MLB’s greatest hits of May 5-11
The top 10 MLB players who delivered the most impactful game-turning base hits in clutch situations during the past week.
The first rule of baseball is to hit the ball. But some guys do it better, and in more timely situations, than others. We call those guys heroes. During the past week, several MLB players delivered mission-critical base hits that turned the course of their games. It’s time they got some recognition.
This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week in MLB. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question.
Weighted Win Probability Added is one of that so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A three-run home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than a solo homer hit in the early stages of a blowout.
One point of clarification before we begin. We’re only focusing on hits here, not on outs. Although Weighted Win Probability Added does an excellent job of assessing the value of base hits, it is less adequate in quantifying the value of an out. One illustration from this past week shows why.
In the 11th inning of Boston’s game with Baltimore May 8, Jackie Bradley Jr. scaled the fence to make a home-run-stealing grab of Trey Mancini’s deep fly. Had Bradley not made the play, the game would have ended then and there in a Baltimore victory. Since Baltimore’s chances of winning the game stood at 58 percent before Mancini swung, Bradley’s catch logically should have been valued at the difference between that figure and 100 percent, meaning 42 percent. After all, he literally prevented an Oriole win.
Instead, Weighted Win Probability Added saw only the fact that the second out of an extra inning had been recorded against the home team, and on that basis, it assessed the value of 4 percent to Bradley’s play.
That decision made perfect sense to a computer, and none at all to any thinking person applying the data.
With that as an explanation, here are the 10 biggest hits of May 5-11. The heading shows the hit’s rank, the hitter, the date and the Win Probability Added.
MLB’s greatest hits of May 5-11
10. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, May 8, 41 percent
The visiting Texas Rangers and Pittsburgh Pirates were knotted 6-6 entering the ninth inning May 8. The Pirates had gradually built up a 6-2 advantage only to watch Texas rally with four runs in the top of the 8th inning to tie the game.
The big blow in that game-tying burst had been Hunter Pence’s two-out grand slam off Michael Feliz. But Pence’s home run merely tied the game, and while it did improve the visitors’ chances of winning by a healthy 37 percent, that still only created a 42 percent chance of the visitors actually winning the game.
When Ariel Jurado retired the Pirates in order in the bottom of the 8th, the odds began to shift in Texas’ favor., But they turned for real in the top of the 9th.
After Tyler Lyons retired Elvis Andrus on a leadoff bunt attempt, Nomar Mazara lined a single to center field. Joey Gallo fanned, and that brought up Kiner-Falefa in the game’s key moment.
On a 1-1 count, Lyons tried to trick Kiner-Falefa with a low changeup. But the batter yanked it down the left field line, allowing Mazara to race around the bases with the go-ahead run. As Kiner-Falefa stood on second bases, he had improved Texas’ chances of winning by 41 points, from 43 percent to 84 percent. One moment later the odds were even better when Rougned Odor followed with a home run to right that turned Texas’ one-run lead into the final 9-6 score.
MLB’s greatest hits of May 5-11
9. Willson Contreras, May 11, 42 percent
The Cubs-Brewers game was a battle of two teams effectively tied for first place in the NL Central, and both clubs played with a stubbornness reflecting that status. Zach Davies and Cole Hamels fought each other through seven innings, each allowing only a fifth-inning run.
Then the game entered the Land of Missed Opportunities. In the sixth, the Cubs put two runners on but hit into a double play. In the 8th, Javier Baez fanned with the go-ahead run in scoring position.
In the 11th, the Brewers moved the lead run to third, but Lorenzo Cain lined out. The Cubs loaded the bases that same inning, but Albert Almora failed to drive the winner home. In the 13th, Travis Shaw reached second with one out but could not advance further. Baez led off the bottom of the 13th with a double and reached third with one out, but could not score.
Finally, with one out in the bottom of the 15th, Contreras sent what remained of the diminishing crowd home, blasting a one-out pitch from Burch Smith, Milwaukee’s seventh pitcher, deep into the left-field bleachers for a home run.
The shot rewarded Tyler Chatwood for four innings of hitless relief. It was also the Cubs’ third walk-off homer in five games, following ninth inning shots by Kris Bryant and Jason Heyward Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
MLB’s greatest hits of May 5-11
8. Chris Taylor, May 5, 43 percent
Taylor’s Dodgers had spent most of the night trying to overcome the early 4-0 advantage built by the home-standing Padres. The Dodgers scored three times in the fourth to pull within a run but made no further headway against San Diego starter Nick Margevicious or reliever Phil Maton.
However, Robbie Erlin, the Padres’ third choice out of the pen, had less luck. Assigned with protecting the one-run lead through the 8th, Erlin battled Dodger leadoff hitter Max Muncy to a full count, then walked him on a low slider. That brought up Taylor.
