While the Washington Nationals and Anthony Rendon have resumed extension talks, we imagine what type of contract the elite infielder should get.
It has been reported that the Washington Nationals and Anthony Rendon have resumed extension negotiations. The negotiations had previously been tabled after Rendon and super-agent Scott Boras did not find the Nats series of offers to be acceptable.
Rendon, a free agent at season’s end, is off to a meteoric start with a triple slash line of .397/.463/.845, good for an insane 222 wRC+ and 1.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Many people predicted Rendon could have an MVP type season and that this could be the year he finally gets the notoriety. Especially, with Bryce Harper leaving town.
So far, that has been the case but what would be a fair value extension for Rendon?
First, we need to look at what Rendon has done in his career. When you talk about the best players in baseball, Anthony Rendon rarely comes up. However, he should be in the conversation.
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Since making his debut in 2013, Rendon has been worth 27.0 WAR, combining above average offense with excellent defense, primarily at 3B. That WAR total is good for 15th in baseball over that six-year stretch.
The irony, you ask? If you look at the leader board you can see Rendon is tied with his former teammate Bryce Harper, who just signed for $330M. While Bryce is younger and has a higher upside as evidenced by his MVP season in 2015, Rendon has been the more consistent player.
Rendon has 3 separate seasons with at least six WAR while Harper only has one, the referenced MVP season.
While Scott Boras rarely advises his clients to sign extensions, there is the Boras-Lerner connection and the precedent of the Stephen Strasburg extension. Like Rendon, Strasburg was an elite Boras client who decided to forgo free agency in order to lock in a fair extension then.
Nolan Arenado comes to mind as another comparable situation. Arenado also debuted in 2013 and is an elite 3B in his own right, however Rendon has been better than Arenado by WAR (27.0 to 25.4).
Arenado signed a massive 7 year, $234M contract extension, which Boras will likely bring up to the Washington Nationals brass. Teams certainly factor in age to discussions like this, but Rendon is only 10 months older than Arenado. Using Fangraph’s Contract estimation tool, I looked at what the market value Rendon could expect to command using an $8M per WAR valuation, assuming he ages normally and it gave me this.
Anthony Rendon’s Contract Estimate — 7 yr / $322.6 M
| Year | Age | WAR | $/WAR | Est. Contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 29 | 6.2 | $8.0 M | $49.6 M |
| 2019 | 30 | 6.2 | $8.4 M | $52.1 M |
| 2020 | 31 | 5.7 | $8.8 M | $50.3 M |
| 2021 | 32 | 5.2 | $9.3 M | $48.2 M |
| 2022 | 33 | 4.7 | $9.7 M | $45.7 M |
| 2023 | 34 | 4.2 | $9.7 M | $40.8 M |
| 2024 | 35 | 3.7 | $9.7 M | $36.0 M |
| Totals | 35.9 | $322.6 M |
Assumptions
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflation (for first 5 years)
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-24), 0 WAR/yr (25-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)
Basically, Rendon would be worth as much as Harper because he has been every bit as valuable, however, he is selling fewer premium years than Harper was since he hit free agency at 26. You also have to apply a discount because Rendon has the Washington Nationals as the only bidder for his services.
We have also seen a depressed market for free agent talent and many contenders currently have a star 3B already locked up, so we should apply an additional discount. Tack on the fact that Rendon has dealt with nagging injuries and has played 150 games only twice in his career, that may be something else to consider. Using the same tool and tweaking assumptions, we get something that might be more realistic for both sides.
Anthony Rendon’s Contract Estimate — 7 yr / $221.6 M
| Year | Age | WAR | $/WAR | Est. Contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 29 | 6.2 | $6.5 M | $40.3 M |
| 2019 | 30 | 6.0 | $6.8 M | $40.6 M |
| 2020 | 31 | 5.2 | $7.2 M | $37.3 M |
| 2021 | 32 | 4.5 | $7.5 M | $33.5 M |
| 2022 | 33 | 3.7 | $7.9 M | $29.2 M |
| 2023 | 34 | 3.0 | $7.9 M | $23.3 M |
| 2024 | 35 | 2.2 | $7.9 M | $17.4 M |
| Totals | 30.6 | $221.6 M |
Assumptions
Value: $6.5M/WAR with 5.0% inflation (for first 5 years)
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-24), -0.25 WAR/yr (25-30),-0.75 WAR/yr (31-37),-1 WAR/yr (> 37)
Whether that works for both sides is a question we will find out in the coming days or weeks. Rendon has been a supremely valuable baseball player and should be compensated as such. He has been better than Arenado and is a top 15 player in baseball.
Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have shown the willingness to spend on their stars and Boras clients over the past several years. If Rendon/Boras wants to beat the Arenado deal, they might be able to top the number but throw in deferred money that the Nats have popularized in their contracts.
The business of baseball never stops. After a chilly free agent market and teams valuing players the same way, Rendon seems inclined to get his guarantee now.