NL East crown: Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
While the Phillies faithful bemoan pitching difficulties, the Fightins are currently 9-6 and 1.5 games ahead of the Washington Nationals, who are again the consensus pick to top the National League East according to four national publications.
On-paper favorite:
Despite the offseason roster upgrades of the Philadelphia Phillies by general manager Matt Klentak, many fans treat committing an additional $488 million too lightly. Translation: next! In hindsight, though, having four aces in 2011 was one-and-done.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window.” – Peter Drucker
The Nationals were basically at .500 for the entire 162 with an 82-80 finish. But although the red pinstripes had surprised the NL East for the first four months, they won only one third of their remaining 51 games and dropped behind the Nats in the standings.
Changewise, Washington had added starters Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez plus second sacker Brian Dozier but did not re-up Bryce Harper. Besides the right fielder, the Phils also signed Andrew McCutchen for left field. As for other major acquisitions, Klentak picked up J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura and David Robertson.
Concerning relief-corps situations, the Nationals inked Trevor Rosenthal for a setup role, but he isn’t working out so far. And their bullpen is 15th in the NL to the red pinstripes’ seventh. However, only the top eight NL pens are under a 4.61 ERA.
From a financial standpoint, the competitive-balance threshold for AAV (average annual value) is $206 million, and both organizations are under it: the Fightins by $12.7 million and the Nats by $3.8 million. But Washington must defer some money because of their television revenue dispute with the Baltimore Orioles.
Regarding intangibles, having the relief corps turn a six-run advantage into a loss can affect the starters and everyday eight. On the other hand, an offense making a long-shot comeback can propel a club on a winning streak.
According to preseason forecasts, the NL East will be a four-team race, but those victory totals are changing already after only a dozen contests or so. And, for the most part, Washington is still the favorite in the early going.
Then and now:
In 2018, the Phillies had scoring and fielding difficulties, but they still had recorded 15 triumphs more than losses before falling below .500 and finishing in third place. On the other hand, the collapse had 17 defeats more than victories. Opposites!
As for the Nationals, they appeared to be a .500 team by going 48-48 before the break and 34-32 after it. But they had their highs and lows regarding .500: 11 games over and five under were both in the first half.
In head-to-head battles, the Fightins were 6-4 over the Nats before the four-day vacation: 3-1 at home and 3-3 in Washington. However, the hometown nine faltered to a 2-7 mark during the collapse: 1-5 at the Bank and 1-2 at Nationals Park.
Before Harper signed with the Phils, the Nats had inked Corbin (11-7, 3.15 ERA) and Sanchez (7-6, 2.83 ERA) for their five-man staff. Basically, the idea is to prevent runs because they expect a drop in offense even with Gomes’ addition. Of course, they still can score enough runs to contend especially if Dozier bounces back.
Even though Harper’s bat draws the most attention, Klentak also had right field defense in mind. Plus the exec added gloves behind the plate, at shortstop, and in left field as well: Realmuto, Segura and McCutchen respectively. Meanwhile, those four and Rhys Hoskins fill the first five slots on the lineup card.
Other than Robertson in the pen, Klentak traded for southpaws Jose Alvarez and James Pazos plus Juan Nicasio. Based on his swaps, the decision-maker wanted a third stud at the back of the bullpen, two portsiders competing for a lefty-reliever spot, and the hope Nicasio could bounce back.
Pluses and limits:
When camp began, the Phillies knew the batting order was their main strength and felt they had three extra relievers after not moving two setup men over the winter. Plus the rotation’s competition of four hurlers for three slots appeared to be the plan until July: They could then deal for a rotation lefty. A temporary fix?
Regarding Washington, their five-man staff is strong, and they have enough offense to be competitive. But their relief corps other than closer Doolittle is a glaring weakness, and Rosenthal and Sipp aren’t plugging their eighth-inning hole.