Since Taylor stood there with a batting average in the low .200s, that didn’t send out alarm bells, even though he had already collected two hits on the night. But Taylor made it a personal night to remember by catching a 1-0 fastball and propelling it over the wall in deep left. It was only Taylor’s third home run of the season.
The blow not only gave LA a 5-4 lead, but it also shifted the Weighted Win Probability of a Dodger victory by 43 points, from just 33 percent to 76 percent.
As subsequent events would demonstrate, that shift did not ultimately prove to be consequential. More on that shortly. But even if it didn’t change the eventual outcome, Taylor’s homer was one of the momentum-shifting plays of the week.
MLB’s greatest hits of May 5-11
7. Raimel Tapia, May 5, 45 percent
Entering the bottom of the 8th inning in Denver, the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks appeared to have all but put away the Colorado Rockies. Arizona broke a 3-3 tie with German Marquez’ two-run home run in the 6th, then added a pair of insurance runs in the top of the 8th to lead 7-3.
Based on Win Expectancy, the Rockies came to bat in the bottom of the inning with a mere 3 percent chance of victory.
But that pivoted quickly off Diamondback reliever Archie Bradley. Trevor Story singled, and Daniel Murphy reached when third baseman Eduardo Escobar threw Murphy’s ground ball away.
That brought up Nolan Arenado, who singled to load the bases. When David Dahl followed with a walk, Story was forced home and Tapia carried the potential go-ahead run to the plate.
Tapia worked the count to 3-1, looked fastball, and got one over the heart of the plate. He didn’t miss, driving it over the head of Ketel Marte in dead center. That one blow cleared the bases, tying the game and shifting Colorado’s chances of winning by 45 percent, from just 37 percent to 82 percent.
They improved, even more, one batter later when Ryan McMahon smoked reliever Andrew Chafin for a single that sent Tapia across the plate with the go-ahead and eventual winning run in Colorado’s 8-7 comeback victory.
MLB’s greatest hits of May 5-11
6. Alex Bregman, May 5, 45 percent
With Justin Verlander on the mound, the Astros figured not to need much offense when they met the Los Angels Angels May 5 in Monterrey, Mexico. But plans don’t always work out; the Angels grabbed a 3-2 lead after just two innings and held it entering the fifth inning.
That’s when Bregman got to work.
The rally actually began when George Springer slipped a two-out base hit into center field off Angels starter Matt Harvey with Yuli Gurriel on first. A passed ball advanced both runners, and Jose Altuve walked, filling the bases and throwing the issue to Bregman.
A .286 hitter with nine home runs already on the season, Bregman was no easy out, as he quickly proved. He watched reliever Cam Bedrosian miss with two balls, then sat for the heater and got one in the heart of the strike zone. The result: a grand slam that propelled Houston from a 3-2 deficit into a 6-3 advantage.
Although it only came in the 5th inning, that home run effectively decided the day’s outcome. It shifted Houston’s chances of winning from just 39 percent to 84 percent, a 45 percentage point leap.
From that moment on, nothing that happened the rest of the afternoon mattered very much; Houston rolled on to win 10-4.
MLB’s greatest hits of May 5-11
5. Gio Urshela, May 7, 47 percent
Considering all the injuries it took to get Gio Urhsela some playing time, the Yankees are sure glad to have him around.
Since being called on to play third base, Urshela has provided a .349 batting average and 13 RBIs. It’s a big return on a bargain-basement pickup from Toronto last August.
The Yankees trailed visiting Seattle 4-2 entering the bottom of the ninth Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium. The Mariners had forged a 4-1 lead thanks to a pair of eighth-inning runs, which a run-scoring wild pitch in the bottom half of that inning only partially dented into.
When Urshela faced Mariners reliever Anthony Swarzak with one out and Gleyber Torres at first, he did represent the potential tying run. But the statistical odds of New York actually pushing that run plus the one they needed to win across the plate stood at a mere 11 percent.
If anything the odds fell, even more, when Urshela swung over a fastball then fouled off a pair of pitches to put himself in an 0-2 hole.
Then Swarzak made a mistake, locating a four-seamer waist-high in the center of the strike zone. Urshela swung and lifted it over the wall in dead center for a game-tying home run. As the home team in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth, New York’s chance to win had suddenly swung by 47 points, from just 11 percent to 58 percent.
D.J. LeMahieu’s line drive hit to right later in the inning ended the game in a 5-4 Yankee victory.
MLB’s greatest hits of May 5-11
4. David Peralta, May 9, 49 percent
It had been a rough week for the Diamondbacks, losers of three of their previous four games. In the process, the surprising D-Backs had lost a game in the standings to the division-leading and heavily favored, Los Angeles Dodgers.
So when the visiting Atlanta Braves carried a 2-1 lead into the bottom of the ninth inning in Phoenix, somebody had to do something.
Neither of the inning’s first two batters, Jarrod Dyson or Eduardo Escobar, could make any magic. Dyson whiffed and Escobar grounded harmlessly to short. That left only Peralta between Braves closer Luke Jackson and a save.
