Joey Gallo may have had a unique accomplishment, but it is nothing to celebrate.
What do the names Frank Howard, Dave Kingman and Adam Dunn all have in common? Many MLB fans “in the know” might say, “Semi-bums, lousy hitters, they all had power.” Some empathetic folks might add, “Nice guys, I’m sure.” (Having met Howard, I would say that last remark is true for one of them.) But the amazing thing about 21st century baseball is that, in addition to many other changes, all of these names are now properly spelled J-o-e-y G-a-l-l-o, and pronounced JO-ey GAL-lo.
Of course, “semi-bums” is a bit harsh, and many younger fans might not even realize that, in the list above, the Frank Howard referred to isn’t the former White Sox star, but the old Senators slugger, who was actually the 1964 NL Rookie of the Year.
But the first name that will come to mind fifty years from now, when someone is challenged to name a lousy hitter with serious pop, is very likely to be Joey Gallo.
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The word has surely gotten around by now that May 8 Gallo became the first MLB player ever to collect 100 home runs before he had 100 singles. As David Hill noted, the previous low single total upon hitting 100 homers belonged to Russell Branyan at 172. Gallo had 93 singles when he launched a ball out of PNC Park in Pittsburgh (and very possibly into the Allegheny River). No one can deny his pop.
The Gallo Record in Discussion
Here’s the thing: While a lot of people have already written about this very striking record, a question remains. Is taking the record for 100 home runs versus fewest singles by 79 something to be proud of?
I put this question by text to a very knowledgeable MLB fan, simply laying out the facts: “Joey Gallo is MLB’s 1st ever player to have 100 HRs before he has 100 singles.” I didn’t even indicate that this broke Branyan’s record by 45.9%.
The response was: “E-W!!!!” (And yeah, yeah, I know – one person’s opinion – but this person is a physician, and thus, obviously understands numbers. He also happens to have an eidetic memory.)
I replied: “He’s in his 5th year.”
His response was: “That’s embarrassing.”
I asked “Is it anymore? Lifetime BA today = .210.”
The next suggestion was that Joey Gallo was “Harper-ish.” I replied that Harper was likely to look “like Ted Williams” in the long run relative to Gallo.
All the above is offered just in case somebody thinks MLB fans go easy on the players they discuss.
The Historical Comparison
“Well, look,” Rangers or Gallo fans might say, “there have always been these big bopper types – guys who swung like Babe Ruth, but weren’t quite at his level hand-eye-wise, and besides, maybe Gallo’s getting better. His current OPS is 1.106.”
That last figure was before play May 9, but whatever Gallo did that evening or the next won’t have wildly changed that figure. He’s off to a very decent start in terms of power.
What do his career number look like against the three players mentioned in paragraph one, however? Here are the career slash lines (in Gallo’s case, thus far, obviously):
Howard: .273/.352/.499
Kingman: .236/.302/.478
Dunn: .237/.364/.490
Gallo: .210/.328/.514
These players’ strikeout-to-walk ratios were as follows, in the order above – Howard first, Gallo last: 1.87 to 1; 2.99 to 1; 1.81 to 1; 2.65 to 1.
So, roughly speaking, all these guys struck out or strike out two to three times for every walk, which obviously explains the crummy batting averages (Howard notwithstanding, sort of) and less than impressive slugging marks.
And Gallo’s lifetime OPS, at the age of 25, is .842. The career OPS figures for Howard, Kingman and Dunn were .851, .780 and .854, respectively.
Here’s What Will Happen
Joey Gallo may very well post some awesome figures between the age of 25 and 32. At the age of 31 Howard hit 44 home runs; at 30 Kingman hit 48, MLB best figures. For four years in a row, between his age 25 and age 28 seasons, inclusive, Dunn hit 40 HRs on the nose every season.
However, this will also happen: Gallo’s swing will slow down. By the age of 37, Howard, Kingman and Dunn were all out of baseball. Unless Gallo learns to actually hit properly, he’ll be done by the age of 34, when Dunn finished.
Despite his 462 home runs, Adam Dunn struck out, on average, 193 times a year. On the other hand, he made over $112 million. Joey Gallo hasn’t even made one million in a year yet. My fear is he’ll keep swinging for the fences only to make his money.