The San Diego Padres team looking to make noise, and while Franmil Reyes’ surface numbers aren’t that great there’s plenty of reason for excitement
As of this writing, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers are nearly tied with each other for the NL West lead.
The Dodgers should not be a surprise to anyone as they have represented the NL in the World Series the past two seasons. The Padres meanwhile made a huge off-season splash of signing Manny Machado but were thought to be a few years away from being competitive.
The Padres also promoted Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack and eschewed the usual service time manipulations in order to be competitive. Both rookies have been excellent and others like Machado, Eric Hosmer, and Wil Myers are getting credit for the Padres’ hot start.
The San Diego Padres are going to need contributions from everywhere in order to take the Throne from the Dodgers, and Franmil Reyes could be the X-factor. While Reyes’ surface numbers don’t look great, he is doing some impressive things with the bat that could yield big numbers for a Padres team that needs value everywhere they can get it.
Reyes is a 23-year-old RF who in 2018 put up 1.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in approximately 300 plate appearances. Reyes swatted 16 dingers in half a season worth of ABs, displaying the same tantalizing power he did in the minors.
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This season, many were interested to see how Reyes would follow up his 2018 debut, with some thinking big numbers would be in store. So far, he has triple-slashed .209/.276/.507 good for a 101 wRC+. The power has been as advertised and is carrying Reyes albeit to a WAR -0.1 since he doesn’t add much on defense. Reyes 2019 is off to a disappointing start but while the surface level numbers aren’t much, there are some exciting indicators.
Starting with Reyes’ Statcast profile, there are a number of things that stick out. Starting with average exit velocity (aEV), Reyes is hitting the crap out of the ball with an aEV of 95.2 MPH which is in the top 2% for the entire league. He also increased his launch angle to a more efficient 14.6°up from 6.8 last year.
If you look at all hitters with at least 70 plate appearances, Reyes currently ranks 6th in hard hit rate at 57.7%, Christian Yelich and Joey Gallo are ahead of him which is great company to be in. Looking at other expected statistics like expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging (xSL) that incorporate exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint speed, Reyes again ranks in the 95th percentile in the league.
Unfortunately for Reyes, he is getting crushed by a .174 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) which is holding his production back. Just how bad is it right now? Taking wOBA – xWOBA which measures the difference between actual results and expected results, Reyes ranks 395th of 401 with a .121 point difference. While part of Reyes’ BABIP struggles can be attributed to hitting fly balls, some of this is pure bad luck.
Another encouraging sign has been improved plate discipline. Reyes has decreased his strikeout rate from 28.1% to 22.4% while maintaining his walk rate. Interestingly, Reyes is swinging more often than before, swinging 54% of the time up from 46% let year. Numbers like this are still somewhat in flux but Reyes making elite contact rather than striking out is a good thing.
Making more contact obviously hasn’t caused him to sacrifice his power as he is hitting the ball harder than ever. In fact, Reyes has increased his Fly Ball% 15 points to 46%. Reyes has changed his swing to optimize his batted ball mix. By hitting a majority of his balls in the air, Reyes is going to capitalize on his exit velocity. If you look at batted balls in the air, he has an aEV of 98.9 mph, putting him in elite company with sluggers like Yelich, Gallo, and Cody Bellinger.
Overall, this season has been a bit disappointing in terms of raw results for Reyes, looking under the hood though you can see plenty of reasons for optimism. Reyes is an elite ball striker and just has to keep hitting with authority and eventually he should have better luck as the season wears on.
Reyes is still only 23 and in his second year in the bigs so he could still learn to take more walks as he gets more ABs. The San Diego Padres know this and will keep trotting him out there waiting for the results to come. Every game in the NL West is going to count, Franmil Reyes and his boomstick could be the key to the Padres coming out on top.