How to Fix Chicago Cubs Starting Pitcher Yu Darvish

Yu Darvish has struggled since he signed with the Chicago Cubs. Darvish has been an Ace before so let’s figure out a way to fix him and make him better.

The Chicago Cubs beat the Cardinals in dramatic fashion yesterday getting an unlikely home run from the real-life Crash Davis.  Then, Javier Baez crushed a typical Javy Bomb that flew out of the park on a pitch that was at his letters and the Cubs wouldn’t look back as they beat the Cardinals 6-5.  The win was all around exciting and the Cubs got five scoreless innings from their Pen and contributions through the whole lineup.

Unfortunately, the starter on the day was Yu Darvish who gave up 5 runs over 4 innings and has continued to struggle mightily since signing a 6 year, $126M deal to anchor the Cubs rotation.  So far, Darvish has been worth a cumulative -0.1 WAR across 72 innings of the deal so far.

There are a number of concerns when it comes to Darvish’s pitching.  You can start with his 5.79 ERA and his 6.81 FIP, meaning he’s actually deserved to pitch worse if you can believe that.  His HR/FB rate has skyrocketed to 33% this year meaning every time a ball goes airborne there’s a good chance it is headed to the seats.

Another concern is Darvish’s command as his walk rate has ballooned to 17.8%.  In fact, his K-BB rate is down to 6.6% which is seventh worst in baseball.  There are still some effective pitchers with rates that low but Darvish finds himself with a pitch to contact guys like Brett Anderson and another $100M disappointment in Jordan Zimmerman.

More from Call to the Pen

• Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
• Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
• 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals

Darvish is 32 now and was consistently an elite pitcher with the Rangers and then the Dodgers in the second half and postseason.  That mixed with his contract means the Chicago Cubs will give him every chance to straighten himself out.  So the problem is Yu Darvish hasn’t pitched well and can be fixed?  Let’s try to find a solution to make Yu Darvish into an effective pitcher again.

Let’s start by looking at Darvish’s pitch mix.  He features a six-pitch mix but relies primarily on three different fastballs (4-seam, sinker, cutter) and a slider.  His velocity numbers have remained largely the same, however, Darvish has opted to throw more sliders and cutters instead of 4 seamers and sinkers.

Darvish continues to show elite spin on his fastball (2526 RPMs, 28th MLB) and above average spin on his slider (2724, 82nd).  Clearly, Darvish still has the raw stuff to be a successful pitcher and its a matter of execution.

So let’s take a look at where Darvish is throwing his pitches now verse where he did in 2017.  During his Cubs tenure, Darvish has focused almost exclusively on hammering down and away to right-handers with both his fastball and slider.

In 2017, he used his pitches a bit differently, still focusing on the bottom quadrant of the zone with his fastball but also throwing it up in the zone as well.  His slider use paired well with his fastball as he threw it up all throughout the zone.  This might not be the most efficient use of Darvish’s fastball velocity and spin rate as pitches with higher spin rates are more effective up in the zone.

In addition to throwing his pitches, another thing to look at is how is Darvish releasing his pitches.  Consider his 2017 release point on fastballs and compare that to his 2018/19.  Now do the same for his 2017 and 2018/19 breaking ball release points.  Comparing the clusters, you can see very clearly that Darvish has dropped his arm angle down on all his pitches since joining the Chicago Cubs.  Whether Darvish made this change intentionally or at the suggestion of Cubs, it hasn’t yielded great results as his walk rate and home run rates have increased.

Even though all the negatives, there are some encouraging things to in the current version of Darvish.  His exit velocity numbers against are right in line with his career numbers and he is allowing the lowest launch angle of his career.  T

his season, his launch angle is 6.3°, 6° lower than his career average.  This has resulted in Darvish running a career-high 53% GB rate which is top 10 in all of baseball.  Another encouraging sign is that Darvish is missing bats as his 13% swinging strike rate ranks 16th in baseball.

So based on everything we have looked at, there are two clear paths forward for fixing Darvish.  The first would be to raise his arm angle back up to where it used to be in 2017 and get back to throwing fastballs and throw those pitches up in the zone.

The other path could be simplifying his repertoire with a four-seam and slider at his new arm angle until he gets comfortable adding more pitches.  Ultimately, he needs to cut down on his walk and HR rates which is dragging down everything else preventing him from pitching deep into games and giving up tons of runs.

Pitchers are always adjusting trying to adjust as hitters adjust to them and a previously elite pitcher like Darvish is no different.  The good news is we have identified what is different from now and then and there is a path forward for him to get back to being the Yu Darvish the Chicago Cubs are paying for.