Milwaukee Brewers are up to something with their spin rate

The Milwaukee Brewers have found a way to increase their spin rates.

The other day, I wrote about how Madison Bumgarner was looking like a completely different pitcher this year on account of the increased spin rates on his fastball and breaking balls. To do that research, I went into Statcast and looked at fastball spin rates for 2018 compared to 2019, then found the difference between those years.

I also did the same thing for 2018 and 2019 breaking balls. Madison Bumgarner was at the top of the list for fastballs and third on the list for breaking balls. I thought Bumgarner was interesting because he’s been a rumored trade candidate but I also took notice at the top of the list.

Corbin Burnes was second on the fastball list for improvement and first on the list for breaking ball improvement and his incredible spin rates (and homer problems) have been well documented so far. As I continued down the list, I started to notice that the list was dominated by Milwaukee Brewers. Consider the list below of fastball spin rate improvements by Brewers pitchers. Of the 38 players with a spin rate increase of 99 or more, the Brewers have 5 guys on this list. The Reds were in 2nd place with three, and there were a whole slew of teams with one or two pitchers. This doesn’t seem random or accidental.

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So what does all of this mean? Does it mean anything at all? Driveline baseball researched spin rates in 2016 and found that increasing spin “isn’t something you can necessarily do”, so how have the Brewers’ done this and has it been intentional?

Let’s start at the top with Milwaukee Brewers President of Baseball Operations, David Stearns. He assumed the top job in Milwaukee in 2015, after being the assistant GM to Jeff Lunhow in Houston. The Astros have long been obsessed with high spin rate pitchers, religiously drafting and acquiring these guys.  Stearns was a part of this and took that knowledge to Houston. That particular Driveline study was 2.5 years ago, it is possible now that Stearns and his team have figured out how to increase spin rates in a way that was not previously known, whether through a training program, grip manipulation, or something else.

While it is still early in the 2019 season and statistics still need time to approach stabilization and reliability, the Brewers’ pitching staff is currently throwing fastballs a league-leading 60% of the time while teams are throwing their fastballs less than ever. Last season, the Brewers were tied for seventh in the league with a 58% fastball rate.  While 2% is hardly a difference statistically, it does translate to a large number of pitches thrown over the course of a game and season.

But the Brewers are bucking a trend from other forward leaning teams that are reducing their rate of fastballs thrown. Using the same leader board, the Yankees and Dodgers are 9/10 in fastball rate at 54.9%, the Rays are 18th at 53.3%, and Stearns’ former team, the Astro,s find themselves at 29th throwing fastballs an incredibly low 44.4% of the time. The direction of the Brewers to throw more fastball aligns with increases in fastball spin rate for their pitchers. Could be some noise, but there appears to be some type of signal in there.

Maybe there is nothing here at all and everything I just wrote is circumstantial and moot. Maybe the Brewers need to get someone to look into their system because their gun is running hot. For a team so dependent on metrics, I find it hard to believe their system wouldn’t be properly calibrated.

The Brewers seem to have figured out a way to increase spin rates on fastballs. They are using their fastballs more and are in the complete opposite direction than the Astros, who are throwing fewer fastballs than ever.

It will be interesting to watch the Milwaukee Brewers pitch the rest of the year and see if they continue to pump the zone with high spin fastballs. It is also worth monitoring the type of pitchers they produce from their minor league ranks and acquire in trades, big or small.  The Brewers are up to something and whether it is big or small, has yet to be determined.