So far, the red pinstripes have split two contests in Washington and lost two of three in Philly against the Nationals. And even though the Nats scored 19 of the last 20 runs beginning in the 10th frame on April 9, they plated 39 total to 27 for the Fightins.
Financially, Washington still has a dispute with Baltimore over television revenue with MASN, and this withheld resource has forced the NL franchise to defer large contractual percentages: Max Scherzer‘s pact has 50 percent delayed. Plus Harper’s offer reportedly had one third deferred.
As for the Phils, they are at $191.3 million AAV with a Luxury Tax threshold of $206 million, but they want to eventually extend Realmuto and Hoskins. And they’ll need dollars for a rotation southpaw in July if they plan to go deep in the postseason. Therefore, management won’t be adding millions in April.
On the other hand, fans of Washington, the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets to name a few want the top-tier free agents still available: a closer and/or a starter. No, those clubs won’t be panicking and spending millions either because of difficulties with their starting staff and/or a late-inning arm.
Call on paper:
Entering the season, four national publications predicted the Phillies for third place in the NL East behind the Nationals and the Mets with 86.5 victories average, a high of 88 wins and 85 as a low. And those forecasts placed the Fightins 1.5 wins behind the Nats and 0.5 victories behind the Metropolitans.
Original victory predictions from four national sources:
- Nationals: 90, 86, 89 and 87 for an average of 88.
- Mets: 87, 86, 88 and 85 for an average of 87.
- Phillies: 87, 86, 88 and 85 for an average of 86.5.
- Braves: 83, 82, 84 and 79 for an average of 82.
As for the favored Nationals, the above foretelling had them pegged for an average of 88 triumphs with a high of 90 wins and a low of 86. So, they would finish with one victory more than the Mets and 1.5 more than the red pinstripes.
Current victory predictions from four national sources (April 15):
- Nationals: 89, 88, 89 and 87 for an average of 88.3.
- Mets: 87, 89, 88 and 87 for an average of 87.8.
- Phillies: 87, 90, 88 and 85 for an average of 87.5.
- Braves: 85, 86, 86 and 79 for an average of 84.
To sum up, Washington again is the easy pick for the divisional crown, but one classification does not belong to the Nats. No, the Phils and the Metropolitans are battling for first place in what category? Expectations!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
New Phillies plate discipline for 2018:
- McCutchen: 21.3 K% and 13.9 BB% with a .368 OBP.
- Segura: 10.9 K% and 5.1 BB% with a .341 OBP.
- Harper: 24.3 K% and 18.7 BB% with a .393 OBP.
- Realmuto: 19.6 K% and 7.2 BB% with a .340 OBP.
Former Phillies plate discipline for 2018:
- Santana: 13.7 K% and 16.2 BB% with a .352 OBP.
- Alfaro: 28.9 K% and 2.6 BB% with a .324 OBP.
- Crawford: 26.8 K% and 9.4 BB% with a .341 OBP.
New Nationals plate discipline for 2018:
- Dozier: 20.4 K% and 11.1 BB% with a .305 OBP.
- Gomes: 27.4 K% and 4.8 BB% with a .313 OBP.
Former Nationals plate discipline for 2018:
- Harper: 24.3 K% and 18.7 BB% with a .393 OBP.
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
New Phillies statistics for 2018:
- McCutchen, 32.5: 155 Gms., 682 PA, a .255 Avg., a .368 OBP, a .424 SLG, a .169 ISO, a .304 BABIP, 20 HR, 65 RBI, a .792 OPS and a 2.6 fWAR.
- Segura, 29: 144 Gms., 632 PA, a .304 Avg., a .341 OBP, a .415 SLG, a .111 ISO, a .327 BABIP, 10 HR, 63 RBI, a .755 OPS and a 3.8 fWAR.
- Harper, 26.5: 159 Gms., 695 PA, a .249 Avg., a .393 OBP, a .496 SLG, a .247 ISO, a .289 BABIP, 34 HR, 100 RBI, an .889 OPS and a 3.5 fWAR.
