Three Dreadful Facts About the 2019 Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are having their worst start to a season since 1996. Here are three facts to support why the team is struggling so bad.
Typically, when a team struggles so badly out of the gate, their fanbase tends to find a scapegoat. Someone to blame for all the team’s woes and misfortunes. Unfortunately, for the Boston Red Sox, in the words of Chris Sale, the entire team just “flat out stinks” right now.
To begin, let’s put the team’s record in context a little bit. At 6-13, this is the worst start to a season for the Red Sox since 1996. That season, the Sox started off 4-15
In all of 2018, never did the Sox have a stretch as bad as the one they currently are currently in. And even though there are plenty of games yet to be played, at 7-games below .500, the Sox are putting themselves in a hole that may soon be to steep to climb out of.
Most baseball fans can agree that a playoff team needs to win at least 90 games in the regular season. To achieve this, the Sox will have to go 84-59 for the remainder of the 2019 season. That’s a W-L% of .587.
In the AL East, even that may not even be enough. Just ask the 2018 Tampa Bay Rays.
Fact: Team On Pace to Surrender Over 1000 Runs in 2019
Perhaps the most troubling fact about this atrocious start to the season for the Boston Red Sox is that the team has already surrendered 119 runs. Conversely, in all of 2018, the Red Sox surrendered 647.
This means that in 19 games this season, or 12% of the season, the team has surrendered over 18% of the total runs given up by the 2018 team as a whole. Extrapolate this fact, and the Red Sox are on pace to surrender over 1000 runs this season.
What’s more, the team’s run-differential is currently an MLB-worst -42.
In order to better understand why the team is surrendering so many runs, you have to take a closer look at the teams pitching staff.
Now, entering the season, upon losing Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel, there were many questions about the team’s bullpen. In delving deeper into the stats, however, you’ll notice the team’s pen really hasn’t really been the problem…yet.
Instead, it’s the starting rotation that’s been the head scratcher for this team. A starting rotation that features the likes of Chris Sale, who in 4 GS has already matched his loss total (4) from all of 2018.
In 2019, the Boston Red Sox (-0.1 fWAR, 6.01 ERA) rotation is akin to that of the worst team in baseball, the Baltimore Orioles (-1.3 fWAR, 6.05 ERA). In fact, not only do both rotations feature negative fWARs, their ERA is virtually identical.
You can’t blame it all on pitching, however. You see, the beauty of run-differential is that it takes two to tango, and if you find your self in the negatives, it also means that your offense isn’t scoring enough runs either.
Fact: Team On Pace to Surrender Over 1000 Runs in 2019
In calculating a -42 rDiff for the Boston Red Sox, you not only take in to account the 119 Rs surrendered by the team’s pitching, but you also account for the 77 Rs scored by the offense. At just 77 Rs scored, that ranks the Red Sox offense 20th in MLB and 11th (out of 15) in the AL.
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I have a saying, which I like to believe is original, but who really knows. It goes: RUNS EQUALS WINS.
A team cannot win games if they struggle to score runs, and in 2019, the Red Sox are averaging 4 Rs per game. This also explains the atrocious 6-13 record.
One of the main culprits for the teams offensive woes, Mookie Betts is struggling this season. Through the team’s first 19 games, he already has 15 Ks. It took him 32 games to accomplish this last season.
Mookie has also only scored 13 of the teams 77 Rs while amassing just 14 Hits this season. By comparison, last season Betts scored 13 Rs and compiled 14 Hs within the team’s first 10 games.
It’s not all Betts’ fault, however. At a 0.5 fWAR, the Red Sox offense currently ranks 23rd in MLB. This is a result of an inability to get on-base (.300) and hit for power (.292 wOBA). In the end, the team struggles to create runs (80 wRC+), thereby losing more games than they can win.
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In the end, nobody expected the 2019 Boston Red Sox to mimic the performance of the once-in-a-lifetime team that was the 2018 Red Sox. However, the fall from grace has been a far one in a short time-span, and the team may soon have to start wondering if they’re still good enough.