this point in the game for one reason or another.
We’ve heard the reasons before. Reasons like: he can’t pitch to a lineup the 3rd time around.
Analytically, it’s true. Sabathia’s numbers against a lineup the 3rd time around in a game are atrocious. Here are CC’s numbers in 2018, per River Ave Blues:
"First Time Thru Lineup: .248/.314/.340 (89 OPS+)Second Time Thru Lineup: .208/.294/.376 (84 OPS+)Third Time Thru Lineup: .328/.376/.547 (135 OPS+)"
However, was there any indication in yesterday’s game that he was having any trouble working through the White Sox lineup? Prior to being removed, he had retired six in a row including Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez, the top two hitters on White Sox.
Sabathia was cruising. The simple use of one’s judgment would tell you that CC Sabathia was fine to go out for the 6th, at the very least on a hitter-to-hitter basis.
If the New York Yankees want to avoid missing the World Series for the first decade since the 1910s, they’re going to have to learn how to intermingle data with humanity. Until then, successful seasons will continue to result in early exits in the postseason.