With two out, nobody on and a one-run lead, the math gave Atlanta a 95 percent chance to close out another Diamondback loss. But Peralta was having none of it. He missed a slider, took two balls, then hacked at a Jackson curve boring in on his fists and caught it flush.
Seconds later the ball was in the right field stands, the game was tied and Peralta had improved Arizona’s chances of securing that badly needed win by 49 percent, from only five percent to 54 percent entering extra innings.
In the bottom of the 10th, that’s precisely what the Diamondbacks did, Ketel Marte’s single driving across Nick Ahmed, who had opened the inning by drawing a walk.
MLB’s greatest hits of May 5-11
3. Starling Marte, May 5, 55 percent
It was one of those staff-wide pitcher’s duels, neither the visiting Oakland A’s nor the Pirates giving much of anything through nine innings. As a result, through a dozen pitchers, the game stood tied at 1-1 entering the home half of the 13th.
Approaching four hours of play on a Sunday afternoon getaway day for the A’s, somebody had to do something.
And even though he entered the game hitting in the low .200s and with just three home runs, there was no better candidate from a Pirate perspective than the team’s centerpiece center fielder, Marte.
But the situation grew worse before it grew better. In the top of the 13th, Kendrys Morales singled home Ramon Laureano and Stephen Piscotty singled Matt Chapman across, giving Oakland a 3-1 lead, With veteran closer, Fernando Rodney poised to take the mound, the situation seemed hopeless for the home team.
As a statistical matter, it virtually was. Pittsburgh’s chances of winning at that instant measured at four percent.
But Pirate hitters laid the necessary groundwork. With one out, Cole Tucker drove a base hit back up the middle, and Jung Ho Kang followed with a walk. Adam Frazier’s single to center sent Tucker across with a run that made the score 3-2. With only one out and the winning run on a base, the Pirates odds jumped to 45 percent. The victory wasn’t as implausible as it had appeared a moment earlier.
Rodney tried to get ahead of Marte with a fastball in the center of the plate. That was his fatal error. The Pirate slugger propelled it over the center field wall for a walk-off home run. An hour or so later, the Athletics were finally boarding a plane for home, sadder but possibly wiser, at least as it regards Starling Marte.
MLB’s greatest hits of May 5-11
2. Gerardo Parra, May 11, 62 percent
If ever Dave Martinez and the Nationals needed a good series, it was this weekend in Los Angeles.
The Nats entered the series a disappointing fourth in the NL East, having lost four straight, and with critics yelling for Martinez’ managerial head.
That talk quieted a bit when Patrick Corbin pitched Washington to a 6-0 win over the National League’s defending champs Thursday night. But LA won 5-0 Friday and led 2-0 through 7 innings of Saturday’s game, one in which Walker Buehler held the Nationals hitless after the fourth.
But when Dodger manager Dave Roberts lifted Buehler for Pedro Baez to start the eighth, stuff happened. Wilmer Difo singled, Howie Kendrick reached on an error, and an intentional walk following a sacrifice bunt loaded the bases.
Scott Alexander replaced Baez and gave up a run-producing single to Juan Soto, but then Dylan Floro struck out Anthony Rendon. Trailing 2-1 with the bases full but two out, Washington’s chances of victory stood at just 30 percent when Parra came to the plate.
He worked the count to 2-2, then Floro grooved a fastball that Parra sent into the stands in right-center field. With one swing, his grand slam turned the game solidly in Washington’s favor, handed the champs a second series defeat on their own turf, and silenced, somewhat anyway, the team’s critics.
MLB’s greatest hits of May 5-11
1. Hunter Renfroe, May 5, 76 percent
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When last we left the Padres and Dodgers, Chris Taylor had slammed an eighth-inning home run to lift Los Angeles from a 4-3 deficit to a 5-4 lead.
On another day, that might have sealed San Diego’s fate. But not on this Sunday. In the bottom of the 9th, the Padres staged a rally of their own, and this one left no opportunity for a Dodger rally.
With closer Kenley Jansen on the mound, Eric Hosmer entered the box, the math giving San Diego only a 13 percent chance of coming from behind to win. But Hosmer poked an opposite-field single and Manuel Margot followed by beating out a bunt, putting the tying and winning runs on base with none out. When Wil Myers also bunted for a hit, San Diego had the sacks full.
Then Jansen stiffened. He got Greg Garcia to go down looking at a 3-2 fastball at the knees, then forced Francisco Mejia to pop out harmlessly to first base.
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With the pitcher’s spot due up, Renfroe was called on to pinch hit. In a one-run, bases loaded, two out in the bottom of the 9th, the odds of a come-from-behind victory are just 24 percent. But Renfroe improved them drastically. He took a first-pitch cutter over the plate, then got a second cutter and shot it over the left field wall for a game-ending grand slam.