The New York Mets swung a deal for J.D. Davis this past off-season as a depth piece. With the amount of playing time he’s gotten, there’s a chance they may have a steal on their hands
The New York Mets and Houston Astros cooked up a deal this past off-season sending J.D. Davis to New York as a part of new GM Brodie Van Wagenen’s plan to add more depth to the roster in case of injury. Those injuries happened as Todd Frazier and Jed Lowrie have yet to make their 2019 debuts with the club.
Going into last night’s action, the 25-year old Davis was hitting .242 with a .860 OPS. While he isn’t playing every day, he’s making the most of the at-bats he is getting.
Against lefties, he’s hitting .333 with an OPS of 1.500 in 16 plate appearances. Obviously, an extremely small sample size.
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There is a chance though, that even with the bit of success he’s had on the young season, he actually should be doing better than he has thus far.
Per Statcast, Davis is tied for ninth in average exit velocity with Hunter Renfroe and Cody Bellinger at 95.2. He’s tied for eighth in hard-hit percentage at 60%. He’s tied for 15th in barrel percentage at 12.5%.
Based off of that data, you can make the case he’s been pretty unlucky this season. His expected batting average should be .351 which is a difference of 109 points which is sixth highest in the sport thus far.
He’s slugging .485, but his xSLG should be .633. His current slugging % is .485 and that 148 point difference is 18th in baseball. There’s a 91 point difference in his XWOBA vs his current WOBA which is the 16th biggest difference in baseball.
The more chances the New York Mets give J.D. Davis, the better chance there is of some regression in those differences, which means that it gives the offense another right-handed power source.
Usually, when you make a deal with the Houston Astros, a team that understands and uses analytics better than anyone there is some question. However, it is possible the New York Mets may end up with quite the useful right-handed bat in 2019 and beyond.