- Realmuto, 28: 125 Gms., 531 PA, a .277 Avg., a .340 OBP, a .484 SLG, a .208 ISO, a .312 BABIP, 21 HR, 74 RBI, an .825 OPS and a 4.8 fWAR.
Former Phillies statistics for 2018:
- Santana, 33: 161 Gms., 679 PA, a .229 Avg., a .352 OBP, a .414 SLG, a .186 ISO, a .231 BABIP, 24 HR, 86 RBI, a .766 OPS and a 1.9 fWAR.
- Alfaro, 25.5: 106 Gms., 377 PA, a .262 Avg., a .324 OBP, a .407 SLG, a .145 ISO, a .406 BABIP, 10 HR, 37 RBI, a .731 OPS and a 3.1 fWAR.
- Crawford, 24: 49 Gms., 138 PA, a .214 Avg., a .319 OBP, a .393 SLG, a .179 ISO, a .286 BABIP, 3 HR, 12 RBI, a .712 OPS and a 0.3 fWAR.
New Nationals statistics for 2018:
- Dozier, almost 32: 151 Gms., 632 PA, a .215 Avg., a .305 OBP, a .391 SLG, a .175 ISO, a .240 BABIP, 21 HR, 72 RBI, a .696 OPS and a 0.8 fWAR.
- Gomes, 31.5: 112 Gms., 435 PA, a .266 Avg., a .313 OBP, a .449 SLG, a .184 ISO, a .336 BABIP, 16 HR, 48 RBI, a .762 OPS and a 2.5 fWAR.
Former Nationals statistics for 2018:
- Harper, 26.5: 159 Gms., 695 PA, a .249 Avg., a .393 OBP, a .496 SLG, a .247 ISO, a .289 BABIP, 34 HR, 100 RBI, an .889 OPS and a 3.5 fWAR.
New Phillies statistics for 2018:
- Robertson, 34: 69 Gms., 69 2/3 Inn., a 3.23 ERA, 5 Saves, 21 Holds, a 2.97 FIP, a 3.09 xFIP, a 2.88 SIERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 1.03 WHIP.
- Alvarez, almost 30: 76 Gms., 63 Inn., a 2.71 ERA, 14 Holds, a 3.05 FIP, a 3.98 xFIP, a 3.78 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.16 WHIP.
- Nicasio, 32.5: 46 Gms., 42 Inn., a 6.00 ERA, 19 Holds, a 2.99 FIP, a 3.18 xFIP, a 2.60 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.
- Pazos, almost 28: 60 Gms., 50 Inn., a 2.88 ERA, 19 Holds, a 3.60 FIP, a 4.15 xFIP, a 3.75 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.24 WHIP.
New Nationals statistics for 2018:
- Corbin, 29.5: 33 Gms., 200 Inn., 11-7, a 3.15 ERA, a 2.47 FIP, a 2.61 xFIP, a 2.91 SIERA, a 5.9 fWAR and a 1.05 WHIP.
- Sanchez, 35: 25 Gms. (1 relief), 136 2/3 Inn., 7-6, a 2.83 ERA, a 3.62 FIP, a 3.81 xFIP, a 3.85 SIERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 1.08 WHIP.
- Sipp, 35.5: 54 Gms., 38 2/3 Inn., a 1.86 ERA, 10 Holds, a 2.41 FIP, a 3.70 xFIP, a 3.28 SIERA, a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.03 WHIP.
- *2017 Rosenthal, almost 29: 50 Gms., 47 2/3 Inn., a 3.40 ERA, 11 Saves, 6 Holds, 2 BS, a 2.17 FIP, a 2.55 xFIP, a 2.60 SIERA, a 1.6 fWAR and a 1.20 WHIP (* T. John surgery).
Next. NL East crown: Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves. dark
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