Even if the statistics are not there, teams are still avoiding giving Toronto Blue Jays phenom Vladimir Guerrero Jr anything to feast on.
It is easy to look at the statistics for Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and think that he is disappointing. Heading into Wednesday, the top prospect in baseball had produced a meager .162/.244/.189 batting line, with just one extra base hit and has driven in one run. In his 41 plate appearances, Guerrero has drawn four walks, and struck out 11 times. Those are not the numbers of the type of player expected to change a franchise.
And yet, that may not have much to do with Guerrero’s ability to produce at the major league level. Quite simply, pitchers are working carefully to him, avoiding any possible mistakes.
In the last 3 seasons there have been 1516 batter seasons where the batter saw at least 150 pitches. Vlad Jr ranks 1516th for % pitches seen over the heart of the plate at 14.3% (23 of 161 after tonight) - the next lowest is 17.5%. (Stats before tonight: https://t.co/wqNnSZr5vv )
— James G (@james_in_to) May 7, 2019
It is understandable that pitchers would not want to be beaten by Guerrero. Despite his lack of production thus far in the majors, he has quite the minor league track record. The consensus top prospect in the game heading into 2019, Guerrero has a career .331/.413/.531 batting line with 44 homers and 71 doubles in 1261 plate appearances.
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Guerrero also has not exactly had a lot of protection in the lineup. Eric Sogard leads the Blue Jays with a 196 OPS+, a number that is thoroughly unsustainable. Justin Smoak is the only other player on the roster with an OPS+ over 110, while Randal Grichuk and Rowdy Tellez are the other players who have been above league average thus far.
Of course, Guerrero should see his own productivity improve on its own. He has a mere .231 batting average on balls in play, fueled in part by a 73.1% ground ball rate and a disappointing 11.5% line drive rate. As Guerrero begins to elevate the ball more, he should start tapping into his power.
While it is easy to panic about Guerrero’s slow start to his major league career, it is to be expected. Even the great phenoms can take time to adjust to the majors, and find their way to success. In this case, it is just a matter of being patient. And, finding him some protection in the lineup moving forward.
And, of course, maybe getting something to hit. Once that happens, the Toronto Blue Jays phenom should fulfill his potential