Phillies: Odd man out’s role in the rotation’s 2nd half

During the stretch drive, the Phillies will probably acquire a left-handed starter from potentially four candidates, but general manager Matt Klentak has in-house competition for the bottom three spots until the All-Star break.

Shock absorption:

If you’re expecting even the Philadelphia Phillies ace to avoid minimal campaign valleys, you will find disappointment. As for the other five hurlers, four are still competing for three slots regardless of their current MLB or MiLB level.

IN OTHER WORDS:  “Ups and downs in life are very important to keep us going, because a straight line even in an ECG means we are not alive” – Ratan Tata

While the faithful merely complain about a slumping offense and an imperfect relief corps, the rotation has them fingering their worry beads. Uneasiness: an annual ritual? However, signing Dallas Keuchel, 31, for multiple summers would come at the expense of four hopefuls who still qualify for every fifth day long-term.

The Phils are in win-now mode with chances for those who earned them in recent years. And, presently, even the other three starters involved will receive a quick hook like Nick Pivetta if they have a lack of good performances. Ergo, the front office has 488-million reasons, don’t they?

Regarding maturation, the Fightins have three pitchers besides Pivetta with roughly 2-3 seasons of development: Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff. But keep in mind, 60-90 starts are the learning curve in the major leagues before making an impact. Yes, even Cole Hamels was not an ace in year one.

On the other hand, having a solid game-calling catcher helps pitchers negotiate the opposing lineup. Additionally,  J.T. Realmuto‘s defense is also preventing additional damage by controlling the running game, framing pitches and limiting passed balls.

For the Phils, a sixth starter in mid-July will be important because of an innings limit for Eickhoff due to missing 2018. And even though Velasquez will work more frames, he most likely faded after a string of acceptable outings through Aug. 4 because of his workload. So, Pivetta is the obvious sixth man.

Barring unexpected problems, Klentak will be a July buyer and will have two paths to explore. One could be a temporary pickup for the stretch drive and postseason: a free agent at season’s end. However, the GM could deal for a pitcher who will be under team control for 2020 as well.

Through 2020:       

Even if the Phillies have a solid rotation, they could swap for southpaw Robbie Ray if the Arizona Diamondbacks are out of the race. Ray is in the second of three arbitration years before free agency and is earning $6.05 million. Expect a bidding war!

Currently, Ray is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA, and he’s had six decent performances out of seven for 85.7 percent (80 percent goal). He mostly employs a four-seam fastball (45.2 percent) and a slider (35.4 percent), plus a curveball and a sinker are the remaining 19.4 percent. Also, his heater averages 92.5 mph with a 95.2 mph high.

As for 2020’s five-man staff, the red pinstripes will need a lefty slotted before or after Jake Arrieta. And if Eflin, Velasquez, Eickhoff and Pivetta are still in the hunt, only two with the addition of Ray will make the rotation for ’20. Naturally, those two Phils could switch to the bullpen.

Possible mid-season acquisitions (through May 6):

Ray, 27.5:

• 2019: 7 Gms., 38 Inn., 2-1, a 3.79 ERA, a 0.6 fWAR and a 1.29 WHIP.
• 2018: 24 Gms., 123 2/3 Inn., 6-2, a 3.93 ERA, a 1.0 fWAR and a 1.35 WHIP.

Minor, 31:

• 2019: 7 Gms., 48 2/3 Inn., 3-2, a 2.40 ERA, a 1.3 fWAR and a 0.95 WHIP.
• 2018: 28 Gms., 157 Inn., 12-8, a 4.18 ERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 1.12 WHIP.

Portsider Mike Minor of the Texas Rangers is under contract for $19 million split evenly between 2019 and 2020. So, he would also require a slot for the ’20 squad, and a second Fightins’ starter would be another man out. Of course, Pivetta doesn’t currently have a spot: subject to change.

In his repertoire, Minor fires his four-seam fastball at a 42.9 percent clip, and the other 57.1 percent are his secondary pitches: a changeup, a slider and a curveball. His average heater is 93.1 mph and his high is 95.7 mph. As for effectiveness, he’s had six acceptable opportunities out of seven for 85.7 percent.

On the other hand, Klentak could opt for a temporary remedy with a rental: Madison Bumgarner or Hamels. But this direction will depend on the development of Eflin, Velasquez, Eickhoff and Pivetta. Nevertheless, if the exec can rely on three of the four for 2020, he can deal for a lefty fix through playoffs’ end.

Expectations:

To reiterate the Phillies situation, they have four moundsmen for the bottom three rungs of the rotation. Currently, Pivetta is with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, but the red pinstripes are considering him for a relief role. Or he could be a sixth starter in July.

Including writers, many locals are reluctant to accept late-inning matchups with three fireman who could close in their own right. In fact, David Robertson signed up for critical situations regardless of the frame. So, Klentak inked a free agent “hammer” to handle the toughest outs in the eighth or ninth inning.

Concerning an increase to payroll, Klentak will reevaluate his needs by June’s end, and his decision will depend on the effectiveness of Eflin, Velasquez, Eickhoff and Pivetta plus their role at that time. For the most part, though, the GM will probably need a rotation portsider, but will that arm be available and attainable?

Including money coming off the books after ’19, the Phils will earmark dollars for extensions to Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins. But even deep-pocketed franchises realize the competitive-balance tax deters unbridled spending, so they factor in a star’s prime years (27 to 32) into their offers. Yes, superstars are exceptions.

While many faithful supporters of the Fightins, New York Mets, Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals check out the NL East standings daily, which club would their total combined fan bases fear the most? In other words, which team could go on a prolonged winning streak? The Phillies!

The Numerical Bible:  

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Potential Phillies southpaw acquisitions toward 80 percent (through May 6):

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• Minor: 5 good, 1 so-so and 1 bad out of 7 total for 85.7%
• Ray: 3 good, 3 so-so and 1 bad out of 7 total for 85.7%
• Bumgarner: 3 good, 3 so-so and 1 bad out of 7 total for 85.7%
• Hamels: 4 good, 2 so-so and 1 bad out of 7 total for 85.7%
• This tally includes consideration for inherited runners scoring.
  Rule of thumb is 4 good and so-so outings out of every 5 or 80%.

Potential Phillies southpaw acquisitions (through May 6):

Ray, 27.5:

• 2019: 7 Gms., 38 Inn., 2-1, a 3.79 ERA, a 3.83 FIP, a 4.16 xFIP, a 4.35 SIERA, a 0.6 fWAR and a 1.29 WHIP.
• 2018: 24 Gms., 123 2/3 Inn., 6-2, a 3.93 ERA, a 4.31 FIP, a 3.77 xFIP, a 3.89 SIERA, a 1.0 fWAR and a 1.35 WHIP.

Minor, 31:

• 2019: 7 Gms., 48 2/3 Inn., 3-2, a 2.40 ERA, a 3.47 FIP, a 4.03 xFIP, a 4.27 SIERA, a 1.3 fWAR and a 0.95 WHIP.
• 2018: 28 Gms., 157 Inn., 12-8, a 4.18 ERA, a 4.43 FIP, a 4.53 xFIP, a 4.27 SIERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 1.12 WHIP.

Bumgarner, 29.5:

• 2019: 7 Gms., 43 2/3 Inn., 1-4, a 3.92 ERA, a 3.26 FIP, a 3.63 xFIP, a 3.70 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.10 WHIP.
• 2018: 21 Gms., 129 2/3 Inn., 6-7, a 3.26 ERA, a 3.99 FIP, a 4.32 xFIP, a 4.42 SIERA, a 1.4 fWAR and a 1.24 WHIP.

Hamels, 35:

• 2019: 7 Gms., 42 2/3 Inn., 3-0, a 3.38 ERA, a 3.66 FIP, a 3.67 xFIP, a 3.75 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.17 WHIP.
• 2018: 32 Gms., 190 2/3 Inn., 9-12, a 3.78 ERA, a 4.49 FIP, a 3.95 xFIP, a 3.99 SIERA, a 2.2 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.

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